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Ukraine Update: It was the worst of times ... but only in one place [1]
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Date: 2023-03-15
The movement of Russian forces into what appears to be the AZOM metal plant in northern Bakhmut doesn’t just represent the capture of another building, no matter how symbolic. It also comes following a Russian breakthrough of the latest Ukrainian defensive line in the city, formed after Ukraine withdrew forces from the eastern side of Bakhmut and pulled back from the edges of the core city to form a stronger, better-defended line.
Now the fighting, in that area of Bakhmut at least, is of the ugliest block-by-block variety. There have been suggestions that Ukraine might pull back again to a new line, perhaps behind the arc of the railway line. But there’s little doubt that the images of Wagner forces inside the metal plant are disheartening for a number of reasons.
None of us here in armchair general territory are ever going to be called to answer the most basic and most important question: Has the prolonged defense of Bakhmut been worth it? We don’t know. We don’t know the real toll of Ukrainian losses (though the daily list of long-time commanders, fresh-faced volunteers, and ordinary soldiers lost in the city makes it clear this number is very high). We don’t know how keeping Russia at Bakhmut for as long as possible fits into the larger Ukrainian plan.
Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.
We may never know if Zelenskyy and his generals have made the right decisions in Bakhmut. There had been so many days when it seemed Ukraine might withdraw and end this chapter of the invasion. Okay, maybe not then, but now. Or surely now. Maybe that will happen today. Or maybe Ukraine will still be there in May, pinning Russia to this spot as newly trained troops roll forward in newly acquired Western tanks.
But this is another of those days when the idea of Ukraine’s sustained presence in Bakhmut doesn’t look good. Not only are Russian forces pressing into the north of the city, but they’re also pressing in west of the city, reportedly rendering the O0506 road of life through Khromove impassable. It’s unclear whether Ukraine can still communicate along the T0504 to the south, or if the whole city now depends on muddy tracks cut across farms that are rapidly becoming quagmires.
Perhaps most worrying of all is that while Ukraine struggles to defend the city, Russian forces are proceeding slowly to the northwest along the M03 highway. They’ve already moved about 1 kilometer beyond Bakhmut, have already cleared the line of hills west of the city, and are looking 20 km down the road to Slovyansk, which really is and always has been a strategic goal. Ukraine needs to stop that movement, and it’s not clear right now that it can both do this and continue to defend Bakhmut.
That doesn’t mean Ukraine isn’t still having victories in the area. In addition to taking out at least two BMPs on Wednesday morning, Ukrainian forces reportedly brought down a considerably bigger target.
x As it is said: downed Russian Su-24 in the Bakhmut area, by the forces of the 93rd brigade of Ukraine.
https://t.co/WObvW70r04 pic.twitter.com/W1IN8WEN0c — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 15, 2023
That was reportedly an Su-24, a tactical strike aircraft. If you were a fan of military aircraft back in the Cold War era, you might remember the Su-24 as the Russian version of the “swing wing bomber” (though it was never meant to be a strategic bomber) at a time when such designs represented the forefront of aviation design. In old NATO parlance, it’s known as “Fencer.” They’re damn fast for this type of aircraft, better than Mach 2, and on a typical sortie pack around four tons of precision-guided (or not) bombs. They can also serve as a platform for a variety of missiles.
The media—and that includes me—has been too quick to write Bakhmut off on many occasions. Maybe this is another one. But …
Is Ukraine running out of soldiers and optimism?
Before we leave the doom and gloom portion of the program, it seems mandatory to visit The Washington Post article that ran on Monday afternoon under the most depressing of headlines:
Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow
That article touches on an estimate that Ukraine may have suffered as many as 120,000 casualties over the course of the invasion, is running short on artillery, and is seeing the character of its army change as recruits with little experience replace veterans of the fighting in 2014. Every bit of that, including the grim statistics on casualties, is almost certainly accurate.
