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Musk's Predicted Second Starship Super Heavy Test Launch in 6-8 Weeks Too Optimistic? [1]

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Date: 2023-05-02

SpaceX Starship prototype still on pad 5 seconds into launch. The rocket exhaust damaged the launch pad creating a large dust cloud, and catapulting huge chunks of broken concrete into the air, with many landing outside the launch complex.

Elon Musk participated in a Twitter Spaces live chat on Saturday night, and gave an update on the 4/20 Starship Super Heavy Test Launch that resulted in the destruction of rocket stages zero, one, and two prior to reaching a planned orbit (stage zero is a colloquial term for the launch pad infrastructure). Musk said that the launch may have slightly exceeded his expectations, and he expected SpaceX would be ready for a second test launch in six to eight weeks. Sceptical industry observers consider that timeline too optimistic.

This is a brief summary with some critical commentary:

Here is another technical summary:

And this is the original source:

Musk minimized the extent of the pad damage after the launch, and said repairs and upgrades should be nearing completion when he gives another update in a few weeks. He said the launch support structure did not need to be replaced. But he previously acknowledged a lateral reinforced concrete support beam was destroyed when the concrete was stripped from the rebar by the rocket exhaust.

x All that’s left of the concrete lateral support beam is the rebar! Hopefully, this didn’t gronk the launch mount. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 21, 2023

Musk did not provide more detail on the specific repair and launch milestones. He did concede that the failure of the flight termination system to quickly destroy the rocket was significant, and he expected the critical long lead item holding up the next launch would be FAA recertification of the FTS. He also downplayed the environmental damage from the launch and did not acknowledge that environmental concerns could lead to a significant delay.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/2/2167217/-Musk-s-Predicted-Second-Starship-Super-Heavy-Test-Launch-in-6-8-Weeks-Too-Optimistic

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