(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Kick Off Canvasses in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Hope Springs from Field and Early Organizing! [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']
Date: 2023-05-12
2024 Electoral College Battleground Map
Returning to a state because it (finally!) met our temperature requirements is always exciting! Last week Hope Springs from Field PAC started canvassing (again!) in Pennsylvania and Ohio — both of which not only have competitive Senate races but also qualify as Electoral College swing states, something we are also focusing on for this election cycle.
2024 Senate Battleground Map
As you can see from the consensus 2024 Senate map, Pennsylvania is currently rated as Likely Democrat, but the state always seems to be close (plus, it was already a competitive EC state); Ohio, on the other hand, is a Republican state with a Democratic Senator. In recent years, Senate elections have closely matched Electoral College outcomes, so the connection between senate election outcomes and Electoral College outcomes are strong.
Sherrod Brown has consistently been underestimated when he has run for the U.S. Senate in Ohio in his first 3 senate elections. Republicans vow not to do it this year, based on the results of the 2016, 2020 and 2022 elections.
But Brown is considered a political institution in the state, making him an unusually formidable candidate to beat in an increasingly red state. The incumbent senator is known for connecting with disparate voting blocs across Ohio, including white, working-class voters who have shifted toward Republicans since former President Trump’s first election campaign in 2016.
And we found that to be true as we started knocking on doors last week in the Cincinnati suburbs. Interestingly, this was really the first time i can remember where we had a significantly higher percentage of unaffiliated voters in our turf (usually, it is pretty close to 50/50, although not all walk lists reflect the overall percentage). But we heard several voters parrot Ohio pols who note that, “Sherrod is an incredible retail politician. That guy can work a parade and make you think you’re the only one in it.” Washington insiders might argue that Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown are similar but it was immediately obvious that Brown starts this campaign with much high name recognition that Ryan did in the last cycle — as you would expect from any incumbent (like Brown).
38 volunteers showed up to knock on doors in the Cincinnati suburbs in the 1st Congressional District. We had knocked on doors here last cycle, mostly in the suburbs. Volunteers knocked on 2,653 doors on Saturday and talked to 238 voters. 153 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey. The Top 3 Issues canvassers found were Economic Uncertainty or Recession Fears, the Credit Crunch and what we will label Summer Concerns (Summer Jobs, Summer Kids’ Programs, even the opening of Parks and Pools — which is a new one for me). The most mentioned concern in the state portion of the Issues Survey was about legislative proposals affecting their state Constitution, which could be labelled as concerns about Reproductive Rights. We continue to ask “If there is a single issue that will determine how you vote, what is it?” Abortion popped out as the singular answer this week, which i don’t believe ever happened last Summer (in Ohio).
Biden’s Approval numbers among the Ohioans we talked to was at 56% last Saturday (higher than expected), with a Disapproval number of 17% (which was not a surprise). Senator Brown had an Approval of 61% with 8% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor DeWine was 49%; Disapproval was 15% last Saturday.
Volunteers re-registered 4 voters. 16 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms, and we send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
One voter expressed a concern about the 2024 elections but did not fill out an Incident Report (because they didn’t admit to witnessing voter suppression or intimidation). 8 voters asked questions that will be forwarded to the candidate’s campaign (we walk with Q(uestion)-slips that are filled out if the voter asked the volunteer a question; these are then forwarded to the appropriate campaign, freeing volunteers to answer questions that they may or may not know the answer to). We also walk with Observation Forms that volunteer canvassers can fill out if they notice something they think will be helpful to other canvassers. We always record these observational notes in VAN, so that the Democratic campaigns that follow have access to volunteer observations.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since last month in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are, helping voters to understand the importance of super-compliance with these new voting restrictions that Republicans keep enacting. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured (in states that allow it).
128 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia last Saturday. Like our planned canvass in the (far) eastern suburbs of Cleveland, our canvass kickoff in the Pittsburgh had to be postponed (tomorrow isn’t looking good, either: rain is forecast). They knocked on 9,011 doors and talked to 889 voters. 558 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey.
Economic Uncertainty was the Top Issue for the Pennsylvania voters we talked to Saturday. The second most cited concern was really a question, “Why haven’t gas prices fallen more?” That was also a new response, but seems to suggest that voters are wondering if we are out of the Pandemic Economic Crisis that had been driving us since 2020. Mass Shootings was third, and this was before the incident in Allen, TX.
Biden Approval among the Pennsylvanians we talked to was at 54% last Saturday and 7% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 58% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Casey was doing while 11% expressed Disapproval. 53% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Shapiro was doing a good job, 8% said they Disapproved. Still, we got more enthusiastic feedback on the governor than anyone else last weekend.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods. In Pennsylvania, we had 88 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. As i mentioned above, these are passed along to Democratic office holders, when possible, but decidedly to the appropriate office, if not. Two voters expressed concerns about the 2024 elections and 8 others mentioned concerns but did not fill out an Incident Report (because they didn’t admit to witnessing voter suppression or intimidation).
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Our very first question is whether the person we are talking to is registered to vote at their current home address. We registered 3 new voters in Pennsylvania on Saturday, 37 voters who updated their addresses as required by federal (HAVA) law.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/12/2168721/-PA-OH
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
