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Russian grain deal ending? What is happening on Snake Island? [1]

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Date: 2023-05-17

It seems the Ukrainian — or should I say Russian? — grain deal is coming to an end.

From the Daily Telegraph

Last Ukrainian ship protected by current Black Sea grain deal leaves port The last ship left a Ukrainian port under the Black Sea grain initiative, which allows the safe passage of Ukrainian grain across the sea, the day before Russia could walk away from the deal. Russia has repeatedly threatened not to extend the deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN in July 2022, further unless obstacles to its own grain and fertiliser exports were removed. The DSM Capella left the port of Chornomorsk on Wednesday carrying 30,000 tonnes of corn and was on its way to Turkey, according to data issued by the United Nations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday: "There are still a lot of open questions regarding our part of the deal. Now a decision will have to be taken.”

I think that Russia has decided that Ukraine has got more out of the deal than Russia, and in their zero-sum world, that isn’t good.

Does it matter?

Back when Russia controlled Snake Island and the waters around Crimea, they were in a position to stop any ship heading in or out of Ukrainian ports apart from Izmail on Danube.

Now, all they can do is threaten ships with long range missiles and maybe threaten the ports. But if Ukraine is able to shoot down hypersonic missiles over Kyiv, they could also protect Odessa and nearby ports.

From Odessa ports it is 130km to Snake Island on the edge of Romanian waters. Would Russia fire on say, Egyptian owned, Panama registered grain ships carrying grain to Africa?

Could they? The ships would be 170km from Crimea. Any Russian ships sent nearer would be taken out by Ukrainian missiles, as would Russian planes.

There is no mention of the current status of Snake Island in the press. I assume it is unoccupied. Would Ukraine want to put anti aircraft and anti ship missiles on the island to guard the southern approaches to Odessa and help protect grain carrying ships?

And if the deal lapses, will Russia have to stop exporting fertiliser? Will Crimean grain ships be impounded in Istanbul for carrying stolen grain?

Ukraine could say: “We won’t attack grain ships going to Russia, so the deal isn’t really needed anymore”.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/17/2169809/-Russian-grain-deal-ending-What-is-happening-on-Snake-Island

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