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Biden v Trump: Round Two [1]
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Date: 2023-05-18
There are lots of polls on the relative unpopularity of both President Biden and ex-President Trump. There are not too many polls showing the actual 2024 match up. One of the more interesting sites is Race to the White House. This shows Biden beating Trump, and any of the major Republican candidates.
However, not too many polls, this early, that matter. As everyone knows, national polls are not the key. State electoral votes are what determines the outcome of a presidential election. So, lets start with the states Biden narrowly won, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden has a slim, but not insignificant lead in all of these.
Arizona Biden 44.2 Trump 42.0
Georgia Biden 44.8 Trump 42.4
Pennsylvania Biden 43.7 Trump 39.6
Wisconsin Biden 47.7 Trump 43.2
While none of these are decisive leads, none of these are, “Let’s go to a recount close,” either. This is a good start. If Biden hold all of these, the election is all but over.
Some of the other polling might be even more interesting, though. Florida, Iowa and Ohio still have a distinctive Red tilt. Trump leads by between 3% and 7%. While this is not good, it does not change the projected outcome. There are however, two how should I say this, potential Red menaces, at least menaces to any Republican comeback, North Carolina and Texas.
North Carolina Biden 44.6. Trump 44.4
Texas Biden 43.1 Trump 44.1
North Carolina would be a nice pick-up. This is not a shock as North Carolina has been at least competitive for years. Neither Senator is up for re-election, so nothing could change there. On the other hand, if even a few of the 14 Congressional seats would flip Blue, the House could be within reach.
One. Point. Spread. In. Texas.
A Texas flip would be a Republican disaster. Thirty-Eight Congressional Seats are potentially up for grabs, more than enough to flip the House. Then there is Ted Cruz. Tied at the hip as he is to Trump, this seat could be competitive again should Trump continue to stumble.
Yes, Texas is the forever, “Just out of reach, prize”. But, as they say when selling stocks, “Past performance is not necessarily predictive of future results”. Planning, execution, and effort all make a difference. Further, it is not as if everything is going perfectly under Republican leadership in Texas.
There is one other thing about Texas. If Texas goes Blue, Texas is likely to stay Blue. Demographic changes combined with more popular Democratic policies could make this a long-term flip. Simply by de-Gerrymandering, Texas would be the vehicle to flip the House to Blue. Without Texas, there is no practical path to Red control of the Federal Government.
None of the other currently Blue or Red states show any major indication of switching political allegiance. There are, however, more light Blue, than light Red opportunities available to switch. Single seats in both Nebraska and Maine are traditionally close. Nonetheless, there are more signs of hope than of disaster. So, we cannot ignore any opportunities, neither for Blue to Red, nor vice-versa. The futureis not determined by signs, but by actions.
Democrats should contest for every vote, of course, but these polls may give an indication of where to focus a little more effort.
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