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The 'Small' state strategy Dems need to focus on [1]

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Date: 2023-05-18

Photo credit to 538

Caveat: Pretend it’s 2020 and you care about the census.

Electoral College:

Yay! They did it they won! Joe Biden managed to win the Presidency. He did it through a combination of rebuilding Hillary’s vaunted “Blue Wall” in the upper midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) while padding the stats with upsets in Arizona, Georgia, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. All told, Biden won 25 states, Washington DC, Maine’s CD 1, Nebraska’s CD 2, and a 4.5% margin in the popular vote. Final score: 306-232, the exact same count as Hillary’s election, just reversed which fascinates me to no end. Great stuff. If you’re the democratic party you’ll take that to the bank every day of the week.

But you cant. You cant even get that exact result in 2024, thanks to population shifts and re-apportionment. If you plugged all those same voting areas into a computer simulation of 2024, Biden wins 303-235. Republicans netted 3 votes from the census. And sure, that’s still a good enough win for the White House. But it’s emblematic of the larger issue.

The four highest-population Democrat-voting states, California, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, all lost population sufficient to lose a congressional district and electoral vote this cycle. Reliable-red Texas gained two of those and “swingstate that’s rapidly falling away” Florida gained another.

With Florida off the board for Presidential elections at least in the short term, Pennsylvania and Georgia suddenly become the biggest “swing” states in the game. Take those away and Biden wins 2024 by a single electoral vote (Hello, the city of Omaha).

The States:

It’s not just electoral votes, either. New York and Illinois are Democratic-controlled at the state legislature level. They’re the most powerful states that can gerrymander blue seats in congress. They also serve as proving grounds for Democratic policy priorities like labor protections, abortion, and recently the democratic process itself.

That 3-vote loss carries major implications. Older voters vote Republican. Younger voters vote Democrat. What happens when the young leave a blue state behind for greener (and currently redder) pastures? What happens if there isnt a surge in youth turnout and a wildly unpopular Supreme Court ruling in 2022? Does John Fetterman get elected to the Senate? Maybe, but what about Catherine Cortez-Masto, who was re-elected by less than 1%. Considering the margins, it’s hard to imagine Tim Walz, Josh Shapiro, or Gretchen Witmer would have the legislatures they do currently if just a tiny few things had gone the GOP’s way in 2022.

Democrats need to start looking for the NEXT thing. Complacency kills in this business, as they learned in 2016. While Republicans are desperately trying to claw back a bluing Arizona, they are also on the offensive. They came within 3% of ousting Governor Phil Murphy in New Jersey and fully took control of Virginia in 2021. They also made a good contest of the Oregon Gubernatorial election in 2022. That never-say-die attitude they have in a lot of these areas may be cute, but it’s also effective. It may burn resources in a bad year, but you dont know if you’re going to have a bad year until you’ve had it. You miss 100% of the shots and whatnot.

The Money:

Citizens United was one of the biggest poison pills in the history of our democracy. Free-flowing money influencing elections? It’s terrible. But right now, it’s actually a free tool Democrats are just realizing they can use. Bernie Sanders ran two entire Presidential campaigns on small-dollar donations alone. Liz Warren followed him in 2020, but her fundraising prowess eventually waned.

Jamie Harrison raised over ONE HUNDRED AND NINE MILLION DOLLARS in his unsuccessful bid to oust Lindsey Graham from his South Carolina Senate seat. Amy McGrath and her affiliated PACs raised over $80 million so she could lose to Mitch McConnell by 20 points. While Republicans are ubiquitous with their anti-tax billionaire benefactors to the point where they feel no shame for openly advocating for their rich masters whims, it’s increasingly seeming like DEMOCRATS might have the money advantage in the short term.

