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Ukraine Invasion Day 398: war and storytelling may change with the counteroffensive [1]
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Date: 2023-03-27
The new air assets like the transfer of MiG-29s and possibly French Mirage 2000s, plus the associated air to surface ordnance could mean a different narrative arc for the next phase of the war.
The chair of Ukraine’s parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, has told British lawmakers that Kyiv is ready to send its pilots to be trained in the use of western fighter jets. Stefanchuk, speaking during a visit to the UK, said Kyiv could bring “joint victory for Ukraine and the world” once it “gets the wings” , in language echoing that of Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s speech to the British parliament in February.
The UN security council on Monday declined a Russian request to investigate who blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline . Russia, China and Brazil voted in favour of the motion to investigate, but it failed as it lacked the nine votes needed in the 15-nation council to carry. The US deputy ambassador Robert Wood said there was no need with separate investigations already under way.
Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s president, told the IAEA head, Rafael Grossi, that safety at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility could not be guaranteed until Russian troops left. The pair met on Monday to discuss the management of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant and had a “rich exchange” according to Grossi.
At least two people were killed in a Russian missile strike in the eastern city of Sloviansk on Monday, according to the regional governor. The attack left 29 others wounded, Pavlo Kyrylenko said, adding that a number of high-rise buildings and offices were damaged or destroyed. Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted a video clip that showed vehicles on fire and debris strewn across the road.
Ukraine’s ground forces commander said his troops were continuing to repel heavy Russian attacks on the eastern city of Bakhmut and that defending it was a “military necessity”. Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi’s comments signalled again Ukraine’s intention to keep fighting in Bakhmut despite the heavy death toll.
Multiple explosions were reported in Kyiv on Monday night, according to the mayor, Vitaliy Klitschko. Klitschko said a shop caught fire in the west but there were no immediate reports of casualties. Kyiv air defence said it shot down all drones involved.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1— Luhansk Oblast ( Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 26 and 27 and have made marginal gains in the Svatove area as of March 27. Geolocated footage posted on March 27 indicates that Russian troops have advanced into Raihorodka, 12km west of Svatove.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations near Synkivka (10km northeast of Kupyansk), Kreminna, Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), Vyimka (25km south of Kreminna), and Vesele (30km south of Kreminna) on March 26 and 27.[16] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on March 26 that elements of the Western Grouping of Forces (Western Military District) destroyed Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups near Stelmakhivka, 12km northwest of Svatove.[17] Russian milbloggers reported that elements of the Russian 331st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th Guards Airborne Division) and 76th Guards VDV Division are operating in forest areas near Kreminna.[18] A Russian military correspondent reportedly embedded with Russian troops near Kreminna claimed on March 26 that Russian paratroopers and unspecified naval infantry elements are advancing 500 meters per day near Kreminna and capturing Ukrainian fortified positions.[19] A Russian milblogger noted on March 27 that Russian forces are additionally continuing attempts to push west of Ploshchanka (15km north of Kreminna).[20] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty reported on March 26 that Russian forces are conducting the highest number of artillery strikes along the entire Kupyansk-Lyman line and that there were 10 combat clashes on this line over the past day.[21]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on March 26 and 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 26 and 27 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka itself; in the Avdiivka area near Novokalynove (10km north of Avdiivka), Severne (5km west of Avdiivka), Tonenke (5km west of Avdiivka), Stepove (8km northwest of Avdiivka), and Novobakhmutivka (11km northwest of Avdiivka); on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Krasnohorivka; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka.[29] Avdiivka Military Administration Head Vitaly Barbarash announced on March 27 that communal service workers are evacuating Avdiivka and that the military administration will turn off mobile communications in the city due to the presence of Russian informants in the city.[30] Ukrainian Tavriisk Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivyskyi stated on March 25 that elements of the Russian 10th Regiment (likely a Donetsk People’s Republic formation newly subordinated to Russian command) are fighting in the Avdiivka area.[31] Russian milbloggers continued to discuss Russian operations towards Avdiivka on both March 26 and March 27.[32] One milblogger claimed that Russian forces entered Novokalynove and are attacking towards Keramik.[33] Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian forces advanced on the northern outskirts of Marinka on March 26 and continued fighting for the settlement on March 27.[34] Geolocated footage posted on March 26 additionally shows that Russian forces have advanced north of Novomykhailivka, about 10km south of Avdiivka.[35] Dmytrashkivskyi noted that elements of the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) have recently engaged in Marinka.[36]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut on March 26 and 27 and made gains within Bakhmut as of March 26. Geolocated footage posted on March 24 and 26 shows that Russian forces have likely advanced along Zelena Street and Oleksandry Kolpakovoi streets in northwestern Bakhmut.[22] Russian media outlet RIA Novosti additionally posted footage on March 26 confirming that Wagner Group fighters have advanced within the AZOM complex in northern Bakhmut.[23] Geolocated footage posted on March 27 shows Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin visiting School No.5 near central Bakhmut.[24] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group fighters reached the rail line in northern Bakhmut on March 26 and continued advancing within urban areas of northern and southwestern Bakhmut in an effort to reach Bakhmut’s city center on March 26 and 27.[25] A prominent milblogger noted on March 26 that Wagner is advancing in Bakhmut with support from unspecified conventional Russian elements, supporting ISW’s assessment that conventional formations are increasingly supporting Wagner’s offensive on Bakhmut.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka (6km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske (5km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Predtechyne (15km southwest) between March 26 and 27.[27] Ukrainian Eastern Group Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty noted on March 26 that the number of Russian attacks on Bakhmut is decreasing and suggested that Russian forces may be ”maneuvering with reserves” in the area.[28]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in southern Ukraine. Russian sources claimed on March 27 that the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) is operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[40] Personnel of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade previously claimed they would deploy to the Vuhledar direction to relieve the exhausted 155th Naval Infantry Brigade which is committed to the area, but a Russian milblogger claimed on March 21 that unspecified elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade are instead operating in the Avdiivka direction.[41] The apparent simultaneous commitment of elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade to two disparate areas of the frontline is notably not a doctrinally sound pattern of deployment. Other Russian sources claimed that unspecified Russian Airborne (VDV) personnel are operating near Hulyaipole, Zaporizhia Oblast.[42] Russia has deployed various VDV formations across the theater, further indicating that Russia has not concentrated its most elite forces for any concerted push in one discrete area of the front.
www.understandingwar.org/...
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