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Ukraine Invasion Day 405: it was loaded, it exploded [1]

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Date: 2023-04-03

Russian authorities also continue to struggle with the reconstruction of the Kerch Strait Bridge. Satellite imagery posted on April 3 shows that Russian authorities continue efforts to restore the Kerch Strait Bridge rail track.[46] Krasnodar Krai local news outlet Krasnodarskye Izvestia reported on April 1 that the Kerch Strait road bridge has faced traffic jams of 1.7 to 2km long on both sides of the bridge due to security checkpoints, and that 128 heavy trucks waited in line to ferry across the Kerch Strait that morning.[47]

An explosion tore through a café in St. Petersburg, Russia on Sunday evening, injuring 30 people and killing Vladlen Tatarsky, a military blogger and boisterous supporter of the Russian war in Ukraine.

Russian police have arrested a woman suspected of delivering a bomb that killed a prominent pro-war Russian military blogger in a blast in a cafe in central St Petersburg on Sunday. Vladlen Tatarsky, whose real name was Maxim Fomin, was killed by a bomb blast as he hosted a discussion with other pro-war commentators at a cafe on the banks of the Neva River in the historic heart of the city. Police said they had identified a woman called Darya Trepova as the suspect and that she was arrested in a flat in St Petersburg after a search on Monday morning. x The full video shows Trepova walking into view from top right of screen holding a package, walking past the cafe entrance and then coming back the same way before going inside https://t.co/obUfhCuubt pic.twitter.com/JE4fsjYVqL — KT "Special CIA Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) April 3, 2023 We two kings of Orient are... Tried to smoke a rubber cigar. It was loaded, it exploded... I, one king of Orient are... Tried to smoke a rubber cigar. It was loaded, it exploded The crowd gathered at the café—which was reportedly once owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the paramilitary group Wagner PMC—to watch a discussion with Tatarsky hosted by a pro-war group, Fontanka reported. Tatarsky’s death highlights the rise of military bloggers during the war. As Russia has repressed open discussion—including by restricting what both traditional media and the public can say about the conflict—such bloggers have become a popular source of information, as the Moscow Times has reported. Writing on social networks like the messaging app Telegram, these bloggers, who often have ties to the Russian military or paramilitary groups like Wagner, share reporting from the frontlines and analysis— even, at times, criticizing Russian war strategy. time.com/... x New video of the woman arrested does not look like the woman who went inside the cafe with the package — KT "Special CIA Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) April 3, 2023 x I already see "Ukr killed poor Ru journalist in a cafe, terror attack!" First of all, Maksim Fomin aka Tatarskiy was a convicted bank robber from Makiivka, Donetsk. He had nothing to do with journalism. He joined Ru cause in Ukraine he was supposed to serve 12 years in prison. 👇 pic.twitter.com/4eCcxiOic1 — Nika Melkozerova (@NikaMelkozerova) April 3, 2023 Wagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April 2. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin raised a Russian flag with an inscription in memory of assassinated milblogger Maksim Fomin across from the Bakhmut City Administration building the night of April 2 and claimed that Wagner “legally controls” Bakhmut, though Ukrainian troops remain in the western part of the city.[1] Russian forces made further advances on April 3, with drone footage posted on April 3 depicting Wagner Group and Russian flags planted over the rubble of the destroyed administration building.[2] Several Russian milbloggers additionally circulated an image of a Wagner fighter standing in front of the Bakhmut City Administration building before its destruction.[3] The Wagner Group likely will continue attempts to consolidate control of central Bakhmut and attempt to push westward through dense urban areas toward Khromove. www.understandingwar.org/...

Finland will become the 31st member of the world’s biggest military alliance on Tuesday, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said. Stoltenberg said Turkey, the last country to ratify Finland’s membership, would hand its official texts to the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, on Tuesday. Stoltenberg said he would then invite Finland to do the same.

Stoltenberg’s announcement prompted a warning from Russia that it would bolster its defences near their joint border if Nato deployed any troops inside the country. “We will strengthen our military potential in the west and in the north-west,” Grushko said in remarks carried by the RIA Novosti state news agency.

Russian drones struck the strategic Ukrainian port of Odesa overnight on Tuesday, local authorities said, adding that “damage” had been recorded. “The enemy has just struck Odesa and the Odesa district with attack UAVs,” local authorities said in a statement on Facebook, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles. “There is damage,” the statement said without providing further details.

Ukraine has said Russian forces are “very far” from capturing the eastern town of Bakhmut and that fighting raged around the city administration building where the Wagner mercenary group claims to have raised the Russian flag. Six civilians were killed and eight wounded in Russian shelling of Kostiantynivka near Bakhmut, a senior Ukrainian official said.

Former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo visited Ukraine on Monday and said he would work towards Washington supplying F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles for the country’s war against Russia. Asked whether he would back providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles Pompeo said: “Yes. And the training and the software and all the things needed to actually protect and defend your own land.”

Pompeo’s visit coincides with discussion in the United States around how much further support should be given to Ukraine. Washington has already provided $30bn in military aid since the beginning of what Moscow calls its “special military operation”. www.theguardian.com/… Russian security services reportedly continue to confiscate the passports of senior officials and state company executives to limit flight from Russia. Financial Times reported on April 2 that the Russian security services seek to prevent senior officials, ex-officials, and state company executives from traveling abroad, indicating that the Kremlin continues to fear elites will flee Russia.[17] Current Time TV and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty-associated investigative project “Sistema” reported on March 10 that the Russian security officials told government officials and employees of state-owned companies to hand over their passports on threat of forcibly revoking an individual’s passports or forced resignation.[18] Key Takeaways Wagner Group fighters made further advances in central Bakhmut and seized the Bakhmut City Administration Building on the night of April 2.

