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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Waiting for Godot’s recession [1]
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Date: 2023-05-06
x Soft landing, jobs rate great, 89% of the country talking about how the economy sucks but not for them haha
https://t.co/HFmBwc6mIN — drew (@ImNotOwned) May 5, 2023
Paul Krugman/The New York Times:
Doing Whatever It Takes on Debt What’s odd about this potential crisis is that it has nothing to do with excessive debt. Maybe you think the federal government has borrowed too much over time. We can argue about such things. But they’re beside the point right now. America in 2023 isn’t like, say, Greece in 2009 or Argentina in 2001, cut off by investors because they have lost faith in our solvency. Our looming crisis will, instead, be entirely self-inflicted — or, more accurately, Republican-inflicted. If it happens it will be because the party controlling the House refuses to raise the debt ceiling, a quirk of the U.S. budget process that lets Congress prevent the government from making payments that have already been approved through past legislation.
x Another way to put this: Strong labor markets are a force for equality. The gap between the Black and white unemployment rates tends to narrow when the economy is strong -- and right now, it's the smallest on record. pic.twitter.com/UR4bamLkz3 — Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) May 5, 2023
Aaron Ruper and Thor Bentson/Public Notice:
Why a debt default would be monumentally stupid "I say this as a registered Republican: Why are they giving all of these gifts to Putin and Xi?" financial crisis scholar Kathleen Day tells us. You’d think all parties involved have good reason to hammer out a deal before the government can no longer meet its obligations. But McCarthy has repeatedly vowed he won’t pass a debt ceiling increase unless Democrats make concessions, and going back on that could cost him the support of the right flank of his caucus. Meanwhile, the impasse has fueled speculation that perhaps Biden will come up with creative ways to keep paying the country’s debts even if Congress can’t reach a deal. We’ll find out soon enough. But for this edition of the newsletter, Thor connected with Kathleen Day, a journalist and financial history professor at John Hopkins University, to get her perspective about how a default would hurt the US economy and individual Americans and to discuss which global powers stand to gain from Congress’s potential self-immolation. A transcript of their conversation, lightly edited for clarity and lengths, follows.
Benjamin Dreyer on ChatGPT:
x Ah, so it’s an op-ed columnist.
https://t.co/fV4BfjyzxR — Benjamin Dreyer (@BCDreyer) May 4, 2023
The Washington Post:
Americans split on who they’d blame if U.S. defaults, Post-ABC poll finds As the debate over raising the debt ceiling continues, 39 percent say they would blame congressional Republicans, while 36 percent say they would blame President Biden The poll finds 39 percent of Americans say they would blame Republicans in Congress if the government goes into default, while 36 percent say they would blame President Biden and 16 percent volunteer that they would blame both equally. (That dynamic is similar to the 2011 debt limit showdown, when 42 percent said they would blame congressional Republicans and 36 percent said they would blame President Obama. Lawmakers averted a default that year.)
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