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Quick Explainer: Ukraine may be moving to surround the heights north of Bakhmut [1]
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Date: 2023-05-18
You may have heard about Wagner Group’s leader Prigozhin all but begging the Russian Regular Army mobiks to hold out for just a few days in Sakko i Vantsetti. A few hours later, the Russians withdrew from the city.
What I haven’t seen much commentary on is why that small village was so important that Prigozhin was bringing it up by name. Sakko i Vantsetti is about 5km north of Soledar, and about 10km north of the northern suburbs of Bakhmut. It was about as far as the Russians advanced after they took Soledar in the past few months.
Just to be clear, the terms “Western Heights” and “Northern Heights” are just the names I assigned to the heights around Bakhmut to make them easier to sort out in my head, they’re not anything official, but the Western Heights with Khromove are the heights which Ukraine currently holds on the western edge of Bakhmut, and the Northern Heights are the hills Ukraine is launching an offensive towards for the past week.
When you zoom in, it becomes clearer why Sakko i Vantsetti is so important.
The village sits nestled between 3 small rivers, making it a strong defensive position.
Now that Ukraine captured Sakko i Vantsetti, it can advance south on the T0513 highway. It’s only 5km to the critical intersection between Soledar and the highway, and there are no natural obstacles in the way.
The Bakhmutovka River (really a stream) runs parallel to the highway on the left (east), helping to shield a Ukrainian advance southward.
What's more, look at the overall operational context of ongoing known Ukrainian attacks.
You can see how the attack from Sakko i Vantsetti is all but advancing on the rear of the Russian position defending the Northern Heights.
if the Ukrainian forces can capture the crossroad between Soledar and the T0513 Highway, it can then advance on Blahodatne, Krasno Hora, and threaten to encircle the Russian salient on the Northern Heights.
The Northern Heights dominate the northern half of Bakhmut, permitting Ukrainian artillery to target anything that moves for km. Losing it would be a catastrophe for Russia, also exposing Wagner’s northern flank.
Losing Sakko I Vantsetti should be regarded as a crisis for the Russian troops in Bakhmut. It’s unclear if they understand the magnitude of the danger they are in.
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