Russian authorities are blaming Ukrainian government entities and Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny for the assassination of Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tartarsky).

Official Russian responses to Fomin’s death failed to generate a single narrative in the information space and led to disjointed responses from prominent pro-war voices.

Russian security services reportedly continue to confiscate passports of senior officials and state company executives in an effort to limit flight from Russia.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian sources reported on April 3 that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) units received TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems for the first time.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian officials likely remain concerned about a potential Ukrainian threat to Crimea amid continued fortification and logistical efforts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree establishing a state fund to support military personnel who participate in the war in Ukraine and their families.

Likely Ukrainian partisans used an improvised explosive device (IED) to target a former Russian occupation official in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast. www.understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 3



14:5 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by Oryx (duplicates also removed)



VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

3.15x losses to date ⬇

2.81x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ⬇

3.84x 30-day average ⬇



📈 https://t.co/dz9sAIlyx3 pic.twitter.com/ag11myhep5 — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) April 3, 2023

www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1— Luhansk Oblast ( Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on April 2 and 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Nevske (20km northwest of Kreminna), the Serebrianska forest area (10km south of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Verkhnokamianske (18km south of Kreminna).[19] A Russian milblogger claimed that BARS-13 (Russian Combat Reserve) elements are operating near Kreminna and that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks with artillery support near Torske, Nevske, Terny, and Makiivka (all within 14 to 21km west or northwest of Kreminna) on April 2 and 3.[20] Geolocated footage published on April 1 shows that Ukrainian forces made a limited advance southwest of Chervonopopivka (5km northwest of Kreminna) on an unspecified date.[21] Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev posted footage allegedly showing elements of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd LNR Army Corps) operating in the Kreminna direction.[22] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Oleksii Smirnov reported on April 3 that Ukrainian forces continue to repel constant attacks on Bilohorivka even though Russian forces have more troops near the settlement.[23] Another milblogger published footage on April 3 purportedly showing elements of the Russian 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division operating near Kreminna.[24] www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Wagner Group forces continued advancing in central Bakhmut on April 2 and 3. Geolocated footage posted on April 1 shows a Ukrainian missile strike on Russian positions in the AZOM complex in northern Bakhmut, confirming that the Wagner Group likely seized the complex around March 28, as ISW previously reported.[28] Geolocated footage taken on the night of April 2 shows Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin raising a Russian flag in front of the Bakhmut City Administration Building.[29] Several milbloggers additionally circulated an image of a Wagner fighter standing in front of an office door in the Bakhmut City Administration building itself.[30] Russian milbloggers claimed on April 2 and 3 that Wagner forces continued to consolidate control of streets and urban areas near central Bakhmut, and that heavy fighting continued southwest of Bakhmut near the Ivanivske sector of the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway.[31] Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops are withdrawing to the western part of the city.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 2 and 3 that Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself, northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (12km northwest), and southwest of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km southwest) and Predtechyne (15km southwest).[33] Ukrainian military officials supported ISW’s assessment that Russian Airborne (VDV) forces are increasingly supporting Wagner operations in Bakhmut.[34] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian officials likely remain concerned about a potential Ukrainian threat to occupied Crimea amid continued defensive and logistical preparations on the peninsula. Satellite imagery posted on April 1 shows that Russian forces have erected defensive lines along key ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and logistics nodes in Crimea, including near Armyansk, along the E105 south of Chonhar (34km northeast of Dzhankoy), along the E97 highway near Filativka (8km southeast of Armyansk), near Vorontsivka (20km south of Armyansk), and along the beaches of Yevpatoria in western Crimea.[44] The Washington Post reported that Russian authorities have focused on erecting new defenses in Crimea in the past few weeks amid rumors of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, including near Vitino on Crimea’s western coast (15km west of Yevpatoria), Medvedivka (22km northeast of Dzhankoy), Armyansk, Maslove (9km north of Dzhankoy), and Novoivanivka (32km northwest of Dzhankoy).[45] The Washington Post also reported that Russian forces have established extensive fortifications along the approach to Crimea from occupied Kherson Oblast. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...

x "He was a crazy idiot." Putin dismissed the general who failed the offensive on Vuhledar



Colonel General Rustam Muradov was dismissed from his post as commander of the Eastern Military District and removed from command in Ukraine just 7 months after his appointment, two military… pic.twitter.com/J65UQSXybH — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 3, 2023

x Yet another Nord Stream bombing narrative falls apart. But it's served a purpose, offering a counter-narrative to Sy Hersh's scoop at a time when a lot of westoids badly needed that counter-narrative.

Hersh's account is still the only one standing.https://t.co/GbFQBxCQCS — Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) April 3, 2023

x To the front. Wagner makes territorial gains in central Bakhmut. It is unlikely that 🇺🇦 troops still have (full) control over the area to the northeast. To the south(west) it is stable. There is a real possibility that 🇺🇦troops have taken up new positions west of the train tracks pic.twitter.com/aiMxDQnAKL — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 3, 2023

x The quick growth of the Muslim community in Moscow creates tensions.



Locals have started protesting against the construction of a mosque on what is consider a Christian holy site



Now, Russian soldier in Ukraine, Christian and Muslim, are arguing about it pic.twitter.com/qQPsq3Ed0q — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 3, 2023

x “In the new Sino-Russian defense relationship, China does what it wants, and there isn’t a whole lot Russia can do about it.” pic.twitter.com/mIvgNR3MzC — Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) April 3, 2023

x The Guardian view on Finland’s election: another episode of nordic noir | Editorial https://t.co/s0HlJJVuvJ — The Guardian (@guardian) April 3, 2023

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