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Ukraine Invasion Day 419: The likelihood of a quick end to hostilities is remote [1]
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Date: 2023-04-17
Almost 500 children have been killed in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, according to a report by the Ukrainian prosecutor general . As of Monday, 470 children had been killed and 948 injured, it said, adding that the department believes that the number of injured children is higher.
Slovakia will temporarily halt imports of grains and other selected products from Ukraine to protect its farmers , joining Poland and Hungary in the move, a government spokesperson said on Monday. Ukraine and Poland meanwhile began talks aimed at reaching an agreement on imports.
The Kremlin has said prospects for a renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative, in which Russia allows Ukraine to ship agricultural exports from its Black Sea ports via Turkey, were “not so bright” . Russia has repeatedly complained that western economic sanctions are preventing it from exporting agricultural products, and that these need to be lifted in order for it to agree to any extension.
Russia said it had repelled an “illegal” Ukrainian attempt to infiltrate Russian territory in the southern border region of Bryansk , 11 days after reporting a similar incident. “The intruder stepped on a mined protection line,” said regional governor Alexander Bogomaz on Telegram.
The Pentagon said it expected findings within 45 days from a review into how the US military handles classified information after last week’s arrest of an airman over the leak a trove of highly classified documents online.
Two Russian fighter jets and a spy plane flying close to Nato airspace have been intercepted by the UK and German air forces . Eurofighter typhoons from the RAF and the German air force’s 71 Richtofen Wing were scrambled to intercept the jets as they flew over the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland.
The United States and more than 40 other countries said in a joint statement that they were deeply concerned over Russia’s detainment of a Wall Street Journal reporter and protested Moscow’s “efforts to limit and intimidate the media.” The statement read further: “We urge Russian Federation authorities to release those they hold on political grounds, and to end the draconian crackdown on freedom of expression, including against members of the media.”
US ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy said she had made her first visit to jailed Wall Street reporter Evan Gershkovich , who was arrested in Russia two weeks ago on charges of spying. “He feels well and is holding up. We reiterate our call for Evan’s immediate release,” Tracy said.
The UN’s human rights head, Volker Türk, urged Russia to release him, while Baltic neighbour Latvia sanctioned 10 Russian officials and lawyers involved in the case.
Kara-Murza’s wife, Evgenia Kara-Murza, told British broadcaster LBC that she was “baffled” by the UK government’s “weak” response . “Introducing sanctions against his perpetrators would actually be a very practical step that I would very much like to see,” she said.
The UK has condemned the sentencing of Russian opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza , who was jailed for 25 years for opposing the war in Ukraine. UK foreign secretary James Cleverly summoned the Russian ambassador, Andrei Kelin, for an explanation. Kara-Murza holds dual Russian-British citizenship.
While each conflict is unique and tends to defy history, a clear-cut defeat of either side in this war is unlikely, said experts. A more likely scenario is protracted fighting leaving both sides exhausted but unwilling to admit defeat, resulting in a frozen conflict or an eventual uneasy truce. The likelihood of a quick end to hostilities is remote.
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 17 First update from Oryx in a while Net change to totals: 21:8 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 VISUALLY CONFIRMED: 3.2x losses to date ➡ 2.9x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡ 6.3x 30-day average ⬆ 📈
https://t.co/0V0eTDcY7j pic.twitter.com/m6DX0e8MUI
RT @War_Mapper #UkraineWar #RussianUkrainianWar 4 Maps of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine at #Bakhmut since 4 months: 🇺🇦🗺️17th jan, 🇺🇦🗺️17th feb, 🇺🇦🗺️17th march and 🇺🇦🗺️17th april 2023 🇺🇦 Bakhmut holds 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/LyZYubZtaM
The Donbass Devushka account reportedly shared four of the allegedly leaked classified documents about the war in Ukraine.
To recap: A small number of secret military documents were found on Twitter and Telegram on Wednesday, and researchers and social media sleuths have since discovered more on other sites — some posted as early as March 1.
The documents viewed by NPR appear to be briefing slides — put together daily for top Pentagon and national security officials — focused on Ukraine, with maps and charts pertaining to their troops and weapons, national security correspondent Greg Myre told Morning Edition.
Their discovery comes as Ukraine prepares to launch a counteroffensive sometime this spring, and it's not yet clear what kind of impact the new material could have on the trajectory of the war.
While there's still a lot we don't know, former Justice Department "leak czar" Brandon Van Grack says national security damage has certainly been done.
www.npr.org/…
The more time you spend talking about whether the leaker is a good person, the less you’re devoting to the official deception and misbehavior the leaks have shed light on.
The Ukraine war documents leak is a very big deal. Among other things, the documents reveal that the Biden administration has been misleading the public about its upbeat assessment of the Ukrainian war effort. The leak lays bare the extent of US spying on friends and enemies alike, including the United Nations secretary general. It shows that friendly nations dependent on US largesse have quietly been undermining Washington’s geopolitical interests. It makes clear that the world came far closer to unimaginable catastrophe during last year’s September run-in between British and Russian pilots than we were told at the time. And it confirms that the United States and NATO allies do have boots on the ground in the war-torn country in the form of ninety-seven special forces personnel.
But for some reason, that is not what anyone is talking about in response to these leaks.
Rather than the jaw-dropping disclosures, which this brief list only scratches the surface of and which have major implications for US security, the political establishment has instead fixated on the leaker, his motives, his personal faults, and what the government is doing to make sure this doesn’t happen again. Before we even knew the identity of the leaker, major press institutions like the Washington Post proclaimed the leak a grave violation and threat to national security, practically calling for the leaker’s head on a plate.
jacobin.com/...
x A leak of hundreds of classified U.S. documents includes assessments of the situation in Ukraine and revelations about the United States spying on allies.
Here are the biggest takeaways from our reporting:
https://t.co/WhCmLICl7M — The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 17, 2023
The Department of Justice is investigating a former Navy non-commissioned officer for her role in social media accounts that posted a series of leaked Pentagon documents, two U.S. defense officials told USNI News on Monday.
Sarah Bils, 37, a former aviation electronics technician 2nd Class who was last stationed at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Wash., according to her official Navy biography, is allegedly behind a pro-Russian series of social media accounts under the banner of “Donbass Devushka,” The Wall Street Journal first reported. The people behind the Donbass Devushka network allegedly posted at least four of the classified documents, leaked by Massachusetts Air Guardsman Jack Teixeira, to their Telegram social media channel.
Bils is an administrator for the Donbass Devushka properties, which is now a network of 15 people, she told The Wall Street Journal. It’s unclear if Bils, who had a security clearance as part of her Navy career, used it to access classified documents. The handle is a combination of the contested Donbass region in eastern Ukraine and the Russian word for “young lady.”
"The documents are real. I’m not saying the documents are fabrications, they are not. But this cover story that's been manufactured to explain how these documents came to be produced, it just falls apart... This thing is too tidy a package, this has been wrapped up nice and neatly, this is like an episode of 'Law And Order.'" www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Bils told The Wall Street Journal that another administrator on the accounts posted four of the documents to the Donbass Devushka Telegram channel. Several Pro-Russian social media accounts picked up the documents after they were shared. The Donbass Devushka social media accounts are the largest English-speaking, pro-Russian accounts that engage in “Russian–style information warfare,” Bils told the Journal. USNI News was unable to reach Bils using listed numbers on Monday.
Bils was identified as one of the personas behind the Donbass Devushka social media account by the North Atlantic Fella Organisation (NAFO) – an open source intelligence group that specializes in exposing Russian misinformation.
news.usni.org/…
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