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New Hampshire State Senate Districts (2024): SD 1, SD 2, SD 6, SD 24, SD 7 [1]

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Date: 2023-05-11

Today, I am looking at the remaining five competitive New Hampshire senate districts: SD 1, SD 2, SD 6, SD 24, and SD 7.

New Hampshire Senate District 1

NH SD 1 is located in the northern corner of the state, bordering Canada, and encompassing communities such as Littleton. SD 1 swung heavily to the right at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from easily supporting Barack Obama in 2012 by over 15 points to supporting Donald Trump in 2016 by between 4 and 5 points and supporting Joe Biden by a razor-thin margin of less than half a percentage point. The district had a somewhat competitive senate race in 2016, with Democrat Jeff Woodburn winning reelection by about 9 points. However, the GOP flipped the seat in 2018, despite the great environment for Dems overall, with Republican David Starr defeating Woodburn by between 9 and 10 points. It should be noted that a few months prior to the 2018 election Woodburn was arrested for various criminal charges, including domestic violence, so it’s quite likely that the scandal cost Dems the seat. The district became open again in 2020 and Republican Erin Hennessey managed to easily hold the seat, winning by about 14.5 points, even with Biden very narrowly carrying it. The 2022 redistricting made SD 1 a few points redder, as Trump would have now carried the seat in 2020 by 2 points. The 2022 senate race was not as competitive, with Republican Carrie Gendreau winning the open seat by between 9 and 10 points. Gendreau should be heavily favored this cycle, especially considering that she will now have the advantage of incumbency, but the district has the potential to be competitive, given the close presidential results. I’m classifying SD 1 as Likely Republican.

New Hampshire Senate District 2

NH SD 2 is located towards the center of the state and contains communities such as Campton and Meredith. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, SD 2 was fairly competitive, with Obama carrying the district in 2012 by between 6 and 7 points, Trump carrying it by a similar margin in 2016, and Biden very narrowly carrying it by less than half a percentage point. The district featured a very close senate race in 2018, with Republican Bob Giuda winning reelection by about 3 points, after having first won the seat by a larger 8-point margin in 2016. The 2020 senate race was not especially close though, with Giuda winning by a little less than 12 points, against the same Dem challenger he faced in 2018. The 2022 redistricting made SD 2 a few points redder, shifting much of the district further east. In particular, Trump would have now narrowly carried the district by about 2 points in 2020. The 2022 senate race was not particularly competitive, with Republican Timothy Lang Sr. winning the open seat by 12 points. Lang should be heavily favored, given his decent margin of victory last cycle, but the district still warrants notice, given that it has been competitive in the past. I’m classifying SD 2 as Likely Republican.

New Hampshire Senate District 6

NH SD 6 is located on the state’s eastern border with Maine and contains the community of Rochester. SD 6 swung heavily to the right in 2016 under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Trump easily carrying the seat by 17 points, after Romney had narrowly carried it by about 2 points, though the district swung several points back towards the Dems in 2020, with Trump carrying it by a narrower 10-point margin. In 2016, Republican James Gray won the open seat by just over 10 points, underperforming Trump by quite a bit, and was reelected by a similar margin of just under 10 points in 2018. However, the 2020 senate race wasn’t close, with Gray winning by between 15 and 16 points. The 2022 redistricting made SD 6 very slightly bluer, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to less than 9 points. Gray was reelected in 2022 by between 11 and 12 points, similar to his previous margins. The Republicans should be reasonably safe here, given that the district’s fundamentals strongly favor the GOP, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, considering that Gray doesn’t seem to be that strong a candidate, as many of his previous races have not been particularly impressive. I’m classifying SD 6 as Likely Republican.

New Hampshire Senate District 24

NH SD 24 is located on the east coast towards the southeastern end of the state and contains communities such as Stratham and Hampton. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, SD 24 traditionally was highly competitive but had moved towards the Dems, having gone from narrowly supporting Romney by between 2 and 3 points to supporting Clinton by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes to supporting Biden by a larger margin of just under 10 points. The 2016 senate race was fairly close, with Republican Dan Innis defeating Democrat Tom Sherman by a little more than 4 points. Sherman managed to flip the seat in 2018, as he defeated Innis by 6 points in a rematch, and was reelected by a slightly narrower margin of between 4 and 5 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made SD 24 a lot bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to nearly 20 points under the new boundaries. The 2022 senate race was quite a bit closer, though, with Democrat Debra Altschiller winning the open seat by a little more than 11 points (against the same challenger that Sherman faced in 2020). Altschiller should be fairly safe, but the district is still worth keeping an eye on, given that it seems to be a bit friendlier to the GOP down-ballot. I’m classifying SD 24 as Likely Democrat.

New Hampshire Senate District 7

NH SD 7 is based in the center of the state and is home to the community of Franklin. SD 7 swung a good deal to the right under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Trump carrying the seat by 12.5 points in 2016 and by 7 points in 2020, after Obama had carried it by about 4.5 points in 2012. The seat flipped to the GOP in 2016, as Republican Harold French defeated then incumbent Democrat Andrew Hosmer by a razor-thin 17-vote margin. French was reelected by a larger, but still competitive, 7-point margin in 2018 and by a non-competitive 16-point margin in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made SD 7 a few points bluer, shifting the district’s boundaries by quite a bit. In particular, Trump’s 2020 margin shrank to just over 2 points under the new boundaries. The 2022 senate race was somewhat competitive, with Republican Dan Innis (who previously represented SD 24, as discussed above) winning the open seat by about 9 points. (Note that SD 24 and SD 7 aren’t located near each other, so it seems that Innis relocated). The Republicans should be favored to hold the seat, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying SD 7 as Lean Republican.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/11/2168711/-New-Hampshire-State-Senate-Districts-2024-SD-1-SD-2-SD-6-SD-24-SD-7

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