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Ukraine Invasion Day 448: more fighter jet support for Ukraine [1]

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Date: 2023-05-16

UK and Dutch Pledge Fighter Jet Support for Ukraine: more fighters, more counter offensives. Meanwhile bombardment continues.

“The Prime Minister and Prime Minister Rutte agreed they would work to build (an) international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F16 jets,” a spokesman for Sunak’s Downing Street office said in a statement following a meeting at the Council of Europe Summit in Iceland.

⚡️CNN: US official says Russia 'expending more munitions to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense' Russia has been using up more munitions recently in order to both "overwhelm and confuse" Ukraine's air defense, an unnamed U.S. official familiar with the matter told CNN.

Russia conducted another large-scale drone and missile strike on the night of May 15 to 16. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched six Kh-47 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles from six MiG-31K aircraft at Kyiv, as well as nine Kalibr cruise missiles and 10 land-based S-400 and Iskander-M missiles at other rear areas of Ukraine.[13] Ukrainian air defense shot down all missiles, including all six Kinzhals (repeatedly touted by Russian forces as unstoppable) and nine total drones, including six Shahed-131/136s.[14] It is unclear which systems Ukrainian forces used to shoot down the Kinzhals, but Ukrainian officials previously attributed the defeat of a Kinzhal missile to US-provided Patriot air defense system on May 4.[15] Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev noted that the missile strike on Kyiv is the eighth in the month of May alone.[16] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) notably claimed that one of the Kinzhals struck a Patriot air defense system in Kyiv.[17] An unidentified US defense official told CNN that the Patriot system has likely suffered damage but has not been destroyed and that the US is still assessing the extent of the damage.[18]

No war-monger, the cautious Tom Nichols urges the West to step up providing even more weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. Glad to see this ⁦ @RadioFreeTom ⁩ https://t.co/AJRf0x80XU

Ukraine isn’t losing, but it isn’t winning either . Putin is unlikely to sue for peace unless he faces defeat. There is probably only one way for Australia to have a decisive influence over the outcome: give Ukraine some of the retired F/A-18 Hornet fighter bombers it still owns and has failed to sell.

The obstacle belts Russia is constructing are just that, obstacles. A trench doesn't need to be perfect, dragons teeth impossible to move, nor a minefield undetectable. They just need to obstruct you and give time to defenders to exploit your slowed/stopped movement. https://t.co/Z3PeP5Odny

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued limited assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the vicinity of Masyutivka (about 13km northeast of Kupyansk) and Novoselivske (about 16km northwest of Svatove).[37] Russian milbloggers continued to claim that unspecified elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) captured Masyutivka and pushed Ukrainian forces across the western bank of the Oskil River on May 15.[38] Geolocated Russian footage published on May 15 showed Russian drones striking Ukrainian positions east of Masyutivka.[39] Former Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russians have not achieved significant advances in the Kupyansk direction.[40] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions in Synkivka (about 7km northeast of Kupyansk).[41]

Russian forces are reportedly deploying additional manpower and equipment from Belarus to reinforce their positions in Luhansk Oblast. Independent monitoring organization The Belarusian Hajun Project reported the deployment of military cargo from Brest Oblast, Belarus, in the direction of Luhansk Oblast on May 14.[42] The Hajun Project reported that the train is transferring about 40 pieces of military equipment and at least 200 servicemen to Gukovo station in Rostov Oblast, Russia, which is about 4km east of occupied Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff and Haidai confirmed that Russian forces began to redeploy additional trained forces from Belarus.[43] Haidai added that most of the arriving personnel are newly-mobilized forces or convicts and are deploying to the Kreminna and Svatove areas.[44]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces have made marginal gains within Bakhmut as of May 16. Geolocated footage published on May 15 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southwestern Bakhmut along the road that leads to Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut).[47] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 15 that Wagner fighters advanced 220m in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces currently control 1.59 square kilometers of the city.[48] Russian sources claimed on May 15 and 16 that Wagner fighters have cleared several remaining contested areas in western Bakhmut and control at least half of these areas.[49] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner fighters will likely announce that they have cut the route from Bakhmut to Khromove by May 17.[50] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) and Hryhorivka (9km northwest of Bakhmut) on May 15 and 16.[51] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian aviation units destroyed an overpass near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces used the bridge to transfer supplies and reinforcements along the T0504 into Bakhmut.[52] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations in Bakhmut and conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Ivanivske.[53]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces are continuing to panic about maintaining their positions in the east (left) bank Kherson Oblast ahead of anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensives. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published a video on May 15 claiming that Russian airborne (VDV) artillery units are shelling Ukrainian infantry units in forested areas on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[59] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that there are ”witch hunts” among Russian troops operating in Kherson Oblast because many accuse each other of exposing Russian positions to Ukrainian forces by cooperating with Russian volunteers or reporting about the situation on the ground.[60] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched four KAB-500 bombs from four Su-35 fighter aircraft at Beryslav and Kizomys on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River.[61] Russian forces also shelled the west bank Kherson Oblast 86 times, and reportedly used incendiary munition to target Kherson City.[62]

www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/16/2169703/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-448-more-fighter-jet-support-for-Ukraine

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