(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Trump's '24 success depends on his swift dominance of the GOP field. This poll augurs trouble ahead [1]
['Daily Kos Staff', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']
Date: 2023-03-11
Seth Masket, a professor of political science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, decided to survey some 3,000 Republican Party county chairs across the country to gauge their loyalties thus far. County chairs are an interesting measure because, to some extent, they serve as a proxy for the grassroots. They're very involved at the local level, show up to events, vote in primaries, and certainly wield influence among their peers. But they're also a rung down from the more powerful national and state-level players.
The survey response rate, 187 county chairs, was smaller than Masket had hoped for, but it was still enough to statistically analyze, and the results suggested Trump might be weaker at the grassroots level than is generally assumed.
Masket asked three illuminating questions.
First, had they already settled on a candidate? Roughly half said they were still uncommitted, 19% said they were backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and 17% were with Trump.
As Masket noted, "The fact that Trump is not the first choice of this group and that fewer than one in five county chairs is committed to him suggests some considerable reservations."
Second, Masket sought to gauge a more basic level of candidate interest, asking who the chairs were considering supporting by naming as many candidates as piqued their interest. DeSantis generated by far the most curiosity, with 73% of the chairs giving him consideration, while just 43% said they were considering supporting Trump.
Trump finished just a cut above former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was named by 36% of the chairs, while 28% mentioned Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina. But the mere notion that Trump was in league with Haley is kind of a yikes moment for Trump.
Finally, Masket asked which candidate the chairs absolutely did not want to win the 2024 GOP nomination.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie got top billing there at 55%, followed by Don Jr. (51%), Mike Pence (43%), Trump (39%). Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson rounded out the top five at 35%. DeSantis came in at just 9%.
So while 40% of the county chairs have effectively written off Trump, just 10% said the same of DeSantis, which gives him a lot of room to grow his support.
The worst news here for Trump isn't just that he personally appears to be starting off with some big handicaps: It's also that DeSantis, in every case, is his most obvious competitor. In other words, if Trump's chances depend on a splintering of support, DeSantis appears to stand a chance of disrupting that calculus.
Anyone who says they know who's going to be the GOP nominee at this nascent stage of the race is full of it. The two most plausible scenarios are that DeSantis doesn't live up to the hype and Trump simply chews him up, spits him out, and reclaims the nomination. Because at least for now, if DeSantis fails, no one else appears to have the base of support necessary to challenge Trump.
But the other scenario is that Trump doesn't dominate out of the gate. Perhaps he has some second-place finishes to DeSantis, loses Florida to him, and then starts to appear vulnerable. That would be a death blow to Trump. A big part of his mystique is the perception of invincibility. Once that starts to unravel, one could imagine Republican voters flocking to DeSantis.
Of course, a million other things could happen. Trump could be running a campaign from jail—that’s not out of the realm of possibility.
But for now, one basic observation seems to be true: The longer the nominating process goes on, the worse it is for Trump. Any perceived weakness at the outset of the contest could be the beginning of the end for him.
Trump needs to demonstrate more of a shock-and-awe dominance over the field—and especially DeSantis—or we just might have the chance to figure out what slice of the GOP electorate is actually willing to defect with him.
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/11/2157392/-Trump-s-24-success-depends-on-his-swift-dominance-of-the-GOP-field-This-poll-augurs-trouble-ahead
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
