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Florida State House Districts (2024): HD 9, HD 12, HD 22, HD 28, HD 29 [1]

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Date: 2023-05-19

Next up in my state legislative series in the Florida House of Representatives. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 85R – 35D, meaning that the Democrats need a net gain of at least twenty-six seats for control, with a net gain of exactly twenty-five seats resulting in a tied chamber. This is admittedly very unrealistic, given the tall order. However, flipping the chamber isn’t the only possible goal for Dems, another goal would be to break the recently established supermajority in the chamber. In order to do this, the Dems would only need to have a net gain of six seats. While breaking a supermajority isn’t necessarily as helpful as it would be in other states, being that the GOP has complete control of FL government, it would still be useful in that it could stop the legislature from amending the state constitution. (And note that breaking the GOP supermajority in the the FL State Senate would be much more difficult, given that only half the chamber is up each cycle).

As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection. Members of the FL House can serve a maximum of eight years, so some seats will be open due to term-limits. I am also assuming that the environment will be more favorable to Dems in 2024 than it was 2022, given how bad it was for Dems in 2022.

Today, I am looking at five house districts: HD 9, HD 12, HD 22, HD 28, and HD 29, all located in the northern part of the state.

Florida House District 9

FL HD 9 is located on the state’s northern border with Georgia and contains areas east of Tallahassee as well as parts of the city proper. HD 9 moved to the left at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Barack Obama by a fairly competitive margin of about 5.5 points in 2012 to supporting Hillary Clinton by a larger 10-point margin and Joe Biden by an even larger margin of almost 14 points. The state house races were not especially close, with Democrat Loranne Ausley winning the open seat by about 12 points in 2016 and Democrat Allison Tant winning the open seat by between 15 and 16 points in 2020 (the Republicans did not contest the seat in 2018). The 2022 redistricting made HD 9 several points redder, with the district expanding further east. In particular, Biden’s margin shrank to just under 10 points under the new boundaries. Despite this, the GOP did not contest the seat in 2022. Tant should be favored this cycle, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race I’m classifying HD 9 as Lean Democrat, though I could see shifting it to Likely Democrat if the Republicans don’t seriously contest it.

Florida House District 12

FL HD 12 is based in the southwestern part of the Jacksonville area. HD 12 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 15, which trended heavily towards the Dems at the presidential level in recent years, as it went from supporting Romney by between 12 and 13 points to supporting Trump by just under 9 points in 2016 and by a razor-thin margin of just 9 votes in 2020. HD 15 also featured a very close state house race in 2018, with Republican Wyman Duggan winning the open seat by less than 2 points. (The Democrats did not even contest the district in previous cycles.) The 2020 state house race was not as close, with Duggan winning reelection by between 7 and 8 points. HD 12 is several points redder than HD 15, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to roughly 6 points in the former district. Duggan ran unopposed in 2022, as Dems failed to contest HD 12. Duggan should be heavily favored the cycle, but the seat does warrant notice, assuming, of course that the Dems run a candidate, as it would be the first contested race under the new boundaries. I’m classifying HD 12 as Likely Republican.

Florida House District 22

FL HD 22 is located on the Gulf Coast and contains western parts of Gainesville, as well as parts of Newberry and Trenton. HD 22 largely overlaps with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 21, which was highly competitive at the presidential level, with Mitt Romney carrying the district by about 4.5 points, Clinton carrying it by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes, and Biden carrying it by about 4 points. HD 21 also had a competitive state house race in 2016, with Republican Chuck Clemons winning the open seat by a little more than 7 points, and even closer state house races in 2018 and 2020, with Clemons narrowly winning reelection by about 3 and 2 points, respectively. HD 22 is a few points redder than HD 21, as Trump would have narrowly carried the former district in 2020 by about a percentage point. The 2022 state house race was not particularly competitive, with Clemons winning by about 12 points (unlike his previous races), though this isn’t too surprising given how awful Democratic turnout was that cycle. It should be noted that HD 22 will be open for 2024, as Clemons is term-limited. With a (presumably) stronger environment for Democrats and no incumbent, the district should be competitive, but I’m still giving the GOP the edge, given that Trump narrowly won the seat in 2020. I’m classifying HD 22 as Lean Republican. At least two Republicans have already filed to run this cycle: Robert Woody, who has previously served on various commissions and university boards of trustees, and former Alachua County Commissioner Raemi Eagle-Glenn, while no Democrats have filed yet.

Florida House District 28

FL HD 28 is based on the east coast and contains the community of Daytona Beach. HD 28 largely overlaps with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 25 and HD 26. HD 25 was a safe Republican district, with Trump carrying the seat by 22 points in 2020 and Republican Tom Leek being reelected by nearly 20 points in 2018 and by nearly 28 points 2020, after having first won the seat by about 25.5 points in 2016. HD 26, on the other hand was a traditionally Dem-leaning district that swung heavily to the right, having gone from easily supporting Obama by about 16 points in 2012 to just narrowly supporting Clinton by less than 2 points in 2016 to narrowly supporting Trump by a little more than a percentage point in 2020. Republican Elizabeth Fetterhoff managed to flip the seat in 2018, as she narrowly defeated incumbent Democrat Patrick Henry by a razor-thin 61 vote margin and was reelected by a larger 6-point margin in 2020. (Henry first won the open seat by nearly 6 points in 2018). Not surprisingly, HD 28 is in-between HD 25 and HD 26 partisan-wise, as it would have supported Trump in 2020 by about 6 points. The 2022 state house race for HD 28 was not competitive at all, with Leek winning by nearly 24 points. However, the district is open this cycle, as Leek is term-limited. HD 28 has the potential to be competitive, given the lack of an incumbent and that it is a single-digit Trump 2020 seat. I’m classifying the district as Likely Republican. One Republican has already filed to run, Ormond Beach Mayor Bill Partington. No Democrats have filed to run yet.

Florida House District 29

FL HD 29 is located northeast of Orlando and contains the community of Deltona. HD 29 largely overlaps with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 27, which swung very heavily to the right in recent years, with Trump carrying the district by about 11.5 points in 2016 and a slightly larger margin of about 13 points in 2020, after Obama had narrowly carried it by less than 2 points in 2012. HD 27 featured a marginally competitive state house race in 2018, with Republican David Santiago winning reelection by about 11 points, after being reelected in 2016 by a larger 18-point margin. In 2020, Republican Webster Barnaby won the open seat by a little more than 12 points, running a few points ahead of Santiago’s 2018 margin. HD 29 is several points bluer than HD 27, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to just over 7 points. In particular, the new district removed the eastern parts from HD 27 (which extended to the east coast) among other smaller changes. In 2022, Barnaby easily won reelection in HD 29 by about 19 points. Barnaby should be fairly safe, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given the somewhat close 2020 presidential result and that turnout should be better for Democrats this cycle (than it was in 2022). I’m classifying HD 29 as Likely Republican.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the current districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/19/2170173/-Florida-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-9-HD-12-HD-22-HD-28-HD-29

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