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As the Default Clock Ticks - Cave, Discharge Petition, a Senate Bill or Dark Brandon to the Rescue [1]

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Date: 2023-05-06

To be fair, the ram should be labeled MAGA House Republicans, not Congress

In my first post (HERE), I listed Default, Cave, Discharge Petition and Dark Brandon to the Rescue as options as we approach Default Day, which is now set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as on or around June 1. In this update I have dropped Default, which is the “Do Nothing” option, because it is more of a consequence than an option, and frankly the only ones who see it as an option is the Crazy House Freedom Caucus. So I certainly don’t want to be lumped into that crowd.

So let me update where I think we stand with the other 3 options:

1. Republicans or Democrats Cave —

For the Republicans, a “cave” would be passing a clean debt ceiling raise bill put on the floor by Speaker McCarthy. This would trigger and immediate Motion To Vacate in which McCarthy could be ousted from the Speakership by his “friends” in the Crazy Caucus. To McCarthy, this is somehow worse than a Default. There is only one way McCarthy would put such a bill on the floor, and that being some behind the scenes assurance from House Dem. Leadership that they would furnish the votes he needs to retain the Speaker’s Chair. A highly unlikely long shot, but there is some talk amongst the Congressional rumor mill. So let’s call such a Republican Cave as HIGHLY UNLIKELY, at best.

For Biden and the Democrats, there is still no sign that they would “cave” to the demands of House Republicans. For that matter there is no sign that they will negotiate any budget matters in terms of a debt ceiling raise. Right now the stark choice put to Biden and the Dems. by McCarthy and the rest of the House GOP is either accept a slow painful economic death by a thousand spending cuts or a quick economic death by a shot to the head (I.e., default). Not a real choice since both end in economic death for the US and political disaster for the Democrats in 2024, since the Party in charge usually gets blamed. As of this writing the White House and Dems. are sticking fast to their position of “pass a clean debt ceiling raise bill first, then we will talk about the Federal Budget”. I frankly don’t see them changing this position, because even if they threw McCarthy a bone and agreed to some modest spending cuts, it won’t be enough for the House Crazy Caucus and consequently, it won’t be enough for McCarthy to avoid a vote on ousting him. So let’s also call such a Democrat Cave as HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

2. Discharge Petition —

To start off, I was wrong when I said in My earlier diary that it was too late to use the Discharge Petition option to get a clean debt ceiling bill passed and avoid default due to the “ripening” timeframes in the House Rules. But I guess I was in good company because Joan McCarter said much the same thing in her previous posts.

Turns out that unbeknownst to both of us, and just about everyone else, as fully detailed by this excellent Joan McCarter Post. As we now have learned, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries had a clean debt ceiling bill introduced in 20 separate Committees by a little known Congressman back in January. So it now has “ripened” in those committees over the 30 legislative days required under House Rules and is ready for a Discharge Petition.

Let me just say what a sly move this was by Jeffries and probably others in the Dem. House leadership team. It was a move worthy of comparison to past accomplishments by Speaker Pelosi, who may have had a behind the scenes role. It shows that while we were all screaming for the Dems. to use a Discharge Petition back in January, that’s just what they were doing. So huge Kudos to Jeffries and the other Dem. leaders for being on the ball!

Will it work? Time will tell. But as the deadline draws near, it seems more than possible that at least 5 Republican Congress Critters from purple Districts who need support from Big Corporate donors could sign on.

Anyway, it’s a good Plan. It is also a plan that I would bet McCarthy secretly would like to see succeed. If Dems. and a handful of House Republicans go over his head using a Discharge Petition to pass a clean bill, he can effectively claim he had nothing to do with it and avoid the wrath of the Crazy Caucus and a vote to oust him.

But assuming such a Bill would pass in the House, we still have a Senate Republican filibuster to face. Whether we would have 9 or 10 Senate Republicans (depending on if Feinstein returns or not) to limit debate to allow a final vote for passage is an open question. A lot will depend on where McConnell comes down on this. So far, Per this McCarter Post:

Meanwhile, the architect of the debt ceiling hostage situation, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, has decided that he’ll keep Senate Republicans out of the picture. “It should be clear to the administration that the Senate isn’t a relevant player at this time,” McConnell said Tuesday. “The sooner the president and the speaker get about it, the better.”

