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Ukraine Invasion Day 447: F-16 fighter jet training in the UK this Summer [1]
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Date: 2023-05-15
Debris from Russian missiles, shot down by Ukrainian air defence during the night attack, fell in four districts of Kyiv, local authorities say. Kyiv zoo was damaged, according to reports. Social media users also report damage to residential buildings.
Ukrainian Officials have stated that tonight’s Missile Attack on Kyiv was “Exceptional in its Density” and that it appears to have been attempting to Target a number of Ukrainian Air Defense Sites with Drones as well as Cruise and Ballistic Missiles from multiple directions. pic.twitter.com/59ly1y5aYT
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on May 14 and 15 confirming the provision of more Western military aid. The Ukrainian and French governments issued a joint statement on May 15 announcing that France will train and equip “several” Ukrainian battalions with “tens” of armored vehicles and light tanks, including the AMX-10RC.[30] The joint statement reiterated that the French government would continue providing political, financial, humanitarian, and military aid to Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” The UK government confirmed on May 15 that Sunak will announce another round of military aid to Ukraine, including the provision of unspecified long-range attack drones with ranges of over 200 kilometers, and will deliver them to Ukraine over the coming months.[31] Sunak announced that the UK will begin developing a program to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets and will begin training an initial cohort of pilots over the summer.
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 15 Equipment losses above 7-day average in dollar terms DEVELOPMENT: $1.2B in the last 30 days ⬆ $56M reported today ⬆ Artillery, air defence systems & missiles make up the bulk of today's reported losses 📈
https://t.co/7N4gQg6qRA pic.twitter.com/1Wa9T5Hoaf
Ukrainian intelligence reported that approximately 152,000 Russian troops in southern Ukraine continue defensive efforts ahead of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.[50] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Chernyak stated on May 15 that Russian forces are not withdrawing from Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.[51] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces have deployed an unspecified small missile ship with eight Kalibr missiles to the Sea of Azov for the first time since the start of the war in order to defend the Kerch Strait Bridge.[52]
Russian forces continued ground assaults in Bakhmut and its outskirts on May 15, while Ukrainian forces are continuing defensive operations in the Bakhmut direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations within 9km northwest of Bakhmut in the direction of Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka; within 14km southwest of Bakhmut in the direction of Ivanivske and Predtechyne; and in Bakhmut.[40] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in 30 combat clashes in the Bakhmut direction and that Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions over 300 times.[41] The Russian MoD claimed that units of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps) are fighting in the vicinity of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Bila Hora ( 13km southwest of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and Hryhorivka (9km northwest of Bakhmut).[43] A Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian units of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps) lost positions southwest of Ivanivske and noted that Ukrainian forces are trying to reach the northwestern outskirts of Klishchiivka (about 7km southwest of Bakhmut).[44] Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner mercenaries advanced by 130 meters in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces only control 1.6 square kilometers of the city.[45] Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces advanced in southwestern Bakhmut. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Wagner is focusing on clearing the private residential area in western Bakhmut likely in response to losing positions southwest of the Berkhivs’ke Reservoir.[46] The milblogger claimed that Wagner will attempt to push through the residential area and reach the Bakhmut-Khromove route in the coming days.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and established a bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River.[32] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that a Russian assault group captured Masyutivka on May 14 and established a bridgehead on the opposite bank of the Oskil River immediately west of the settlement.[33] Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted a successful raid on Ukrainian positions near Masyutivka and later withdrew, and that reports about the establishment of a Russian bridgehead are unconfirmed.[34] ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation that Russian forces captured Masyutivka or have established positions anywhere on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River. Russian milbloggers argued that the Russian capture of Masyutivka would be tactically insignificant given that Ukrainian forces hold elevated positions in the area and could easily fire on Russian attempts to advance.[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 15 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka as well as Synkivka (9km northeast of Kupyansk).[36]
x Over the past few days , there have been a succession of reports about Ukrainian advances around #Bakhmut. Multiple reports indicate that Russian forces have withdrawn to positions further to the north of the city in the vicinity of the Berkhivs'ke Reservoir. 1/25 pic.twitter.com/xiw8RexwUy — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) May 15, 2023
2/ There has been almost a year of fighting over . It is a battle over a small city, with minimal strategic value, but which has attained high political value because of several visits by the Ukrainian president, and Russian desires for a symbolic ‘victory’. There has been almost a year of fighting over #Bakhmut . It is a battle over a small city, with minimal strategic value, but which has attained high political value because of several visits by the Ukrainian president, and Russian desires for a symbolic ‘victory’.
3/ The Ukrainian assaults, resulting in Ukrainian territory liberated from the Russians, are some of the most significant observed in 2023. The Battle of Bakhmut
4/ There are several possible explanations for the Ukrainian attacks around Bakhmut and their success in seizing back ground. I will explore each of them below and then provide an overall assessment of what we have seen (noting we only see a partial picture). There are several possible explanations for the Ukrainian attacks around Bakhmut and their success in seizing back ground. I will explore each of them below and then provide an overall assessment of what we have seen (noting we only see a partial picture).
