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The Upcoming Ukraine Counteroffensive, here's what I would do... [1]

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Date: 2023-05-09

Like all of you here that feel like we have a vested interest in the success of Ukraine in this awful mess, I’ve been poring over maps for months, looking at how an effective counter attack can do the most good. Reading Kos and Marks thoughts on the subject has helped clarify a few things. Here’s my take.

The goal- Secure Ukraine’s border against any further invasion. I believe that’s what all those recently storm brigades will be used for. Stage one, take the northern route. Roll through the front line at Svatove and take Starobilsk and Bilovodsk. There are only two main highways and two secondary paved roads that cross the Russian border in the whole of that part of northern Luhansk oblast. At that point Ukraine will be deep in the back field and can send a brigade up every road to the Russian border until they make contact with the enemy, retreat 10 or so km’s and set up road blocks and secure the flank.

Stage two- Roll down both H21 and P07 towards the city of Luhansk. Heading south with the Russian border on their right, There’s only one highway that crosses the border all the way to the Donets river, so securing that flank seems completely doable. If our updates here are accurate, this poses the path of least resistance. The entire route avoids the worst of the hilly terrain that defines the Siverskyi Donets river valley. The route south of Starobilsk follows the east bank of the Adair river making for a decent obstacle for any attack by the Russians from the Kremmina/Severodonetsk area. Advance as far as the north bank of the Donets river and stop, using it as an effective defensive barrier. We’ve seen how well the Russians can cross a river.

Now, at this point, several things will be clear to any Russian in Ukraine. There are now only four paved roads and two rail lines to get home. Severodonetsk, Kremmina, Bakmut are now in a very untenable position. Re supply now has to travel all the way down to Volgograd then to Rostov to stay out of range of long range weapon systems, a shaky position at best.

This could be the pressure Ukraine needs to get tens of thousands of Russian troops to start thinking about going home. If not…

Stage three- There are three good highways across the Donets River heading south. So far, major bridging equipment has not been needed. If those bridges are still standing, great. If not, pick the best bridgehead and continue to cut off access to escape routes. We haven’t seen Ukraine attack headlong into one of their own cities and wisely so. What’s the point of leveling a city before you liberate it? Continue this humane course and avoid Luhansk by surrounding it. The problem starts to become that the further west Ukrainian forces are, the hillier the terrain gets. Far from a mountain range in features, it still behooves the armored columns to hug the Russian border and secure each crossing as they go. It’s only 21 miles after crossing the Donets, to cut off the last major road leading from Russia to Luhansk. Each mile puts the remaining Russian forces in a less and less favorable position to withdraw. It’s 21 more mile to cut off the last two roads in the whole Oblast. Now the city of Donetsk is in risk of being cut off. And it’s at least 85 miles for the invading forces in Bakhmut to travel to the Russian border.

Now the whole of eastern Ukraine is now starting to resemble the Falaise pocket, hopefully without too much risk or loss of Ukrainian armor and military personnel. The entire mission was taken place behind pre-2014 territory. I would suspect that there aren’t a lot of fortifications or minefields that far east.

And now comes the tricky part. Up to now this is as far as I have planned out. But what to do next? There are three highways along the Russian- Donestk Oblast border. But that border takes a stair step route 70 miles to the west. That is important diplomatically and politically. In the last war through this countryside, WW2, that didn’t matter. The Russian town of Rostov was always the goal to capturing the flat seaside route along the Tahanrozka Gulf of the Sea of Azov. Does the Ukrainian army do the unthinkable and march the 40 miles to the coast, west of Rostov and invade open land on Russian soil, thereby cutting off the last route out of Ukraine for the invaders? That certainly would send a strong message that Russia had better sue for peace. This is war after all. Would that send the nukes flying or Putin flying out the window of a high rise? Do they march west, closer to the mass of Russian troops based in Donetsk? Of course I have no idea. Just spit balling here.

But this route plan, in my mind, captures the most amount of defensible pre-2014 border without crossing established trench after trench along the southern front. It puts the biggest pinch on the Russian army’s supply routes and surrounds the most troops.

Is it even possible to pull off? Of course it is a big gamble to bite off that much territory. Can they maintain supply routes? Can they protect their flanks so as to not get cut off? Can they advance their air defenses fast enough to keep up with the lead units? Of course, the ZSU are the only ones that can answer that.

But it comforts me to think about a successful conclusion to this nightmare with the least amount of slaughter and loss of life for either side. Can Russia even scrounge up enough vehicles to counter such and attack? After that pathetic parade, I’d say that they would run out of fuel before they could even engage Ukraine in their back field. Given the amount of insanity that is coming from those private armies around Bakhmut, how bad would it get if they were cut off and surrounded?

In the end, I believe that President Zelenskyy has shown a tremendous amount of regard to his citizens and soldiers. I hope he is looking for the best way to win this upcoming counteroffensive without headlong attacks at the Russian strong points.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/9/2167367/-The-Upcoming-Ukraine-Counteroffensive-here-s-what-I-would-do

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