For months now, there has been a stream of statements in Telegram channels and other social media complaining that the front lines of Ukraine were starting to look like the front lines of Russia. That included claims that some Ukrainian troops ended up on the front lines after just five days of training. It’s unclear whether that last claim was ever true. However, it was obvious that Ukraine was losing large numbers of both officers and experienced soldiers. It took nothing more than watching the funerals in Lviv and Kyiv to see that.
That’s what it means to be in any prolonged war. Heroes die. And tweets like this one seem to come out of Bakhmut every day.
x The Ukrainian rugby champion Oleksandr Morev has been killed in battle against the Russian Army in Bakhmut.
He won the national championship in 2007 and also represented the national team as a junior.
Rest In Peace Oleksandr. Ukraine will never forget your sacrifice.
🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/eiLSTnzDAW — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 15, 2023
The gloomy assessment of the state of the Ukrainian army is not only making for reported doubts about the next chapter of the war, but it’s also setting up a cascade of blame for everyone involved.
An inability by Ukraine to execute a much-hyped counteroffensive would fuel new criticism that the United States and its European allies waited too long, until the force had already deteriorated, to deepen training programs and provide armored fighting vehicles, including Bradleys and Leopard battle tanks.
However, this article's downbeat headline and stomach-sinking opening ignore something that turns up a half-dozen paragraphs in.
The situation on the battlefield now may not reflect a full picture of Ukraine’s forces, because Kyiv is training troops for the coming counteroffensive separately and deliberately holding them back from current fighting, including the defense of Bakhmut, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid.
In fact, when Zelenskyy visited Bakhmut in December, he did so when Ukraine had reportedly rotated troops out of the area—not because that force had been diminished by months of fighting, but because those experienced forces were being sent back to recover and retrain on new equipment.
There’s no need to sugarcoat it: Ukraine’s inability to push Russia out of either Svatove or Kreminna is concerning, as is the slow advance of Russian forces around Bakhmut. It’s been some months since Ukraine managed a strategic win on the battlefield, and it’s only right that there be some concern that it’s Ukrainian and not Russian forces being leveled.
But it’s way too early to make that assessment. Russia has been on its big winter offensive for weeks now, pushing away at Ukraine with more than 100 assaults a day at locations from Kupyansk to Vulhedar. Except for fewer than 100 square kilometers around Bakhmut, that offensive has been utterly ineffective and the cost to Russia has been immense.
Ukraine’s time to throw a punch is coming. If it swings and misses, then there will be good reason for concern. But the force now fighting on the long front line is not all of Ukraine’s army. It’s not even the best of Ukraine’s army. And it’s doing pretty damn well, all things considered.
Russian forces made another attack on Vuhledar
Meanwhile, 100 km south and a world away from the dire warnings in Bakhmut, Russian forces on Tuesday made another run at Vuhledar. Looking at the pictures, you’d have a hard time distinguishing this from any previous run at Vuhledar.
x There has been increased influx of destroyed Russian armor coming in from the Vuhledar vicinity today. Apparently, Russians tried it again and the result can be seen. An utter disaster for the Russian invaders. That BTR-82a is scrap.#Vuhledar #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/cDjUoDiXZN — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 14, 2023
The Ukrainian ministry of defense has posted a tweet showing Russian losses across four attempted assaults on Vuhledar.
x Diary of a russian officer captured near Vuhledar.
March 1: 100 soldiers undertook an assault; 16 remained.
March 3: out of 116 soldiers 23 remained.
March 4: out of 103 soldiers 15 remained.
March 5: out of 115 soldiers 3 remained. pic.twitter.com/rbd4Xln6BG — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 14, 2023
Each of these attempts to take the town has resulted in losses between 80% and 98%. It’s hard to find levels of destruction that high in any modern battle. And by modern, in this case, I mean this side of Cannae.
Russia has apparently also had significant losses in repeated attacks near Kreminna. It’s easy to fret about what’s happening at Bakhmut, but it’s hard not to be impressed by how Ukrainians manage defensive positions along the rest of the line. And it’s not as if the people on the ground at Bakhmut are giving anything less than everything. Russia is simply throwing a lot of force at Bakhmut. The situation there is tough.
