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Minnesota State House Districts (2024): HD 54A, HD 55A, HD 57B, HD 56B, HD 53B [1]

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Date: 2023-04-05

Today, I am looking at five more Minnesota house districts: HD 54A, HD 55A, HD 57B, HD 56B, and HD 53B, all of which are based in the southern part of the Twin Cities metro area.

Minnesota House District 54A

MN HD 54A is home the communities of Shakopee and Barden. HD 54A largely overlaps with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 55A, which like many other suburban districts had moved towards the Dems in recent years. Specifically, HD 55A had gone from supporting Mitt Romney by between 5 and 6 points to supporting Donald Trump in 2016 by about 4.5 points to supporting Joe Biden by nearly 7 points. HD 55A flipped to the Democrats in 2018, with Dem Brad Tabke narrowly defeating Republican Erik Mortensen by about 3.5 points. (Mortensen defeated the incumbent Republican in the primary). However, Mortensen managed to flip the seat back in 2020, as he narrowly defeated Tabke by a little more than 2 points. It should be noted that there was a third-party Legalize Marijuana Now (LMN) candidate on the ballot who got over 7% of the total vote, very likely costing the Dems the seat (as Mortensen won with under 48% of the vote). HD 54A is slightly bluer than HD 55A, with Biden’s margin expanding to about 8 points in the former district. Tabke was able to flip back HD 54A in 2022 in his third rematch with Mortensen, winning the seat by a fairly impressive 8-point margin, a considerable improvement over his narrow 2020 loss. (By comparison, the same LMN candidate was on the ballot in 2022, though he only got about 4% of the vote). Walz and Simon both carried the district by about 9 points in 2022, outperforming Tabke (as well as Biden) by about a percentage point. The Dems should definitely be favored here, but it does seem reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying HD 54A as Lean Democrat.

Minnesota House District 55A

MN HD 55A contains communities such as Savage. HD 55A is very similar to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 56A which had trended heavily towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from supporting Romney by between 3 and 4 points, to supporting Hillary Clinton by about 3 points, to supporting Biden by a little more than 12 points. At the state house level, Democrat Hunter Cantrell was able to flip HD 56A in 2018, as he defeated Republican incumbent Drew Christensen by between 5 and 6 points. (Christensen had previously been reelected by a decent 12-point margin in 2016.) The 2020 state house race was more competitive, with Democrat Jessica Hanson winning the open seat by a fairly close margin of just over 3 points, underperforming Biden by a fairly substantial amount. It should be noted that Hanson’s Republican opponent Pam Myhra had previously represented the seat before (and therefore likely had some name recognition). In 2022, Hanson won reelection to HD 55A by a larger, but still reasonably close margin of about 6 points. In comparison to the statewide Democrats, Hanson underperformed both Walz and Simon, who carried the district by about 11 points. (For comparison, Biden carried the district by just under 12 points, less than a percentage point worse than his margin in HD 56A). Hanson should be favored somewhat, but the district should still be competitive, as it seems to be a bit friendlier to the GOP at the state house level. I’m classifying HD 55A as Lean Democrat.

Minnesota House District 57B

MN HD 57A encompasses parts of the community of Lakeville. HD 57B largely overlaps the pre-2022 iteration of HD 58A, which was a Republican-leaning district that moved just a few points to the left at the presidential level between 2012 and 2016, with Trump carrying the district by about 12 points (a few points worse than Romney), but considerably further to the left in 2020, with Trump only carrying the district by a percentage point. The recent state house races for HD 58A were not too competitive, with the Republican incumbent winning reelection by a little more than 11 points in 2018 and performing about a percentage point better in 2020. HD 57A is a few points bluer than HD 58A, with the new district removing southern parts of Lakeville and adding in eastern parts of the city. In particular, Biden narrowly carried HD 57B by nearly 2 points. The 2022 state house race was also very close, with Republican Jeff Witte winning the open seat by just over 3 points. Both Walz and Simon carried the district by about 3 points in 2022, outperforming Biden by about a point. The district should be highly contested again this cycle and is another decent Dem pick-up opportunity. I’m classifying HD 57B as a Toss Up.

Minnesota House District 56B

MN HD 56B contains parts of the community of Rosemount. HD 56B largely overlaps and is very similar partisan-wise to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 57B, which had been trending blue in recent years, having gone from narrowly supporting Romney by less than a percentage point to supporting Clinton by about 4.5 points to supporting Biden by a larger 14-point margin. Democrat John Huot was able to flip that seat in 2018, as he narrowly defeated Republican incumbent Anna Wills by about 4 points. Huot was reelected by a larger margin of about 10 points in 2020 (in HD 57B) and by a little more than 11 points in 2022 in HD 56B. At the statewide level in 2022, both Walz and Simon easily carried the seat by just under 16 and 17 points, respectively, outperforming Huot by several points. Huot should be heavily favored this cycle, given how favorable the district is to Dems now, but the seat does have the potential to be competitive. I’m classifying HD 56B as Likely Democrat.

Minnesota House District 53B

MN HD 53B is home to the communities of South Saint Paul and Newport. HD 53B has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 52A and HD 54A. HD 52A was a solidly Dem district, having gone for Biden by nearly 30 points, while HD 54A was a very swingy district, both at the presidential and state house level. At the presidential level, HD 54A went from supporting Obama by about to 14 points in 2012 to just narrowly supporting Clinton by about 3 points to supporting Biden by a larger 11-point margin, while at the state house level, HD 54A flipped to the Republicans in 2016, with Republican Keith Franke winning the open seat by about 3 points, and then back to the Dems in 2018, with Dem Ann Claflin defeating Franke by about 2 points, and then back to the Republicans again in 2020, with Franke defeating Claflin by about 3 points in a rematch (despite Biden carrying the seat by double digits). HD 53B supported Biden by about 15 points in 2020, in-between his margins in HD 52A and HD 54A (but closer to HD 54A). Democrat Rick Hansen, who had been representing HD 52A, easily won reelection in HD 53B in 2022 by about a 15-point margin. The 2022 statewide Democrats all fairly easily carried the district as well, closest in the State Auditor’s race, where Julie Blaha carried it by between 9 and 10 points. The Democrats should be pretty safe here, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given that some of the previous results in overlapping districts have been competitive. I’m classifying HD 53B as Likely Democrat (though I could see shifting the seat to “Safe Democrat” if Republicans end up not seriously contesting it).

Thanks to Minnesota Secretary of State website (for the 2022 statewide results of the new districts), cnanalysis.com (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/5/2162181/-Minnesota-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-54A-HD-55A-HD-57B-HD-56B-HD-53B

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