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Minnesota State House Districts (2024): HD 34A, HD 37A, HD 45A, HD 48A, HD 48B [1]

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Date: 2023-03-22

Today, I am looking at five more Minnesota state house districts: 34A, 37A, 45A, 48A, 48B, all of which are located in the western part of the Twin Cities metro area (greater Minneapolis – St. Paul).

Minnesota House District 34A

MN HD 34A is home to the community of Rogers. HD 34A had trended very heavily to the left under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from easily supporting Mitt Romney by about 18 points to supporting Donald Trump in 2016 by a little more than 10 points to narrowly supporting Joe Biden by a razor thin margin of less than 100 votes. However, despite the improvements for Dems at the presidential level, the recent state house races were not competitive, with Republican Kristin Robins winning the open seat by about 12 points in 2018 and being reelected by nearly 16 points in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made HD 34A slightly redder, as Trump would have carried the new district by just under 3 points. Specifically, the new district removed some Dem leaning area towards the southern end of the (old) district, including Robbins’s home in the community of Maple Grove. Unlike the previous house races, the 2022 state house race was moderately close, with Republican Danny Nadeau defeating Democrat Brian Raines by nearly 7 points. With regards to the 2022 statewide Dems, both Tim Walz (Governor) and Steve Simon (Secretary of State) narrowly carried the district, outperforming Raines and even Biden, while Julie Blaha (State Auditor) and Keith Ellison (Attorney General), did several points worse than Raines as they lost the seat by about 9 to 11 points. (Note that Blaha and Ellison barely won statewide). The Republicans should be favored to hold the district this cycle, especially considering that Nadeau will now have the advantage of incumbency, but the seat should be competitive, given the favorable trends for Dems and the overall increase in polarization. I’m classifying HD 34A as Lean Republican.

Minnesota House District 37A

MN HD 37A contains the communities of Medina and Independence. Like many other suburban districts in MN, HD 37A has moved heavily towards the Dems in recent years, with almost all (if not all) of the precincts experiencing double-digit or high single-digit swings to the left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020. HD 37A was close at the presidential level in 2020, with Trump carrying the seat by a little more than 2 points. However, the Republicans won the 2022 state house race fairly easily, with Kristin Robbins (who as discussed above had been representing HD 34A pre-2022) winning the seat by a little more than 12 points. At the statewide level in 2022, both Walz and Simon performed similar to Biden’s 2020 performance, narrowly losing the district by between 2 and 3 points, while Blaha and Ellison easily lost the seat by double-digit margins. Robbins should be fairly safe this cycle, considering her previous performances, but the seat is still worth keeping an eye on, given the recent competitive presidential and statewide results. I’m classifying HD 37A as Likely Republican.

Minnesota House District 45A

MN HD 45A is home to communities such as Orono, Mound, and Shorewood. HD 45A largely overlaps with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 33A and HD 33B, which have trended heavily towards the Dems, with both districts having swung by about 10 points to left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020. HD 33B had supported Biden by a fairly decent margin of between 9 and 10 points but was still highly competitive down-ballot, with Dems just narrowly winning the 2020 state house race by a percentage point. HD 33A supported Trump by a relatively narrow 6-point margin in 2020, but at the same time easily reelected its Republican incumbent by about 16 points. Not surprisingly, HD 45A is in-between HD 33A and HD 33B politically, with Biden narrowly carrying the seat by a percentage point. The 2022 state house race for HD 45A was somewhat competitive, with Republican Andrew Myers (who was also the 2020 GOP nominee for HD 33B) winning the open seat by about 6 points. Both Walz and Simon narrowly carried the district by between 1 and 2 points in 2022. Being a Biden-won seat, HD 45A should be a fairly decent pick-up opportunity for Dems, but I am still giving Myers the edge here this cycle, given his relatively decent performance and the district’s somewhat ancestral GOP nature (though this is starting to become less of an issue). I’m classifying the district as Lean Republican.

Minnesota House District 48A

MN HD 48A is home to the communities of Waconia and Victoria. HD 48 is a Republican-leaning district, with the eastern parts (located near Minneapolis) trending heavily to the left, and the more exurban western parts being more stagnant politically. The seat was somewhat competitive at the presidential level in 2020, having gone for Trump by about 8.5 points, while the 2022 state house race was not competitive at all, with Republican incumbent Jim Nash winning by over 19 points, though it doesn’t seem like the Dems seriously contested the seat at all as Democratic candidate Nathan Kells raised almost no money, according to the campaign finance data provided by Transparency USA. Out of the 2022 statewide Dems, Simon performed best here, losing the district by a little less than 8 points, followed by Walz, who lost the district by a little more than 9 points. The remaining statewide Dems, as well as Dems in overlapping State Senate and U.S. Congressional Districts, lost the seat handily, by margins similar to Kells. HD 48A should be fairly safe for the GOP, but the district still warrants notice, given that some of the presidential/statewide results have been competitive. I’m classifying HD 48A as Likely Republican (though I could see shifting the rating to “Safe Republican” if Dems fail to seriously contest the seat again).

Minnesota House District 48B

MN HD 48B is located directly south of the previously covered HD 45A and directly east of the previously covered 48A. HD 48B largely overlaps the pre-2022 iteration of HD 47B, which like many of the districts covered, moved heavily to the left in recent years, having gone from easily supporting Romney by about 14 points to just narrowly supporting Trump in 2016 by about 3 points to supporting Biden by 7.5 points. The 2018 and 2020 state house races (for HD 47B) were also very competitive, with Republican Greg Boe narrowly winning the open seat by half a percentage point in 2018 and being reelected by about 3 points in 2020. This contrasts with the previous Republican house incumbent, who easily won in 2016 by about 25 points. HD 48B is a few points bluer than HD 47B, with Biden carrying the former district by 11 points. In 2022, the Democrats were able to flip the seat, with Democrat Lucille Rehm narrowly defeating Boe by about 2 points, while Walz and Simon did several points better, as they carried the seat by between 9 and 10 points, though it should be noted that this is a few points worse than Biden (despite Walz and Simon not performing any worse than Biden statewide). While the 2022 state house race was very close, I’m giving Rehm the edge here this cycle, given that she will now have the advantage of incumbency (in contrast to 2022 when she was running against the incumbent) and that the fundamentals are favorable for Dems. I’m classifying HD 48B as Lean Democrat.

Thanks to Minnesota Secretary of State website (for the 2022 statewide results of the new districts), cnanalysis.com (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/22/2159604/-Minnesota-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-34A-HD-37A-HD-45A-HD-48A-HD-48B

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