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Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus will signal escalation [1]
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Date: 2023-03-29
As Russia notified the world it plans to station tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, it undoubtedly raises tensions and increases the risk of conflict in the region. This dangerous move is seen as a significant provocation by neighboring countries, particularly those with historical animosity towards Russia, such as Poland and Lithuania. Additionally, it could trigger a response from NATO, which has recently increased its military presence in the region as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus undermines international efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The use of tactical nuclear weapons, which are designed for battlefield use rather than strategic strikes, would also lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and increase the risk of nuclear war.
Calls for renewed sanctions against Moscow have emerged following Putin's announcement to station nuclear weapons near the European Union's borders. Experts warn of the growing risk of a nuclear conflict and suggest that a potential Russian attack would likely involve the deployment of "tactical" nuclear weapons, smaller in size and meant for battlefield use, as opposed to "strategic" nuclear weapons, which are more powerful and have a longer range.
According to the Moscow Times, “Belarus stressed that it would not have control over the weapons and that their deployment "in no way" contradicted the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.”
According to the UN, the NPT is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.
In a press conference he gave to Russian journalists, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed his move was justified since the US has stationed nuclear weapons with its allies in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey for a long time. He argued that Russia is simply following the same practice by stationing nuclear weapons in its ally Belarus.
“There is nothing unusual here either: firstly, the United States has been doing this for decades. They have long deployed their tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of their allied countries,” he said.
“We agreed that we will do the same – without violating our obligations, I emphasise, without violating our international obligations on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.”
However, the US deployment of nuclear weapons in NATO countries dates back to the Cold War era, whereas the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which came into effect in January 2022, prohibits the hosting of nuclear weapons by non-nuclear powers such as Belarus.
According to Artyom Shraibman at the Carnegie Endowment for International peace, hosting Russian nuclear weapons will have far-reaching consequences for Belarus. He notes that “The lack of detail appears to confirm that the aim of the announcement is to signal to Russia’s adversaries—primarily the United States—that they still have time to change trajectory and agree terms with Russia to ensure that that storage facility remains empty. If nuclear weapons in Belarus were actually required for military purposes, Russia would hardly have announced that publicly, in advance, and with a specific timeframe.”
Shraibman also says Russia is presenting the deployment not just as a decision made by both countries, but as a response to long-standing requests by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. For nearly eighteen months, the contested leader of Belarus has been discussing the potential deployment of nuclear weapons in his country. In November 2021, before the war in Ukraine, he proposed the idea as a potential retaliation to the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Poland. However, it is unlikely that Lukashenko was aware of the upcoming war or Putin's future use of nuclear threats. Rather, it is probable that Belarus was engaging in a typical foreign policy strategy of providing the most extreme security measures in anticipation of potential political and economic backing from Moscow.
The international community is wary of Russia’s escalation. US President Joe Biden told CNN in October: “It would be irresponsible for me to talk about what we would or wouldn’t do.”
He added: “The mistakes get made, the miscalculation could occur, no one could be sure what would happen and it could end in Armageddon.”
“We have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture nor any indications Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon,” U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said. “We remain committed to the collective defense of the NATO alliance.”
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Brussels will act to impose new sanctions on Belarus if Minsk were to house Putin’s nuclear arms. “Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation and threat to European security,” Borrell said in a tweet on Sunday. “Belarus can still stop it, it is their choice.”
Oana Lungescu, spokesperson for the defense alliance, said in a tweet: “NATO is vigilant, and we are closely monitoring the situation. We have not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would lead us to adjust our own.”
The Polish Foreign Ministry on Sunday said Putin’s announcement “further increases tensions over Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is a further step towards drawing Belarus into the cogs of the Russian war machine,” the ministry said in a tweet.
Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, charged that Russia “took Belarus as a nuclear hostage.”
The deployment of nuclear weapons is widely considered as a major escalation in any conflict due to the destructive power and catastrophic consequences that they can unleash. Nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to humanity, and their use or even their mere possession can have significant political and strategic implications. The deployment of such weapons sends a signal to potential adversaries that a country is willing to use nuclear weapons to protect its interests, which can be perceived as a threat to regional and global security.
Moreover, the deployment of nuclear weapons can also lead to an arms race, as other countries may feel compelled to develop their own nuclear weapons to counter the perceived threat. This could further destabilize the international security environment and increase the risk of nuclear proliferation.
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