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Kitchen Table Kibitzing 3/25/23: You are a rock....you are an island [1]

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Date: 2023-03-25

What they found illustrates a consequence of rising sea levels that most people tend to ignore. While many of us can picture houses being submerged or washed away from the gradual encroachment of water as the ocean begins to regularly exceed the land’s topography, it’s easy to forget the fact that even if your home is untouched by rising water and stays “high and dry,” you can still be cut off—essentially, marooned -- because the road you rely on to get to the store, the hospital, or receive ambulance or fire services, has been inundated, rendering your property fairly unsustainable, if not unlivable.

Conceptually, isolation is pretty easy to understand. While some people on the coast may live on relatively high ground, access to their homes can involve a road that goes through low-lying areas. As such, sea level rise can mean people living there start to lose road access due to flooding at high tide long before any ocean shows up on the property. While things like trips for groceries can be planned around tidal flooding, access to things like schools and emergency services typically can't be planned around the tides. Inundation of roads can also weaken their foundations, leading to failure or maintenance that can take them out of use. Finally, we often run critical infrastructure—water and sewer lines, electricity, networking—along roadways. So there are various ways that losing road access, even from periodic flooding, can make living somewhere untenable.

Under the research group’s “intermediate” scenario (reflecting a one-meter rise by century’s end) the team found that by 2080 approximately one million Americans would be “isolated” and unable to access basic services.

I know, I know, none of us will be alive in 2080. “So where’s my island?” you ask. Well, the best news is that under the 2.0 meter sea rise scenario (which seems increasingly likely as the Antarctic and Greenland melt away before our eyes), some of you lucky coastal dwellers can start building your helicopter pads right now. Because many areas under that scenario will be “isolated” by 2030. Just think of it — in seven years you can retire as a genuine islander! Boating back and forth to friends’ houses for evening cocktails, fishing in your backyard…listening to Jimmy Buffett, humming “Kokomo”... the good life awaits you in just under seven years!

And the researchers estimate that 4 million residents would be at risk of isolation in neighborhoods that would remain above water even under the high sea level rise scenario. These risks are also spread unevenly. For example, the risk of isolation is higher in Maine than in Florida, although Florida's larger population means that more people would be at risk.

The researchers have also created an awesome interactive map so those of us lucky folks who live near the ocean can find out, on a county by county basis, just how likely the potential is for our “isolation” due to inundated roads to essential services. You can also use this map to see (based on current population data) exactly how many people are likely to live with you on your "island" (hope you get along with those neighbors!). You can also tell how many unlucky folks are likely going to have their homes submerged completely.

Have a great night! Here’s the Beach Boys to get you in the mood:

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/25/2160210/-Kitchen-Table-Kibitzing-3-25-23-You-are-a-rock-you-are-an-island

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