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Weekly Canvass Report for Arizona and Florida: Early Organizing, Voter Reg and Data Collection Works [1]
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Date: 2023-03-23
Like last year, one of our biggest worries is, did we start knocking on doors too soon? It’s a risk, because volunteers won’t come out if it is too nippy. Not that you can blame them. I choose wrong this week. Shoulda gone to Florida! Instead I went to Tucson, which i think was the most “mild” of the 5 sites we walked last Saturday.
Hope Springs from Field PAC is knocking on doors in Arizona and Florida, in-person voter contact in preparation for the 2024 elections. Both states have Senate races and as currently classified as competitive in the Electoral College. Having said that, we must acknowledge that Florida is not as important as Arizona, in terms of Senate races or the Electoral College.
Our core mission is protecting a Democratic Senate (and the Electoral College) and our core tactic is face-to-face voter contact through canvassing. The term most often associated with this approach is “Deep Organizing” but Early Organizing is equally appropriate. The model or system we have been using has been derivative of old Democratic machine tactics as well as the old (and apparently no longer used) system of 5 rounds (or touches) of voters by political campaigns. City Democratic machine precinct captains endeavored to knock on doors twice a year in off years and 4 times a year during an election year. So Democrats used to have a lot of face-to-face contact with voters; now many (probably most) precinct captains never knock on the doors of all the voters in their precincts.
Campaign field programs used to get their volunteers to knock on doors as well, and targeted areas could expect someone to show up at their door 5 times. Before voter databases became more computerized (and models more sophisticated), the first round was generally dedicated to list clean-up duty, making sure voters still lived where they lived in the last election cycle, registering new voters who might have moved in (or were now eligible to vote) and making them aware of government services, especially those things that fell under the candidate’s auspices. Neither of these two things are as typical in urban areas, and are virtually unknown in the areas that Hope Springs from Field targets: swingy areas that tend to be suburban and where new building is common. They tend to have more people moving in than urban areas and we often meet people who are yet to register at their new address. But these are the areas that are deciding elections in the 21st century.
We began knocking on doors again in Florida on March 4th and in Arizona on March 11th (cooler weather forced us to postpone canvass on the 4th), talking to voters, raising the Democratic banner and collecting data that will help Democratic candidates get voters to the polls in 2024. Like last weekend, the voters we talked to have yet to settle on any one specific thing or the next election. In Florida, we are knocking on doors in Osceola, Volusia and Duval counties. The “top” issue was different in all three counties — and the same was true in Arizona. Inflation is still a concern, Spring Break remains a topic, especially in Florida (perhaps in light of violence in South Florida. But overall, combining the 3 counties in Florida, Crime was the Top Issue last Saturday, increases in Gas and/or Grocery Prices was second and Disney was cited third most often (even though no one in Duval County mentioned if). In Arizona, we got a surprising amount of comments about Bank Failures over all (it was the Top Issue for the state), as well as Ballot Access (sorry, but I have never seen more voters mention Ballot Access on one of these canvasses than last weekend), which was Second among concerns express to our volunteers. I did have one voter mention the issue to me, but not in the context of her Top Issue in the country. I didn’t take notice, i’ve talked to voters at their doors before who fit the profile and we didn’t talk much about it. But the topic of Ballot Access for non-major party candidates is something at least the media is talking about there and it has seeped into the consciousness of the Democratic and unaffiliated voters we talk to through the Election Cycle. Border Issues or concerns was the third most talked about issue, and was expressed to me by two of the 11 voters i talked to on Saturday in Pima county.
83 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in Central Florida and in Jacksonville. In Arizona, in the western suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson, 88 volunteers came out. I haven’t pointed this out before, but even though Florida has a larger population it isn’t as concentrated as it is in Arizona and we have pretty consistently had more volunteers turning out in Arizona than Florida. This is even more interesting given that our alumni lists (until the website gets up (hopefully in April) we are still largely reliant on the Obama-related alumni email lists that organizers have retained) have more people on them in Florida than Arizona.
