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Alberta is burning. New weather forecast predicts drought will get worse. [1]
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Date: 2023-05-05
Every time there is a forest fire wild bees lose their home. The drought in Alberta has caused even dandelions to be late in blooming. With the destruction of wild prairie the dandelion has become the main food source for bees in early spring.
This morning as I began writing this diary there were 78 wildfires burning in Alberta. Overnight there had been another major emergency evacuation, this time it was Drayton Valley in the foothills of Alberta west of Edmonton. More than 7,000 people were forced to leave as an out of control wildfire changed direction slightly and raced at the town. There are no reports of injuries as of 30 minutes ago. There is no word on the fate of the town.
At this writing there are 88 wildfires burning (and I have heard credible reporting at least 4 new wildfires in the last hour — the official number is now 91 as of 2 minutes ago). It is important to remember fires that occur in areas of Alberta not covered by Alberta Forest Service are referred to as mutual aid fires. This morning there were eight such fires the latest municipal data shows 14. More than 13,000 people have been evacuated and more are being warned to be ready to evacuate with an hour’s notice.
Meanwhile, overnight the Little Red River First Nation was able to evacuate their entire community safely, more than 3,700 people have been evacuated safely. When I went to bed 17 people were missing and presumed dead and the fire had reached the town of Fox Lake. Twenty buildings had been destroyed including the Police Station, Community Hall, and the Northern Store. Chief Conroy Sewepagaham of the Little Red River First Nation had put out a call for volunteers with boats to help remaining community members evacuate.
Fox Lake is very isolated. It is approximately 150 kilometers east of High Level, Alberta and is on the Southeast side of the Peace River from most of the communities in this part of Alberta. The only way across the Peace River at this time of year is by barge. You can also fly in or out by helicopter. The fire destroyed the barge landing and set the barge on fire, though quick thinking volunteers saved the barge and its crew. This meant the rest of the evacuation depended on volunteers with private boats.
Provincial and First Nations forest fire fighters held the fire overnight and saved the rest of town from destruction. This morning fire bombers laid retardant along the leading edge of the fire. The fire now has a name, the Paskwa Fire. As I write this a large team of Alberta firefighters are arriving to fight the blaze. It is not possible to get a good estimate of how big this fire has grown because of smoke, flames and the fact the weather is getting hotter and the wind stronger as the day progresses.
The evacuation of Drayton Valley was made much trickier by road closures cause by smoke or fires jumping highways. Highway 16, known as the Yellowhead Highway, is closed from Spruce Grove, the last major commuter community west of Edmonton to Edson. The communities along that stretch of the Yellowhead have all been evacuated. The focus of firefighting in Alberta is saving the now empty towns Fox Lake, Drayton Valley, Evansburgh, Entwhistle, and Wildwood.
Firefighters from Ontario and Quebec to help. Alberta has now had 363 wildfires this year. La Niña shows up on the Canadian Prairies as colder and drier winters and drier summers so after three years of that Alberta is very dry. Possibly as a result of a growing El Niño Alberta has been hotter than normal and now a heat dome has formed. Temperatures in Northern and Central Alberta have been 10 to 15 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. In Fahrenheit normal temperatures where I live in East Central Alberta the average high for this time of year is 64, over the last week we have averaged 80. In the Fox Lake area average highs are 56 and they have averaged over 82.
Much of Alberta has not greened up yet meaning it is a giant tinderbox waiting to ignite. Once it greens up if the drought continues there will just be more biomass to burn. The forecast shows some localized rain in Drayton Valley over the next three days, about ¾ of an inch but accompanied by thunderstorms with lightning all over the region and very strong winds. Fox Lake on the other hand will cool slightly but remain well above normal for this time of year, the wind will remain strong, and humidity will drop.
The weather forecast on my ranch is pretty much the same as Fox Lake but we had a decent snowpack and a very slow melt as the La Niña fizzled out and temperatures were below normal. The result is we have enough moisture in the ground for crops to germinate and grow, but if this continued into July we would start having crops stressed and dying. We live in fear of a major grass fire. We are no longer driving anywhere on the range, pastures or crop land. We are riding horses, mountain biking, or walking. The heat from an exhaust or just the friction of moving parts can ignite a fire.
Finally, let me answer the obvious question. Yes, a large majority of Albertans believe global warming is real and dangerous. The battle here is to convince people it is caused by humans.
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