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Arizona State Senate Districts (2024): SD 16, SD 17, SD 23, SD 27 [1]

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Date: 2023-03-16

Today, I am looking at the remaining four competitive Arizona senate districts: SD 16, SD 17, SD 23, and SD 27.

Arizona Senate District 16

AZ SD 16 is located in the southeastern part of the states and encompasses a large swarth of area, stretching all the way from Phoenix exurbs at the district’s northeastern end to Tucson exurbs and suburbs at the district’s southeastern end. Much of the district’s Dem base and favorable trends for Dems are in the Phoenix and Tucson centered parts of the seat, with the rural areas in-between heavily favoring Republicans. At the presidential level, the seat seems to be somewhat competitive, with Donald Trump carrying the seat by a fairly narrow margin of about 4 points. In the 2022 Governor’s race, Democrat Katie Hobs lost the seat by just under 4 points, performing similarly to Joe Biden, which contrasts with many of the more suburban seats, where she outperformed him by a few points. Dem Mark Kelly did manage to carry the district in the 2022 U.S. Senate race, as did Democrat Adrian Fontes in the 2022 Secretary of State race, with the former carrying the seat by about 1.5 points and the latter carrying it by a razor thin margin of less than 500 votes (about half a percentage point). Despite the close statewide results, the district wasn’t particularly competitive at the State Senate level in 2022, with Republican incumbent T.J. Shope winning by a fairly decent margin of between 11 and 12 points. However, it should be noted that the Dems might not have seriously invested in the seat, given that the Dem candidate Taylor Kerby raised less than $50K, in contrast to Shope, who raised over $200K, according to the campaign finance data provided by Transparency USA. Shope should be favored somewhat for 2024, but given the competitive statewide/pres results, it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, especially if the Democrats seriously contest the district. I’m classifying SD 16 as Lean Republican.

Arizona Senate District 17

AZ SD 17 covers much of Tucson’s northeastern suburbs and exurbs, such as Oro Valley. SD 17 seems to be heavily trending towards the Dems, with most of the precincts moving several points to the left between 2016 and 2020 at the presidential level. In 2020, Trump carried the district by a little more than 4 points. The 2022 elections showed further improvements for Dems here, with Hobbs very narrowly carrying the seat by under 300 votes (less than half a percentage point). In addition to Hobbs, Kelly and Fontes also won the district, with Kelly carrying it by about 5 points and Fontes carrying it by about 3.5 points. The 2022 State Senate election was also extremely competitive, with Republican Justine Wadsack winning the open seat by just over 2 points, not quite as strong a result as many of the statewide Dems, but still an improvement over Biden’s performance in the district. SD 17 should be a strong pick-up opportunity for Dems this cycle, given the favorable trends and close previous election results. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up.

Arizona Senate District 23

AZ SD 23 is located on the state’s southern border with Mexico and encompasses a large amount of area, stretching all the way from the California border at the district’s western end, to Phoenix exurbs on the district’s northern end, and to Tucson exurbs on the district’s eastern end. SD 23 is almost identical to the pre-2022 iteration of SD 4. SD 4 was a Dem leaning district that moved to the left between 2012 and 2016, having gone from supporting Barack Obama by a little more than 10 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by a larger margin of almost 19 points, but swung back to several points to the right in 2020, with Biden carrying it by nearly 13 points. (Biden’s margin was less than a percentage point higher in SD 23.) SD 23 swung a few more points to the right in 2022, with Hobbs carrying the seat by about 10.5 points, underperforming Biden by about three points, despite not doing any worse than he did statewide. The State Senate race was even closer, with Democrat Brian Fernandez winning the open seat by a little more than 7 points. In addition, it should be pointed out that the Republicans managed to win one of two coterminous house seats in 2022 as a result of using the “single-shot” method, which was also the case for SD 4 in 2020. (I wrote a prior piece on Daily Kos entitled “Multi-Member Districts” which describes the method in more detail.) As an incumbent this time around, Fernandez should be favored, but the seat should still be competitive. It should also be noted that the district is majority Hispanic, which may help explain the recent rightward shifts, and it’s unclear what the Hispanic turnout dynamic will be for 2024. I’m classifying SD 23 as Lean Democrat.

Arizona Senate District 27

AZ SD 27 encompasses northwestern suburbs of Phoenix in Maricopa County, such as Peoria. SD 27 is a Republican leaning district but has moved several points towards the Democrats in recent years. SD 27 largely overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of SD 20 and SD 21, which swung about 7 to 8 points to the left at the presidential level between 2016 and 2020. SD 27 was somewhat competitive in 2020, having supported Trump by just under 8 points. 2022 showed further improvements for Dems, with Hobbs losing the district by about 5 points, slightly outrunning Biden. Furthermore, Kelly came extremely close to carrying the district, as he lost the seat by under 400 votes (less than half a percentage point), and Fontes was actually able to very narrowly carry the district by less than a percentage point. However, the 2022 State Senate race was not particularly competitive, with Republican Anthony Kern, who previously served in the state house, winning the open seat by about 10 points, defeating Democrat Brittani Barraza. Note that Barraza seems to have been a last-minute candidate, as she won the Democratic primary as a write-in (no other Dems filed), so she might not have been able to raise enough money, which could at least partially explain her underperformance. The GOP should be favored here for 2024, but the seat definitely has the potential to be competitive, given the favorable trends for Dems. Note that Kern is an extreme election-denier, which should theoretically help Dems, though it didn’t seem to help them in 2022. I’m classifying SD 27 as Likely Republican, but I could see potentially shifting the seat to “Lean Republican” if the Dems nominate a strong candidate.

Thanks to Raghu Srinivasan (for the statewide/presidential results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/16/2158558/-Arizona-State-Senate-Districts-2024-SD-16-SD-17-SD-23-SD-27

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