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Another "Russia is running out of" diary: Russia may be Artillery rationing [1]

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Date: 2023-03-16

Artillery shell impact in a wheat field in Ukraine.

Yesterday I posted a diary on how Forbes is reporting that Russia may be running quite low on functional modern tanks, forcing it to deploy increasing numbers of refurbished old T-62 tanks (last of which came off the assembly line in 1975, and none of which have served with a front line Russian unit since 2008) to make up the difference. The T-62 has thinner armor, worse optics, and even refurbished is going to be a lesser opponent than the more modern T-72 that Russia is apparently running out of.

Other new reporting now is that Russia’s vaunted artillery is running dangerously low on ammunition. If you’ve followed the invasion coverage here on DKos, you know that a major tactic used by Russia has been to saturate an area with artillery fire for awhile, then send some infantry forward to see if they get shot at. If they do, fire up the artillery again, rinse and repeat. Eventually, maybe Russia manages to advance the lines a bit (as in dozens of meters).

Or they just indiscriminately blast cities and towns to create chaos and destruction and terror.

It seems that may be coming to an end.

A couple of months back, US intelligence reported that the Russians were in some cases firing artillery shells that had been manufactured in the 1980’s — and with age, those shells have an increased chance of failing, either being duds or just blowing up in the gun breech. In a healthy military, you wouldn’t want to be using such old ordnance if something better was available, so this was a sign of Russia’s logistics troubles.

Now UK intelligence has reported that Russia’s artillery shell supply issues are really coming home to roost, and that “extremely punitive shell-rationing is in force on many parts of the front.”

This report may explain the complaints of Wagner’s leader, Prigozhin, about the lack of ammunition being supplied to his forces. It may not be so much deliberate ploy to weaken Wagner (though that may well be a factor too), but simply a lack of ammunition, period.

This may also be a factor in Ukraine’s decision to continue to hold in Bakhmut. I’m sure Bakhmut is getting the lion’s share of whatever ammunition Russia has available, but it may be that Ukraine is counting on Russia’s artillery fire slacking off as supplies continue to dwindle.

Sources:

Russia Likely Rationing Shells Amid Ammunition Shortage

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/16/2158543/-Another-Russia-is-running-out-of-diary-Russia-may-be-Artillery-rationing

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