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The Long Road to Order [1]

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Date: 2023-05-13

The geopolitics of Cold War II severely limits the establishment and enforcement of international law.

Writer Michael Lind addressed this in his story “Liberal Internationalism has Failed, but We Can Live in a Multipolar Word.” He drew a picture of a world defined by struggles among great powers and smaller powers, the world we’re living in right now - the second Cold War. In addition, he also wrote on the appeal of liberal internationalism after the great conflicts of the 20th century – World War I (League of Nations), World War II (United Nations), and the Cold War (UN).

Lind correctly defined the liberal internationalist view of international relations as a school where sovereign states pull together to establish certain ground rules, in contrast to world federalism where a single sovereign state keeps peace in the world. Liberal internationalists believe in governess in the international system, not world government. In liberal internationalist theory, international law can be enforced by alliances of nation states that band together against outlaw nation states.

The neoconservative movement advocated a different but similar idea, the peace would be enforced by a hegemonic power, the United States, and not alliances. We all know the results there – the Iraq War. In addition to ideas about how to achieve peace, liberal internationalists advocate for a set of economic ideas. Most often a world economy driven by rules where nations would no longer have to control their industries, markets, and natural resources vital to security.

Liberal internationalists often make predictions about values that define the international system, as stated by Lind. They have predicted the world would move toward the liberal democracy practiced in the US and other Western countries. Both Woodrow Wilson and George W Bush held such views, although the two figures were very different in many respects. The emerging state of international relations looks quite different – a multi-polar world. When it comes to democracy, it's teetering on the edge, even in the West. We’ve witnessed rising authoritarianism, sometimes in formerly solid democratic republics, and theocracies still exist in places like Iran and Saudi Arabia. In other words, the world is not heading in the same direction politically!

In our multi-polar world, nation-states will work to become economically self-sufficient through their alliances and maybe on their own. As Lind suggested, perhaps we’ll have to accept some forms of protectionism (and other forms of industrial policy) that will strengthen the economic power of individual states. After all, the Russia/China block and the American block are in competition in both the military and economic spheres. Each great power has its sphere of influence, and powers will jockey for influence in other nation-states’ spheres.

However, there is just a bit of hope for those who believe in international law. We can use diplomatic expedients like arms control treaties, summit meetings, and hotlines, Lind stated. It looks like this will be our immediate future, and we should use all those mechanisms. However, it never hurts to plan for a better world in the decades ahead. Perhaps the idea of the democratic republic can win out with movements that want its survival inside governments that hold those traditions. However, invading sovereign countries to make them democracies, like the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003, would be out. President Barack Obama’s illegal invasion of Libya in 2011 was another unnecessary exercise. As of late, the world has been trying to manage Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and many fear a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Perhaps a power balancing act amongst all the world’s powers will lead to exhaustion and an interest in forms of international law to prevent the financial cost of power balancing. How about another version of the four policemen that Franklin Roosevelt envisioned in World War II? Maybe in a reformed UN or a successor organization?

Let’s hope we’ll see a form of liberal internationalism that respects the internal affairs of various nation-states but works to prevent power balancing. Yes, there will be democratic and non-democratic nation-states in this international system, but the main goal should be to work on minimizing interstate violence. Then, maybe, in the long run, democratic ways will start to flourish where they didn’t before.

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