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Weekly Canvass Report for Arizona & Nevada. Revving Up the GOTV Machine... [1]

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Date: 2023-05-12

2024 Electoral College Battleground Map

When Hope Springs from Field PAC first started canvassing in Arizona this year, we found a little trepidation about the fact that Kyrsten Sinema had switched to an “Independent” late last year. The more we knocked on doors, though, it seemed that this fact had wafted it’s way through the body politic and changed little. Arizonans, it seemed, were less committed to individuals than to political parties; perhaps in large part because there was a pro-Trump and an anti-Trump party and Trump would (again) be driving how Arizonans voted next year.

2024 Senate Battleground Map

Even Democrats who still liked Sinema were committed to voting for the Democratic nominee (even if they didn’t know who that was (or, rather, likely to be)). And we have yet to find anyone who identifies as an unaffiliated voter who says they will vote for the “Independent” next year. Since we don’t knock on doors of (known) Republican households, it is difficult for us to speak to how Sinema will do among Arizona GOP voters. Instead, we have voters asking us if we think she can get on the ballot (something that prompts a Q(uestion)-slip, which we won’t be passing along to the Sinema campaign!

But we didn’t see (hear) the angst we did over the last two months. I can’t speak to what changed (if anything), merely account for the data. But the impression i get is that the electorate is settling (down) knowing that Sen. Sinema may run again against Republican and Democratic candidates for her seat. And the fact is, we really don’t know if she will get on (or stay on) the November 2024 ballot.

138 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson last Saturday (pink areas east of Phoenix and Tucson, and the grey district (barely discernible south of Phoenix)). They knocked on 10,142 doors and talked to 952 voters. 598 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey.

Inflation was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to Saturday. Which is interesting, since inflation continues to fall despite concerns it might rise this month. Border Issues was the #2 issue concern, something that no doubt was elevated by local coverage of migrant “caravans.” Housing Costs or concerns was the third most frequently raised issue on Saturday.

Arizona Approval Numbers

Biden Approval among the Arizonans we talked to was at 53% last Saturday and 16% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 8% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 36% expressed Disapproval. We ask ask about whether vote Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 46% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman. (We are not asking about disapproval of the Congressman yet.)

Sinema Disapproval in yellow

43% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 7% said they disapproved of the job she was doing. Because some of our volunteers want to compare Sinema disapproval numbers to Rep. Ruben Gallego’s approval numbers, we include it here.

Volunteers registered 11 new voters in Arizona on Saturday, 63 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter skews the number higher). In Arizona, we had 93 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. These are passed along to Democratic office holders, when possible, but to the appropriate office, if not.

Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since last month in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel

Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are, helping voters to understand the importance of super-compliance with these new voting restrictions that Republicans keep enacting. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured (in states that allow it).

111 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the southern suburbs of Las Vegas and the city of Reno last Saturday. They knocked on 7,842 doors and talked to 703 voters. 428 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey. The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in Nevada last weekend were Jobs (and more specifically, Job Loses), Crime was Second and Inflation was Third. Nevadans are still talking about legislative paralysis, not exactly clear why.

Biden’s Approval numbers among the Nevadans we talked to was at 58% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 9%. Senator Rosen had an Approval rating of 59% with 8% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Lombardo was 18% and Disapproval was 30% last Saturday. (Lombardo had previously been the Clark County Sheriff so he was better known in the Vegas area but less identifiable to Reno voters.)

Volunteers registered 4 new voters and re-registered 18 voters. 51 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 3 voters completed an Incident Report. Five other voters expressed concerns about the 2024 elections but did not fill out incident reports because they didn’t admit to witnessing voter suppression or intimidation.

We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods. In Arizona, we had 29 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. As i mentioned above, these are passed along to Democratic office holders, when possible, but to the appropriate office, if not.

But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.

If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel

Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/12/2168943/-Weekly-Canvass-Report-for-Arizona-amp-Nevada-Revving-Up-the-GOTV-Machine

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