But in 2011 when we faced the same situation under Obama, McConnell struck a different tune:

“I think some of our members may have thought the default issue was a hostage you might take a chance at shooting,” McConnell said after nearly defaulting the nation while facing off against then-President Barack Obama. “Most of us didn’t think that. What we did learn is this—it’s a hostage that’s worth ransoming. And it focuses the Congress on something that must be done.”

But faced with a Bill passed by the House, growing concern by the Republican friends on Wall Street and on the verge of default, I have to believe Senate Republicans will enough cloture votes to end debate and pass such a Bill.

3. A Senate Bill —

As I explained in this previous post, now that the House has sent a Bill to the Senate, Schumer could try to pass a clean debt ceiling raise by means of a Substitute Amendment. Although this option still exists, I don’t think it’s on the front burner. Such a bill would have to get passed a Senate Republican filibuster and subsequently have to go through McCarthy to be passed by the House. Right now, I have to believe Schumer would prefer going the route of a Discharge Petition so he gets a clean debt ceiling bill that is already passed by the House. So for now, this seems to be on the back burner.

4. Dark Brandon to the Rescue -

As fully explained in my original post, this entails Biden issuing an Executive Order to direct the Treasury to continue to pay our bills through continued bonding, using the Constitutional authority under the 14th Amendment. A lot has already been written about this, but here’s what’s new from this recent Joan McCarter Post:

While the House Democrats are pursuing that, the Times also reports, the White House has been exploring what’s been dubbed by Cornell Law School Professor Michael C. Dorf as the “least unconstitutional option.” That involves Biden taking Section Four of the 14th Amendment literally: a constitutional challenge to the debt limit. This means Biden could declare that Congress is failing in its constitutional duty to pay the debts it incurs, so as president, he is constitutionally bound to uphold the clear directive of the 14th Amendment: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” “Top economic and legal officials at the White House, the Treasury Department and the Justice Department have made that theory a subject of intense and unresolved debate in recent months,” the Times reports, citing ”several people familiar with the discussions.” As of now, the official position of the White House is that this is something Congress is obligated to do, with no strings attached. It’s an encouraging sign that the option is being seriously considered, because it’s a perfectly valid one and it provides yet another pressure point to force Republicans into doing their job. “If you don’t do it,” Biden could say, “I’ll do it without you.”

One has to believe that Biden will use this authority if it comes down to this being the only choice left to avoid default. Let’s hope he gives a good speech to explain to the American people the consequences involved if he did not issue such an Order.

Anyway, we will see what if anything comes out of Biden’s meeting with Congressional Leaders this week. What I will be watching for is whether Biden and the Democrats stay 109% true to their current “no negotiating with regard to the debt ceiling” position or if they give the slightest hint that they are willing to negotiate some budget items now in conjunction with a debt ceiling bill.

IMO, doing the latter will send the wrong message to the House traditional pro-big business Republicans from swingy purple Districts who are weighing whether to sign on to a Discharge Petition for a clean debt ceiling raise bill. If they think there is even the slimmest chance that a Biden/McCarthy deal is possible based on remarks coming out of the meeting they will feel they can wait on deciding whether to sign a Discharge Petition. Even though we all know a deal on budget cuts that satisfies both Biden and the House Crazy Caucus is IMPOSSIBLE. This would leave Biden with only the Dark Brandon option, a situation that I would guess Biden would want to avoid (far easier politically to sign a clean debt ceiling bill out of Congress than to be forced into signing an Executive Order that will likely have to be defended in Court).

However, if Biden and the Dems. stick to their guns and clearly state after the meeting that they are still not going to negotiate budget matters in conjunction with a debt ceiling bill, it might make just a few purple District, pro- business House Republicans more inclined to sign a Discharge Petition as the Default Click ticks down. At least that seems logical to me.

Let me end this very serious subject with a bit of humor.

I think the clip below from the movie “The Fifth Element”. provides a good analogy to McCarthy’s proposal to “negotiate” and Biden’s current and hopefully post-meeting response. No, I am certainly not endorsing the use of guns and violence as used in this scene. I just think it humorously captures the sentiment of what should be Biden’s response to McCarthy’s request to “negotiate”. As you watch the clip, picture the Megalor Leader as Speaker McCarthy, the Priest being held hostage as the US economy, and the Bruce Willis character as President Biden, and you will understand the analogy.



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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/6/2167669/-As-the-Default-Clock-Ticks-Cave-Discharge-Petition-a-Senate-Bill-or-Dark-Brandon-to-the-Rescue

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