Part of that is that for right now, the Dems are the united party. “We support Biden/Harris even though some of us dont want to because the alternative is just insane”. I think an underrated part of it is the prevalence of grifts on the right. “We build the wall” siphoned $25 million in donations out of vulnerable peoples wallets. The MyPillow guy, Alex Jones, these guys may or may not believe in their own nonsense but what matters is tens of millions of dollars from our conservative great uncles goes to them each year. I also count donations to mega-churches and conservative televangelists in this. The merch as well. Trump hats and flags with weird stripes and gun-themed bumper stickers cost money. Money that goes not to a PAC but Steve who owns a print shop.

So that’s money that 1) is coming from a person clearly willing to donate 2) is politically motivated. And while some of that action money eventually filters through to individual races, it’s greedy owners take their slices of the pie first. The Left has grifts too, but right now vulnerable givers on the right are far more likely to spend their money in inefficient ways, thus diluting their dollars in the political sphere.

The Plan:

Democrats gotta start looking elsewhere guys. I realize I just criticized Jamie Harrison donors but the idea of expanding the Democratic map isnt absurd. I like what I’m seeing out of Biden spending in North Carolina, Democrats current biggest tease. But I think we need to expand the strategy.

A small state (and small election) plan.

It’s time the national dems started looking to broaden their horizons. Mary Peltola opened the door in Alaska, a state Trump won by 10 points. But now that they’re operating a new election system, Democrats would be idiots not to keep pressing in the state that’s actually trending blue. It also has a ton of independent voters.

Same with Montana, a state with a Democratic Senator that just had a two-term Democrat governor. It’s a growing state, by virtue of its gaining a congressional seat in 2022. While its congressional seats are fairly gerrymandered, a Democrat almost took one seat, losing by just 7,000 votes in an R+1 national environment!

Maine is another small state, though it’s the oldest state by average age in the nation, which isnt great for dems. It does, however, have an impressive amount of independent voters and a republican senator that sucks. I’m not saying send another $80 million to Sarah Gideon but I think the state party needs to start right now thinking about who is going to run against Susan Collins and who will eventually attempt to succeed Angus King.

Democrats have all but MAXED out their Senate hopes in states Biden won. Collins I believe is the only Republican left, meanwhile, Manchin, Brown, and Tester are in for the election of their lives. It’s time to get in the game and expand the maps. Call up Jason Kander in Missouri. Look into Kansas, who’s Dem governor is one of the most popular in the country.

There’s a small state strategy then theres the small RACE strategy. We see what can happen when one party has dominance in a state: Florida is speedrunning the least popular, most blatantly f****** policies in America, while Minnesota is giving kids free lunch. Even in these states where you know a statewide win is a long way off, the party needs very much to get back in the race with these small elections. Winning the mayoral race of Jacksonville is a nice start. Some of the places that deserve attention:

Nebraska, where Megan Hunt and Michaela Cavanagh are being heroes filibustering for trans rights and abortion rights. They wouldnt have to work so hard if the Dem-aligned members of Nebraska’s legislature had a few more seats.

Montana: Where Zooey Zephyr was chastised like a child for daring to speak up for her own rights. See my previous arguments. Montana is a place where short-term investment can lead to long-term gains.

Pennsylvania: Good god get Josh Shapiro Dem majorities in both houses of the legislatures and watch the fireworks!

The finale

The national party and national organizations finally started sometime around 2017 to realize that investing in the grassroots can yield a better crop! They need to bear down on that. We gotta stop focusing on the cool Dem senator from a Sapphire state and look inward. Dont send a cent to anyone in the race for the California Senate. NOT A CENT. Same with Maryland, Delaware, Hawaii. Be wary before backing up the dump truck to bury Ted Cruz in blue dollars.

The rural realignment has been a bitch for the party. Time to get off the mat and try again. There was a democratic senator in NORTH DAKOTA in 2018. We can do it again, somewhere.

Ask yourselves, who is your state legislator? State senator? Who’s on your SCHOOL BOARD? We gotta keep building from the ground up. I understand it’s hard. My next story is on my journey running for school board in a red town.

I honestly believe the weight of all these abortion and trans laws is tipping us to an inflection point of some kind. If it’s the electoral kind, we HAVE to be ready.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/18/2167184/-The-Small-state-strategy-Dems-need-to-focus-on

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