We knocked on 6,317 doors in Arizona and 5,723 doors in Florida last Saturday. Volunteers talked to 557 voters in Florida and 536 voters in Arizona. 328 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on our Issues Survey in Florida. 326 voters answered at least some in Arizona.
Biden Approval among the Floridians we talked to was at 70% last Saturday and 62% in Arizona. Remember that we are knocking on doors of Democrats or unaffiliated voters; we endeavor not to knock on any doors where all voters in the household are Republicans (and will ask for a specific voter when it is a mixed household). We only rarely talk to Republicans given how we cut turf (which i get to do again tomorrow!). But the voters we talked to were generally happy with the President at this time. We weren’t seeing ringing praise but we aren’t hearing disgust, either. On Saturday, 8% of the voters we talked to in Florida disapproved of the president. In Arizona, it was higher — 15%
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 4th in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured.
We canvass with an Issues Survey that is our jumping off point of conversations with voters. We find this is an easy way to begin the canvass season. All the data we collect will be entered into VAN, the Democratic database.
In Florida, Approval of Sen. Rick Scott was 7% among the voters we talked to on Saturday. Disapproval was 29%. In Arizona, Approval of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema was 18% while Disapproval was 31% among the voters who responded to the question. We also asked about voter approval of Rep. Ruben Gallego, the apparent Democratic nominee for the Senate in 2024. Approval of Gallego was 19% — and most of the voters we talked to didn’t know who Gallego was.
We asked about voter impressions of their Governors, as well. Of course, in Arizona, Gov. Hobbs was only recently elected but Gov. DeSantis has been on his book tour, preparing for his candidacy for the Republican nominee to be President. Ron DeSantis and the potential that the courts may overturn the Congressional maps in Florida are two of the reasons why Florida is included in our efforts this cycle.
Approval for DeSantis was 11% on Saturday and his Disapproval was 44% last Saturday. Approval of Gov Hobbs was 37%, up slightly from the weekend prior. Disapproval for Hobbs was only 8%.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods. In Florida, we had 27 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. In Arizona, 30 voters filled out CSRs. If possible, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has a hybrid approach. We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing. We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their intensive field work. Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns). After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.
As you can see from the very first question in the Issues Questionnaire, making sure that voters are registered from their current address is a major function of early canvassing. In Florida, given the current laws, we offer up a tablet with the Secretary of State website up so that voters can register or update their information themselves. Part of this is making sure that voters are registered in compliance to the new, confusing and frustrating Election law that is particularly onerous for people who change residences more frequently than normal. But registering new voters (and re-registering existing voters at their current address, in compliance with HAVA) at their door is also critical to our approach. Arizona has a much more friendly voter registration system, including the ability to opt in to permanent early voting. Of course, canvassing is the hard way to do voter registration, but we catch people that our voter registration campaigns can miss because of their emphasis on larger-scale or mass voter registration.
In Florida, though, the new law requires voters to provide, in addition to their date of birth, the last four digits of their Social Security number OR their driver license OR state ID card number to make an address change. Which is par for the course this year, but here’s the part that is likely to stump people who move around. You have to remember which one you provided, because you have to provide the same one every single time you interact with your local Supervisor of Elections, or your request won’t be granted. Supervisors of Elections won’t have access to other databases, so they can only "verify” a request by the information the voter has provided. But this is something we have learned to track so that if the voter registration was not successful, we can go back.
We registered 27 voters in Florida on Saturday, all but 6 re-registrations. in Arizona, we registered 31 voters (3 of which were first time registered).
We also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections. So far there haven’t been significant changes in the laws but we still ask about fears and experience vis-a-vis elections. Voters who say they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports. We found 2 voters who wanted to fill out Incident Reports in Florida and 3 voters in Arizona on Saturday. These are voters who witnessed some form of voter intimidation or malfeasance at the polls. We collate these Incident Reports, to be shared with local, state and federal officials in charge of voting, as well as use them to plan out our Election Protection strategy in the fall. They could also be used in court cases.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. That includes making sure that out-of-state workers at Disney know to, and how to, obtain a State ID card if they don’t want to give up their out-of-state DL but still want to vote in Florida. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
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