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Ukraine Invasion Day 383: Russian infighting [1]

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Date: 2023-03-12

Ukraine’s security services have concluded that the prisoner of war killed by Russian soldiers in a clip that spread quickly across Ukraine and much of the world is Oleksandr Igorevich Matsievskyi, bringing an end to the dispute over his identity.

The conflict between the Russian MoD and Wagner shows that different parties in Putin’s inner circle are competing with one another in potentially zero-sum games that do not further Putin’s overall objectives. The Russian MoD is currently prioritizing eliminating Wagner on the battlefields in Bakhmut, which is likely slowing down the rate of advance in the area. Prigozhin saw Bakhmut as an opportunity to gain leverage on the Russian MoD and likely in the Kremlin in pursuit of his own commercial and political aspirations. Putin used Wagner to protect his regime from detrimental societal ramifications of mobilization, which also continues to inhibit his war efforts in Ukraine. www.understandingwar.org/… Key inflections in ongoing military operations on March 12: Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on March 12 that ISW’s March 11 report about her comments acknowledging Kremlin infighting is false and an “informational attack.” [50] ISW used accounts from Russian media sources as well as a Russian milblogger (who claimed to be in attendance) to report on Zakharova’s comments in an altercation with information space entrepreneur Igor Ashmanov during a panel discussion in Moscow.[51] A milblogger who attended the event quoted Zakharova as saying that Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Russia’s internal information space due to infighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”[52] The milblogger did not comment on Zakharova’s denial on March 12 but amplified a social media post from another milblogger who claimed that the West (presumably ISW) misrepresented Zakharova’s statements.[53] The social media post, however, also blamed Zakharova and the Kremlin for failing to adopt stronger information space policies. Several other milbloggers confirmed that Ashmanov accused Kremlin organs of failing to create a trusted centralized information campaign but argued about how other attendees attempted to downplay his statements.[54] This milblogger discourse not only confirms that the incident occurred, but also that ultranationalist figures reiterated variants of ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin’s ability to control the Russian information space is diminishing.

Iranian State Media announced on March 11 that Iran has finalized a deal to buy Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia. [55]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. [56]

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement around the city. [57] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group fighters captured parts or all of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), although Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that Wagner fighters do not control the settlement. [58]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Avdiivka and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City. [59] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces entered Krasnohorivka (9km north of Avdiivka), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. [60]

A Russian milblogger claimed on March 12 that there is a high desertion rate among SPETSNAZ forces. [61] The Russian milblogger claimed that no SPETSNAZ units are at their full complement and that some SPETSNAZ commanders have fled their units despite having received generous salaries for the past ten years. [62] ISW has no independent confirmation of these assertions. It appears unlikely that most commanders have fled these elite units.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on March 12 that Russian military personnel from eastern regions of Russia die in Ukraine at per capita rates up to fortyfold of those of Russian personnel from Moscow City. [63] The UK MoD reported that Kazakh and Tartar minorities make up 75 percent of casualties among Russian military personnel from Astrakhan Oblast. [64]

Deputy Ukrainian Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated on March 12 that Russian officials have illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia.[65] Vereshchuk also stated that the total number of children deported to Russia may be approximately 150,000.[66] www.understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 12



No additions from Oryx's @Rebel44CZ today



VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

3.13x losses to date ➡

2.74x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡

3.35x 30-day average ⬇



📈 https://t.co/ldIi2dmjaZ pic.twitter.com/yZtuTt1eR7 — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) March 12, 2023

Deployment Map: militaryland.net/…

The conflict between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely reached its climax against the backdrop of the Battle of Bakhmut. The Russian MoD – specifically Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff General Valery Gerasimov – is likely seizing the opportunity to deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin. The Russian MoD had been increasingly restricting Prigozhin’s ability to recruit convicts and secure ammunition, forcing Prigozhin to publicly recognize his dependency on the Russian MoD. Prigozhin, for example, publicly complained that he mailed a letter and tried to send his representative – likely to Shoigu and Gerasimov – with an urgent demand for ammunition, but that the representative was not allowed to present his complaints.[1] Prigozhin had been able to grow his forces by 40,000 convicts likely with the Kremlin’s permission to recruit in prisons in 2022 but lost that permission and access to that manpower pool at the beginning of 2023.[2] Prigozhin has threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut and insinuated that the Russian MoD used Wagner to bear the brunt of the high-intensity attritional urban warfare to seize Bakhmut in order to conserve Russian conventional forces.[3] These threats and complaints indicate that Prigozhin is aware of the gravity of his conflict with the Russian MoD. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Ukraine and Russia have reported inflicting heavy losses as the battle for Bakhmut rages on. Moscow has been trying to take the eastern Ukrainian city for months in a grinding war of attrition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces had suffered more than 1,100 deaths in the past few days, with many more seriously injured. Russia said it had killed more than 220 Ukrainian service members over the past 24 hours. www.bbc.com/… www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...

x Luxembourg has decided to donate 14 Armored Ambulances to Ukraine; these Ambulances will allow the Ukrainian Military to quickly and safely transport Injured Personnel from the Eastern Front to Medical Centers further West. pic.twitter.com/2UT01p1dS2 — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 12, 2023

x If Misha dies in detention, Putin gets two things he wants: Misha dead, and the door to the west closed in Georgia’s face for the foreseeable future



Love him or hate him, Misha helped create the possible Western future for Georgia, and saving him is necessary to keep it open https://t.co/H7IFEBYPwB — Molly McKew (@MollyMcKew) March 12, 2023

x ⚡️Members of the underground movement "Atesh" blew up the railway between the villages of Radensk and Abrikosovka in the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region.



👉 @Flash_news_ua pic.twitter.com/KUjYZpPvyn — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) March 12, 2023

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/12/2157667/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-383-Russian-infighting

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