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New Hampshire State Senate Districts (2024): SD 9, SD 11, SD 12, SD 16, SD 18 [1]

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Date: 2023-05-09

Next up in my state legislative series is the New Hampshire State Senate. The current balance in the chamber is 14R – 10D, meaning Democrats need a net gain of at least three seats for control, with a net gain of exactly two seats producing a tied chamber, presumably resulting in a power-sharing agreement. In the case of NH, election results for the old districts are fairly useful here as the district numbers on the new map roughly correspond to the district numbers on the old map, with the boundaries having generally not been drastically altered. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection.

Today, I am looking at five districts: SD 9, SD 11, SD 12, SD 16, and SD 18, all based in the southern part of the state.

New Hampshire Senate District 9

NH SD 9 is located in the southwestern corner of the state, bordering Massachusetts and Vermont, and contains communities such as Richmond and Fitzwilliam. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, SD 9 had swung a good deal to the left at the presidential level, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by a little more than 3 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by a percentage point and Joe Biden by a larger margin of nearly 9 points. Democrat Jeanne Dietsch flipped the district in 2018, winning the open seat by just under 5 points. However, the seat flipped back in 2020, with Republican Denise Ricciardi narrowly defeating Dietsch by about a percentage point, despite Biden’s large margin of victory in the district. The 2022 redistricting made SD 9 several points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 2.5 points under the new boundaries. The 2022 senate race was fairly close, with Ricciardi winning reelection by between 4 and 5 points. The seat should be competitive again this cycle. I’m classifying SD 9 as a Toss Up.

New Hampshire Senate District 11

NH SD 11 encompasses communities such as Wilton and Merrimack. SD 11 was barely affected by the 2022 redistricting, with the pre-2022 and post-2022 boundaries being almost identical. SD 11 has been a competitive district at the presidential level and seems to be trending blue, with Romney carrying the seat by a little more than 3 points, Donald Trump carrying it by between 1 and 2 points in 2016, and Biden carrying it by between 9 and 10 points in 2020. The Democrats flipped the seat in 2018, with Shannon Chandley defeating Republican incumbent Gary Daniels by between 4 and 5 points. (Daniels had been fairly easily reelected by a little more than 12 points in 2016). However, in 2020, Daniels flipped the seat back in a rematch with Chandley, as he narrowly defeated her by a razor-thin margin of less than half of a percentage point (again, despite Biden’s decent performance here). The Dems flipped the seat back again in 2022, with Chandley defeating Daniels by between 2 and 3 points in their third rematch. While Dems should have the edge at the top of the ticket, it seems reasonable to expect a competitive senate race, given that the district has changed parties in the last three consecutive elections. I’m classifying SD 11 as a Toss Up.

New Hampshire Senate District 12

NH SD 12 is located on the state’s southern border with Massachusetts and is home to communities such as Mason and Brookline. As with SD 11, the 2022 redistricting seems to have barely changed the boundaries for SD 12. SD 12 has been competitive at the presidential level, with Romney carrying it by about 4 points, Trump carrying it by between 2 and 3 points in 2016, and Biden carrying it by about 5 points. The senate races have also been close, with all of those (races) in the past decade being decided by margins of 5 points or less and the seat changing parties several times. Specifically, Democrat Peggy Gilmour flipped the seat in 2012, winning by just under 4 points, while Republican Kevin Avard flipped the seat back in 2014, defeating Gilmour by just under 2 points, and was reelected by a similarly narrow margin of just under 3 points in 2016, defeating Gilmour again in a rematch. The seat flipped back to the Dems in 2018, with Melanie Levesque narrowly defeating Avard by less than a percentage point, though Avard retook the seat in 2020, as he defeated Levesque by between 2 and 3 points and was reelected by the same margin in 2022, in his third rematch with Levesque. SD 12 should be competitive this cycle given how close the previous senate races have been and is probably the Democrat’s best pick-up opportunity in the chamber. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up.

New Hampshire Senate District 16

NH SD 16 is located south of Concord and north of Manchester, containing communities such as Hooksett. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, SD 16 had been highly competitive overall, with Romney carrying the seat by about a percentage point and Clinton carrying it by less than a point, though Biden carried it by a larger 8-point margin. Democrat Scott McGilvray flipped the seat in 2016, narrowly winning the open race by about 2 points, though he died shortly thereafter, prompting a special election, which Dem Kevin Cavanaugh won fairly easily, as he defeated former Republican incumbent David Boutin (who had represented the seat through 2016) by just under 11 points. Cavanaugh was reelected in 2018 by a narrower margin of just under 5 points (in a rematch with Boutin) and by an even narrower margin of just under 4 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made SD 16 several points redder, as Trump would have now carried the seat by about 3 points under the new boundaries. As a result, Republican Keith Murphy was able to flip the district in 2022, winning the open seat by nearly 7 points. Murphy should be favored, especially considering that he will now have the advantage of incumbency, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying SD 16 as Lean Republican.

New Hampshire Senate District 18

NH SD 18 is based in Hillsborough County, home to Manchester and containing southern parts of the city. As the case with several other districts, SD 18 was almost entirely unchanged by the 2022 redistricting. SD 18 swung a few points to the right at the presidential level in 2016, with Trump narrowly carrying the district by less 3 points, after Obama had carried it by just under 4 points four years earlier. The Dems did rebound here in 2020, however, with Biden carrying the seat by 5 points, slightly outperforming Obama. Prior to 2022, the district’s senate races weren’t all that competitive, with Democrat incumbent Donna Soucy winning by about 10 to 12 points in 2016, 2018, and 2020. However, the seat was quite a bit closer in 2022, with Soucy winning by less than 5 points (against the same Republican opponent she faced in 2018 and 2020), likely a result of increased polarization. While some might Soucy give the edge this cycle, I’m going to cautiously classify SD 18 as a Toss Up.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/9/2168318/-New-Hampshire-State-Senate-Districts-2024-SD-9-SD-11-SD-12-SD-16-SD-18

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