Another Kherson ‘gift’ seems very unlikely
On Tuesday night, Russia shelled several locations across the Dnipro River in the liberated areas of Kherson. That only seems to make the rumors circulating around Telegram and Twitter on Tuesday even more unlikely.
x ⚡️Southern Command: Russia's proxies in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast preparing to leave.
Moscow-installed proxies on Kherson Oblast's east bank are "taking away documentation and looted things," Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk said on March 14. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 14, 2023
Kherson is the only thing that stands between Ukraine and Crimea. It’s hard to see why Russia would do anything that would result in a new front line on the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the northern edge of Crimea. Giving up this area would put the water supply of Crimea back under Ukraine’s control.
Yes, Ukrainian precision attacks have forced Russia to move control of occupied Kherson far to the east. Yes, Russia’s need for forces in other areas may have pulled down the number of troops to defend the area. However, giving up the natural barrier along the river would only make the need to protect the western front harder.
Consider this highly unlikely. However, it is intriguing to wonder what Russian moves in the area may be signaling. Ukrainian sources may be taking the most optimistic view of simple troop rotations.
Not every drone strike is a kill
Social media is loaded with short video clips from kamikaze drones (and consumer FPV drones that have been converted into kamikaze drones) showing the cameras locking in on a target and a drone rushing forward until a tank, APC, or other piece of military hardware fills the screen. Video end.
x #Ukraine: A failed Lancet strike on a Ukrainian 2S1 Goździk (donated by Poland) near Avdiivka, #Donetsk Oblast. The loitering munition apparently hit the makeshift metal net cover which led to early detonation. pic.twitter.com/cUIPRjjCO9 — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 15, 2023
The implication is that the imaged bit of kit was destroyed, but that’s not always the case. Take this SPG, which was saved from a Russian Lancet drone with nothing more than some netting.
Maybe we’ve been sending the wrong supplies to Ukraine
x It's #NationalSheepDay. In 2017, a freighter loaded with 9,000 sheep sank the Russian spy ship Liman in the Black Sea when the two vessels collided in heavy fog. No sheep were harmed in the incident, and all Russian crewmen were rescued. pic.twitter.com/prcAHCLWEI — U.S. Naval Institute (@NavalInstitute) March 13, 2023
U.S. drone brought down by Russian jet
From U.S. European Command on Tuesday.
“At approximately 7:03 AM CET, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller an MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner.”
This doesn’t sound like an accident by any description. The Russian jet appears to have made repeated moves designed to interfere with the U.S. drone before wandering close enough to actually generate a collision. It’s hard to see repeated fuel dumps made onto the drone as anything less than an attack.
The MQ-9 “Reaper” is a large drone, with a 20-meter wingspan and a takeoff weight of over 4 tons. We’re not talking about a small consumer device here; we’re talking about a military craft that, in its latest version, cost $32 million—that’s actually more than the estimated cost of an Su-27.
Later in the day, U.S. officials appeared to be doing some heavy-duty trolling of Russian pilots.
x U.S. Defense Officials do not believe that the Russian Su-27 running into the MQ-9 Reaper over the Black Sea was meant to happen or any way Intentional; Air Force Officers after seeing the Video from the Drone stated that, “ The Russian Pilots appeared to be Amateurs.” pic.twitter.com/Ov17I6eEcD — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 14, 2023
Russian pilots are notoriously short on experience and don’t get training on dog fighting, but the reports of repeated attempts to spray the drone with fuel were clearly malicious. The final bump may not have been intentional. On the other hand, it may have been exactly what Russian officials were looking for since the Russian military has announced it will attempt to recover the fallen drone.
Russia has deliberately caused damage to a U.S. warplane over international waters, and while Russia keeps declaring that the U.S. is trying to treat this as “an act of provocation,” it seems very much like … an act of provocation.
What repercussions will result is still to be seen.
[END]
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