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Ukraine Invasion Day 440: multiple blasts in Russian-occupied Crimea [1]

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Date: 2023-05-08

Russia is preparing to stage its annual Victory Day parade on the Red Square in Moscow amid security concerns after a series of drone attacks on Russian territory.

Senior Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces may be preparing to conduct counteroffensive operations in May or June. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on May 7 that Ukrainian forces are preparing for “new events” in May or June 2023.[5] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov stated in a May 8 interview that the timing and location of a Ukrainian counteroffensive is not significant because Russian forces and leadership will panic regardless, but that he would not be surprised if “something,” possibly alluding to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, occurred in May or June.[6] The Ukrainian Defense Forces Military Media Center stated that Russian forces continue to transfer military equipment, ammunition, and supplies to Ukraine to prepare for a defensive operation against a Ukrainian counteroffensive push.[7]

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group, says he received “a promise” of more ammunition from the Russian army after threatening to pull his front-line troops out of Bakhmut, Ukraine.

"Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 30 missile strikes, 61 airstrikes and fired 89 salvo rockets at the positions of our troops and populated areas. Private residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed and damaged, and there were victims." pic.twitter.com/zwjbIiNfIo

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 8 Today's reported losses below average DEVELOPMENT: $934M in the last 30 days ⬇ $25M reported today ⬇ Tanks & artillery make up the bulk of today's reported losses in dollar terms 📈 https://t.co/Q9tdH3cueY pic.twitter.com/sFXm8Smf05

On basis that one of main reasons for war was Crimean water, Ukraine needs only to target head of North Crimean canal at Nova Kakhovka and dam the canal again. Very difficult operation but relatively small area of attack. pic.twitter.com/W1FeqJknVh

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on May 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna) and Spirne (26km south of Kreminna).[19] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Nevske (19km northwest of Kreminna), and Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna).[20] Geolocated footage published on May 7 shows an unspecified element of the Russian 98thGuards Airborne (VDV) Division conducting a drone strike against Ukrainian positions south of Torske (16km west of Kreminna).[21] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups near Synkivka, Novomlynsk (19km northeast of Kupyansk), and Kyslivka (22km southeast of Kupyansk).[22]

understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces have made marginal advances within Bakhmut as of May 8 amid reports of intensified Wagner Group forces offensive operations. Geolocated footage published on May 7 indicates that Russian forces likely made gains in western Bakhmut.[23] Russian sources claimed on May 7 and 8 that Wagner fighters intensified assaults on Ukrainian positions in western Bakhmut and shelling of the area.[24] Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 7 that Wagner advanced 280m in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces currently control 2.37 square km of the city.[25] A Russian milblogger refuted Russian claims that some Chechen Akhmat units have deployed to Bakhmut as of May 7. ISW has not seen any visual confirmation of Akhmat units operating in the area.[26] Russian milbloggers claimed on May 7 that Russian forces also increased assaults on Ukrainian positions near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), Chasiv Yar (13km west of Bakhmut), and Orikhovo-Vasylivka (14km northwest of Bakhmut) and conducted assaults near Bohdanivka, Predtechyne (14km southwest of Bakhmut), and Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) on May 8.[27] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported on May 8 that Russian forces conducted 29 assaults in the Bakhmut direction, and that increased artillery activity indicates that Russian forces in the area do not suffer from significant ammunition shortages despite Prigozhin’s recent claims.[28] Cherevaty stated that Russian forces continue to conduct attritional ground attacks as their main tactic in the Bakhmut area.[29] Ukrainian Commander of the 127th Territorial Defense Brigade Roman Hryshchenko reported on May 7 that additional Wagner personnel arrived and are operating in the city, leading to an increased intensity of assaults.[30] Hryshchenko stated that Ukrainians have not observed any indications that Wagner intends to leave the city and that intensified shelling likely indicates that Wagner has received more ammunition.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 8 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut), Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, ad Stupochky (14km southwest of Bakhmut).[32]

understandingwar.org/...

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in the Zaporizhia direction. Geolocated footage published on May 7 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions near Shcherbaky in Zaporizhia Oblast.[37] Russian milbloggers published footage on May 7 and 8 that purportedly showing elements of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) striking Ukrainian forces near Charivne and elements of the 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58thCombined Arms Army, Southern Military District) striking Ukrainian forces near Orikhiv.[38]

Russian forces continue defensive operations in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that Russian forces are “massively mining” the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[39] Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo published footage on May 8 purportedly showing him visiting fortifications in occupied Kherson Oblast.[40] Saldo claimed that the fortifications are well-equipped and that the Russian forces stationed there will receive an additional supply of anti-drone guns.

understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/8/2168091/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-440-multiple-blasts-in-nbsp-Russian-occupied-Crimea-nbsp

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