5/ First, it could be just a local counterattack. This is one possible explanation for the events of the last few days. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to learn and exploit opportunities in a much better fashion than the Russians have throughout the war.
6/ Adding to the case that this is just a local counterattack is that the northern Ukrainian assault was not accompanied by other large attacks in other sectors of the city, or in other areas near Bakhmut. Adding to the case that this is just a local counterattack is that the northern Ukrainian assault was not accompanied by other large attacks in other sectors of the city, or in other areas near Bakhmut.
7/ While Russian milbloggers reported Ukrainian troops attacking towards Khromove (3km west of Bakhmut), and the 3rd Brigade has attacked south of Bakhmut, I don’t think that this offers any real evidence of a much broader operational push.
8/ These are more likely to be counterattacks that are part of the normal conduct of a larger defensive operation, where local commanders are given the authority to attack where the opportunity presents.
9/ A second explanation might be that the Russians have culminated. Military doctrine defines culmination as "the point at which continuing the attack is no longer possible and the force must consider reverting to a defensive posture or attempting an operational pause".
10/ It has been clear for some weeks that the 2023 offensive overseen by Gerasimov, which is almost a template of his 2022 invasion model (4-5 axes of advance, none of which with decisive force), has been a failure. It has been clear for some weeks that the 2023 offensive overseen by Gerasimov, which is almost a template of his 2022 invasion model (4-5 axes of advance, none of which with decisive force), has been a failure.
11/ Russia has not captured any significant objective of military or strategic value and has occupied a very small additional part of Ukraine. It has also squandered massive amounts of manpower and material which Russia needs to defend those parts of Ukraine it occupies.
12/ So, are the Russian losses north of Bakhmut the initial signs that the Russian forces in this area have culminated and are unable to sustain offensive operations? Possibly.
13/ But, at the same time as Russian forces were withdrawing under pressure from the Ukrainian assault, they continued to make small gains in fighting through the central and western parts of Bakhmut. Multiple sources report that Russia continues to attack in these areas.
14/ Consequently, while the Russians many be close to culminating in their attack on Bakhmut, they retain some tactical momentum. However, the overall Russian offensive in the east - an operational level campaign - probably has culminated.
15/ A final explanation might be that the Ukrainian counter offensive has begun. The only certainties about the Ukrainian offensives to come are that they will occur somewhere in Ukraine, probably in multiple locations and that they will probably surprise us (and the Russians).
16/ It will only be in retrospect that we will fully understand when the official ‘Preliminary Phase’ of their offensive operations has begun. Strategic planning, preparation and shaping began back in 2022.
17/ General Zaluznhy telegraphed the offensives when he stated in a Decemeber 2022 that: “May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me, it’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year.” General Zaluznhy telegraphed the offensives when he stated in a Decemeber 2022 that: “May the soldiers in the trenches forgive me, it’s more important to focus on the accumulation of resources right now for the more protracted and heavier battles that may begin next year.”
18/ So, for all the reports of strikes and ‘shaping’ activities being undertaken by the Ukrainians over the past few weeks, the reality is that the Ukrainians have been conducting strategic shaping for six months in preparation for their next series of large offensives.
19/ My inclination is the #Bakhmut gains do not indicate the Ukrainian offensives have begun. But, the defence of Bakhmut could be a key element of the Ukrainian preparations for their offensive because of how it has fixed Russians attention and drawn in Russian forces. My inclination is thegains do not indicate the Ukrainian offensives have begun. But, the defence of Bakhmut could be a key element of the Ukrainian preparations for their offensive because of how it has fixed Russians attention and drawn in Russian forces.
20/ The reality is that we only ever have a partial view of events in war. No matter the level of transparency offered by new military and civilian sensors and analysis, the fog and friction of war remains a key element of battles, operations and wars.
21/ Having lots of information does not always make us wiser about what is actually occurring on the ground. As such, with incomplete information it is difficult to draw a conclusive view on the events of the past few days around #Ukraine. Having lots of information does not always make us wiser about what is actually occurring on the ground. As such, with incomplete information it is difficult to draw a conclusive view on the events of the past few days around
22/ The Ukrainian attacks are most likely to be local counterattack activity, that is occurring against the background of higher level final preparations for the Ukrainian offensives to come. And it will be informing those preparations.
23/ Despite the uncertainty about the true meaning of these Ukrainian attacks around Bakhmut, I think one thing is certain.
24/ The attacks at #Bakhmut show the Ukrainians are ready for a larger fight. And if they show the same creativity, determination, leadership and purpose they have throughout this war, the Russians are in a huge amount of trouble. End. The attacks atshow the Ukrainians are ready for a larger fight. And if they show the same creativity, determination, leadership and purpose they have throughout this war, the Russians are in a huge amount of trouble. End.
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