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Ukraine Invasion Day 444: Russia Planning ‘Migrant Village’ for Right-Wing US Expats [1]

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Date: 2023-05-12

A Russian immigration lawyer says there are “tens of thousands” of non-Russians eager to live in the community development (newest one outside of Moscow) who “very strongly believe in the prophecy that Russia will remain the only Christian country in the world.” Back in the real world the Russo-Ukraine counteroffensive has yet to begin.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on May 12 that Ukrainian forces are still conducting defensive operations, which sometimes include counterattacks and other unspecified active actions. [14] A senior US military official and a senior Western official stated on May 12 that Ukrainian forces have started conducting “shaping” operations in advance of the counteroffensive. [15] Western reporting on this subject notably contradicts Russian sources, many of which have claimed the counteroffensive is officially underway.

"For all of the West’s technical objections to giving F-16s to Ukraine, the real objection is likely based in fears of escalation," @PhillipsPOBrien and @edwardstrngr write: https://t.co/M5uZsZmj4q

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front. The Russian MoD denied that Ukrainian forces broke through Russian lines in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions on May 11, instead claiming that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups near Kotlyarivka, Kharkiv Oblast (25km northwest of Svatove), and Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna) and Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast. [28] The MoD also posted footage on May 12 of Russian forces using T-90, T-80, and T-72B3 tanks, and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles conducting ground attacks near Spirne (26km south of Kreminna). [29] Geolocation of the Russian MoD’s footage indicates that Russian forces only made marginal advances west of Spirne. [30]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Ukraine's defense forces have pushed the occupiers back in some areas. The European Union is considering new restrictions against Russia. The Ministry of Defense will order Ukrainian tanks for the Armed Forces. We have collected the key news for May 12.https://t.co/oZd6J2t72a — Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) May 12, 2023

x Moscow acknowledged on Friday that its forces had fallen back north of Ukraine's battlefield city of Bakhmut after a new Ukrainian offensive, in a retreat that the head of Russia's Wagner private army called a rout. https://t.co/hGUTdOFOqz — CBC News (@CBCNews) May 12, 2023

Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows Russian forces fleeing Ukrainian artillery fire on the southern bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir, about 4km northwest of Bakhmut. [1] This footage visually confirms claims made by a number of Russian milbloggers that Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Bakhmut in the area between Bohdanivka and Berkhivka. [2] One Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) lost their positions in the area between Hryhorivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka (about 6km northwest of Bakhmut). [3] Several Russian sources warned that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to encircle the Wagner Group within Bakhmut. [4] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Priogozhin emphasized that Ukrainian forces are approaching Berkhivka and claimed that Ukraine now holds positions within 500m of Bakhmut’s northwestern city limits. [5] Russian milbloggers additionally reported that Ukrainian troops are counterattacking towards Khromove (3km west of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut). [6] One Russian milblogger claimed that the situation southwest of Bakhmut near Mayorsk has stabilized following Ukrainian attacks on positions of the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps. [7] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) rejected claims made by other Russian sources regarding Ukrainian advances and claimed instead that elements of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Luhansk People’s Republic) and 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) repelled all attacks in the Berkhivka area ”taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhivske Reservoir.” [8]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut on May 12 against the backdrop of localized Ukrainian counterattacks. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows that Russian forces have advanced between Marshal Tolbukhin and Iryna Levchenko streets in northwestern Bakhmut. [36] Russian sources claimed that Wagner fighters captured 220m of territory in Bakhmut and are attacking three main fortified areas in the northwestern sector of the city. [37] Prigozhin claimed that Ukraine holds 2.18 square kilometers of territory in Bakhmut. [38] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces additionally conducted unsuccessful offensive operations towards Stupochky (11km southwest of Bakhmut just south of the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), and Hryhorivka (9km northwest of Bakhmut). [39] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Force Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on May 12 that over 40 combat clashes have occurred in the Bakhmut direction over the past day and that the situation for Russian forces is overall worsening because Wagner is being supplanted by motorized rifle and paratrooper elements that are comprised of poorly trained and motivated mobilized personnel. [40]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian sources continue to speculate about potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in southern Ukraine. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed on May 11 that he could not confirm reports that Ukrainian forces launched the full-scale counteroffensive in the Zaporizhia direction. [47] Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo claimed on May 11 that the situation along the frontline near the Dnipro River is stable and that some Russian occupation officials were spreading false information that they found sensational. [48] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are concentrating forces in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts, while another claimed that reports that Ukrainian forces are accumulating boats on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River is unconfirmed. [49] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces from an unspecified area of the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River. [50]

www.understandingwar.org/...

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/12/2168867/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-444-Russia-Planning-Migrant-Village-for-Right-Wing-US-Expats

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