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A conservative megadonor is sitting out '24. The GOP is probably relieved [1]
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Date: 2023-04-26
Thiel responded to this setback by pouring even more money into his efforts to boost two of his proteges, Ohio’s J.D. Vance and Arizona’s Blake Masters, in their respective Senate primaries in 2022. The $15 million that Thiel devoted to his pro-Vance super PAC, as Politico later reported, allowed the group to essentially carry out all the operations that normally would have been the campaign’s own responsibility. This included, but was not limited to, a secret website where Vance’s own “bare-bones” operation could find opposition research, polls, and ideas for how to secure Trump’s endorsement.
These machinations worked, as the "Hillbilly Elegy" author won Trump’s backing just ahead of his own victory in the GOP primary. But Vance proved to be an exceptionally weak candidate without Thiel to prop him up in the general election, with one conservative radio host griping, “I think he’s running the worst campaign that you could possibly run.” SLF ended up diverting $32 million to rescue Vance against Democrat Tim Ryan in a race where it likely expected to spend $0, while Thiel kept his wallet firmly closed. Vance ended up winning in November, though few Republicans were happy about how much money they’d needed to divert from more winnable races.
But what happened in Arizona proved to be a much worse debacle for the GOP. There, prior to the primary, Thiel directed another $15 million to back Masters, who continued to serve as an executive at Thiel Capital well into his campaign to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly. Masters, who also had Trump’s backing, decisively won the nomination, but Senate Republicans soon despaired over getting stuck with a nominee who had called Ted Kaczynski a "subversive thinker that's underrated" before belatedly acknowledging that it's "probably not great to be talking about the Unabomber while campaigning.”
While Republicans had expected Arizona to be one of their top pickup targets, major GOP outside groups began canceling millions in planned ad spending a few weeks after the primary thanks to Masters' ineptitude. Politico went on to report that internal GOP polls showed Masters with a worse favorable rating than Roy Moore experienced after he was unmasked as a sexual predator who'd pursued minor girls during his 2017 run for Senate in Alabama.
SLF was one of the outfits that pulled out of the state, and while there were reports that it could return if Thiel agreed to help finance renewed efforts, that never happened. Thiel, who has an estimated net worth of $4.2 billion, wound up throwing down only $5 million in the general election―just a third of the amount he’d devoted to help Masters win the primary.
Kelly won reelection 51-45, though that drubbing hasn’t stopped Masters from mulling a 2024 bid for Arizona’s other Senate seat. Of course, it’s possible that Reuters’ sources mean to say that Thiel only intends to forgo direct contributions to candidates, rather than cut off his multi-million dollar super PAC support. If so, that would be very small potatoes, given the $3,300 limit on individual campaign donations. But Democrats, who would be delighted if the GOP picked Masters again, certainly wouldn’t mind if that turns out to be the case.
Editor’s note: The final paragraph of this piece has been updated to reflect the possibility of a more limited curtailment on Thiel’s part.
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