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Minnesota State House Districts (2024): HD 33A, HD 33B, HD 41A, HD 41B, HD 47B [1]

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Date: 2023-03-29

Today, I am looking at five more Minnesota state house districts: HD 33A, HD 33B, HD 41A, HD 41B, and HD 47B, all of which are located in the eastern part of the Twin Cities Metro area (greater Minneapolis – St. Paul).

Minnesota House District 33A

MN HD 33A is home to the communities of Hugo and Dellwood. HD 33A has moved to the left at the presidential level in recent years and was moderately competitive in 2020, having supported Donald Trump by almost 7 points. In 2022, Democrats Tim Walz (in the Governor’s race) and Steve Simon (in the Secretary of State race) further improved on the margins for Democrats, as they lost the district by about 3 to 4 points. However, Democrats were less successful at the state house level, with Republican Patti Anderson winning the open seat by about by almost 11 points. (Anderson had previously run in the chamber in 2020, narrowly losing in the more Dem-leaning HD 38B by less than 2 points.) The GOP should be heavily favored here this cycle, but the district does have the potential to be competitive, given the reasonably close presidential and statewide results. I’m classifying HD 33A as Likely Republican.

Minnesota House District 33B

MN HD 33B includes communities such as Stillwater and Oak Park Heights. HD 33B is a fairly Democratic leaning district, having gone for Joe Biden by about 8 points. In 2022, both Walz and Simon improved on Biden’s margin in the district, with the former carrying the seat by just over 11 points and the latter carrying it by just over 12 points, and unlike in a lot of other suburban districts, Dems Julie Blaha (State Auditor) and Keith Ellison (Attorney General) were able to win the seat, by between 2 and 3 points in both cases. (Note that both Blaha and Ellison won by less than a percentage point statewide.) The 2022 state house race for HD 33B was somewhat competitive, with Democrat Josiah Hill winning the open seat by just under 8 points. Hill should be favored this cycle, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race. I’m classifying HD 33B as Lean Democrat.

Minnesota House District 41A

MN HD 41A encompasses communities such as Afton and Lakeland. HD 41 largely overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of HD 39B and HD 54B, both of which were fairly closely divided districts, with Biden carrying the former by just under 7 points and Trump very narrowly carrying the latter by less than half a percentage point in 2020. The recent state house races were also competitive. In 2018, Democrat Shelly Christensen narrowly flipped HD 39B by less than a percentage point, defeating Republican incumbent Kathy Lohmer, and was reelected in 2020 by a similarly narrow margin, while Republican Tony Jurgens was narrowly reelected in HD 54B by about 2 points in 2018 and by a larger margin of about 7 points in 2020. HD 41A supported Biden by just over 4 points, which isn’t too surprising given that this is between his margins in HD 39B and HD54B. The district also featured an extremely close state house race in 2022, with Republican Mark Wiens winning the open seat by a razor-thin 128 vote margin (about half a percentage point). With regards to the statewide Dems in 2022, both Walz and Simon carried the district by about 5 to 6 points, running slightly ahead of Biden. In addition, the Democrats also narrowly carried the district in the overlapping State Senate race in 2022. The district should be competitive again this cycle, given its closely divided nature, and a decent pick-up opportunity for Democrats. I’m classifying HD 41A as a Toss Up.

Minnesota House District 41B

MN HD 41B is home to community of Hastings and parts of Cottage Grove and, like the previously covered HD 41A, HD 41B largely overlaps the pre-2022 iteration of HD 54B. HD 41B was extremely close at the presidential level in 2020, with Biden narrowly winning the seat by less than a percentage point. The district also featured a competitive state house race in 2022, with Republican Shane Hudella winning the open seat by a little more than 2 points. At the statewide level, both Walz and Simon carried the district by about 3 to 4 points, slightly improving on Biden’s margin. In addition, Democrat Angie Craig also narrowly carried the seat by less than 100 votes in her U.S. Congressional race in 2022. HD 41B should be another strong pick-up opportunity for Dems, given how close the previous election results have been. I’m classifying HD 41B as a Toss Up.

Minnesota House District 47B

MN HD 47B contains parts of the community of Woodbury. HD 47B largely overlaps and is very similar partisan-wise to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 53B. HD 53B has trended very rapidly towards the Dems in recent years, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by a little more than 5 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by nearly 9 points to supporting Biden by nearly 18 points. Despite Biden’s large margin in the region, the state house race for HD 47B in 2022 was quite a bit closer, with Democrat Ethan Cha winning the open seat by a little more than 6 points. In comparison to the 2022 statewide Dem performances in the district, Cha did about the same as Blaha and Ellison, but considerably underperformed Walz and Simon, who easily carried the seat by about 17 points. Cha should be favored to hold the seat this cycle, especially given that he is now an incumbent (unlike in 2022), but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given the district’s ancestral GOP nature. I’m classifying HD 47B as Lean Democrat.

Thanks to Minnesota Secretary of State website (for the 2022 statewide results of the new districts), cnanalysis.com (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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