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Minnesota State House Districts (2024): HD 36A, HD 36B, HD 32B, HD 20A [1]

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Date: 2023-04-25

Today, I am going to be looking at the final four competitive MN house districts: HD 36A, HD 36B, HD 32B, and HD 20A. The former three districts are all based in the northern part of the Twin Cities metro area, while HD 20A is in the southeastern part of the state.

Minnesota House District 36A

MN HD 36A is home to the community of Lino Lakes and North Oaks. HD 36A largely overlaps with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 38A. HD 38A had traditionally been a Republican leaning district, having supported Mitt Romney by just under 10 points and Donald Trump in 2016 by just under 11 points, but moved further to the left in 2020, with Trump just narrowly carrying it by under 3 points. The 2020 state house race for HD 38A was fairly competitive, with Republican Donald Raleigh winning the open seat by a little more than 7 points, an improvement for Dems over 2018, which saw Republican Linda Runbeck win reelection by just over 10 points. HD 36A is a few points bluer than HD 38A, with the former district expanding further south into Dem-leaning areas while removing Republican-leaning areas to the east. Specifically, Joe Biden would have carried HD 36A by about 2.5 points in 2020. The 2022 state house race for HD 36A was also highly competitive, with Republican Elliot Engen winning the open seat by just under 3 points. At the statewide level, Dems Tim Walz (Governor’s race) and Steve Simon (Secretary of State race) both managed to carry the district in 2022, with the former winning the seat by about 3 point and the latter winning the seat by about 4 points. Given the close 2022 state house result, the seat should be competitive again this cycle and a decent pick-up opportunity for Dems. I’m classifying HD 36A as a Toss Up.

Minnesota House District 36B

MN HD 36B encompasses the communities of Vadnais Heights and White Bear Lake. HD 36B has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 42B and HD 38B. HD 42B had been a safe district for Democrats, with Dems winning all the recent state house elections by double digits and Biden easily carrying the seat by about 29 points. HD 38B, however was a more competitive district, having supported Romney by between 5 and 6 points, Trump in 2016 by about a percentage point, and Biden by just under 8 points. Democrat Ami Wazlawik flipped that district in 2018, narrowly winning the open seat by just under 2 points and was reelected by a razor thin margin of 100 votes in 2020. Not surprisingly, HD 36B is in between the two former districts (HD 42B and HD 38B) partisan-wise, having supported Biden by about 17 points, a conformable margin, if not as strong a margin as HD 42B. However, the 2022 state house race for HD 36B was considerably more competitive, with Democrat Brion Curran winning the open seat by about 7 points, underperforming Biden by about 10 points. Curran also considerably underperformed Walz and Simon, who ran about even or a few points ahead of Biden in their 2022 performances in the district. In fact, Curran seems to have been the worst performing Dem on the ballot in 2022, with even Dems Julie Blaha (State Auditor race) and Keith Ellison (Attorney General race), both of whom barely won statewide, running about a percentage point ahead of her in the district. While the district should be fundamentally safe for Dems, it does seem reasonable to expect a competitive race given Curran’s somewhat underwhelming performance, though she will have the advantage of incumbency this time. I’m classifying HD 36B as Lean Democrat.

Minnesota House District 32B

MN HD 32B contains the communities of Blaine and Lexington. HD 32B overlaps with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 37B (which was discussed in a previous article), and to a lesser extent the pre-2022 iteration of HD 38A (which is discussed in the HD 36A paragraph above). HD 32B was fairly close at the presidential level in 2020, with Biden carrying the seat by about 5 points. In 2022, Democrat Matt Norris was able to flip the seat, as he defeated incumbent Republican Donald Raleigh (who had been representing HD 38) by just over 2 points. Both Walz and Simon carried the seat by about 6 to 7 points, outrunning Raleigh, as well as Biden, though all the other 2022 Democrats lost the seat, albeit by fairly narrow margins. HD 32B should be highly contested again this cycle, given the close nature of the seat. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up.

Minnesota House District 20A

MN HD 20A is located on the state’s eastern border with Wisconsin and is home to the community of Red Wing. HD 20A is similar to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 21A, which had trended a good deal to the right at the presidential level in recent years, having gone from supporting Obama by about 4 points in 2012 to supporting Trump by between 11 and 12 points in 2016 and by a narrower margin of just under 8 points in 2020. HD 21A had remained in Republican hands, with Republican Barb Haley winning the open seat by about 10 points in 2016 and being reelected by a larger 14-point margin in 2018 and by an even larger margin of over 19 points in 2020. HD 20A is a few points redder than HD 21A, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to a little more than 10 points in the former district. (HD 20A extends further south into heavily rural Republican-leaning areas.) In 2022, HD 20A was not especially competitive at the state house level, with Republican Pam Altendorf winning the open seat by about 14 points, though it may be interesting to point out that there was a third-party independent candidate on the ballot who received 10.5% of the vote and Altendorf won with less than 52% of the vote. However, the district was fairly close in some of the statewide races, with Walz losing the district by less than 7 points and Simon losing the district by less than 4 points. Altendorf should be fairly safe, but the district is still worth keeping an eye on. I’m classifying HD 20A as Likely Republican.

Thanks to Minnesota Secretary of State website (for the 2022 statewide results of the new districts), cnanalysis.com (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/25/2165772/-Minnesota-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-36A-HD-36B-HD-32B-HD-20A

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