(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Two warnings on Georgia [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']
Date: 2023-03-09
I’ve seen it before.
Young protester shouts at the riot police dispersing the demonstration in Tbilisi, Georgia, March 2023.
Can you sense what’s coming next?
Protesters outside Parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia in March 2023.
Like the ache of old scar tissue following the barometer ...
Protesters remove barrier constructions outside the parliament building during a rally against the "foreign agents" law in Tbilisi, Georgia, March 8, 2023.
I can feel it coming.
Protesters outside parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia.
Any moment now:
“Why are the liberals suddenly supporting protests in other countries? How is this any different than the patriots who stormed the Capitol?”
Freedumb
It’s going to happen. I’d be surprised that it hasn’t already begun to percolate amongst the shitbaggery.
But there’s something that you can do about it. Consider this your ‘talking points memo’. Like it or not, that’s how messaging works. While we individuals may not have a voice that reaches millions we can be ready to push back in small ways everywhere.
Georgian citizens are fighting back against attempts to turn their nation into a Russian puppet state. And you — all of you — were bamboozled by a shameless con artist into fighting to become one.
That’s one thing that you can be prepared for. But we can also expect conspiracy theories any minute now. They will soon be braying and harping on about Victoria Nuland and Hunter Biden ginning up a coup d’état in Georgia. You can count on it.
I can feel it in my bones.
This rather unfortunate message from the State Department didn’t help matters.
x ❗️ Breaking 🔥:
Those responsible for cracking down on protests in #Georgia could be subject to US sanctions: State Dept spokesman Ned Price
“We have a range of tools to hold anyone in any country accountable for interfering with what is a universal human right”: Price#Tblisi pic.twitter.com/3ybIyyhgbw — OsintTV📺 (@OsintTV) March 7, 2023
Sure, it’s all well and good to support democracy, but this threat went out far too soon for my liking. It was ill-conceived to put that out right off the mark. Make no mistake: people around the world are becoming fed up with threats like this from Americans. To say that is not to diminish the intent but to admonish the execution.
But that’ a sideshow. The point of this first warning is that the whataboutism is surely already on the march.
And it won’t be limited to discussion about Georgia. No, this will become a fresh angle in the attack on the defense of democracy and order that comprises the denial efforts with respect to January 6. Just watch as they hold up support for Georgians as some kind of liberal hypocrisy. The dread machinations of the Biden crime family and the Deep State.
The second warning is a bit more obscure. Although i acknowledge that it is, i have little doubt that it has already been briefed to President Biden. And it stands despite the apparent backtracking by the government in Tibilisi. This is a warning that ought stand for the foreseeable future — for at least as long as Russian aggression in Ukraine continues.
Should the situation in Georgia deteriorate to a great degree there is a non-trivial possibility that the Russians will move on Tbilisi. Not simply to take advantage of the uprising to seize that nation but to use a Russian incursion there as a weapon against the West.
Many of you will dismiss that out of hand — just as so many discounted the warning signs that the Russians really were going to invade Ukraine a year ago. Of course, things are a lot different now, with the shambolic Russian forces virtually stalled in the Ukraine countryside. But don’t be deceived.
It wouldn’t be such an insurmountable objective, despite their pathetic performance over this past year. They wouldn’t have to send 200,000 troops into Georgia to have the desired effect. They could send in just enough reinforcements — including plenty of FSB stormtroopers — to prop up the Georgian Dream party and overthrow President Salome Zourabichvili.
Putin will not fail to discern the opportunity in this otherwise grim new development. An invasion of Georgia, or even just an ugly civil war with plenty of very obvious direct Russian involvement, would not fail to become a source of heartburn in the rest of Europe. And the Russians would milk it for all it was worth. Just imagine the taunting: “Why aren’t you pouring military aid into Georgia? Where is NATO? The pretenses of the West are laid bare.”
They would say this because it would be painfully obvious that rushing military aid to Georgia would not go off anywhere nearly as well as it did for Ukraine. And we know that it has been a huge effort to make happen thus far. A similar — simultaneous — effort in Georgia would not only be tremendously difficult logistically but politically. Western governments would find themselves in a bind, both because the cupboards are running empty but also that the exhortations against muddling into a wider war would come into sharper relief.
I don’t think that i really need spell all that out for you. It seems clear to me how all of that would play out, both in Europe and in the US.
This isn’t a warning for what will surely come next, but about what might conceivably follow from current events. Do not count out the Russians for doubling down yet again. They are in a serious hole but by no means finished. Continuing to double down, especially where psychological operations against the West are concerned, should be expected from them for a while yet.
Update:
Putin might be encouraged to do this because the West, even recently, has continued to 'meddle' in his near abroad. He doesn’t like that.
Russia's 2008 military invasion of Georgia: Joint statement to the OSCE 2 September 2022 Norwegian Ambassador Karlsen delivers a statement on behalf of OSCE's Group of Friends of Georgia, marking 14 years since Russia's invasion of Georgia. This statement is delivered on behalf of Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. We reaffirm our full support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. Fourteen years since the Russian Federation’s military invasion of Georgia, we remain deeply concerned over the continued occupation of parts of the territory of Georgia and underline the need for the peaceful resolution of the conflict based on full respect for international law and commitments, including the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act.
I can well imagine him saying, "Oh, yeah? Watch this, then." It would be very much in character for him to take advantage of unrest in Georgia to open a new front in his war on liberal democracy. Because a new front it very well would be. Even if there were weapons enough to go around the donor nations would almost certainly struggle with domestic reservations about where this was all headed. Reservations, of course, prodded by the Putin apologists who reside amongst us all.
Georgia is not entirely defenseless, although they’d likely struggle against a renewed Russian onslaught. Yes, Putin still has plenty of firepower at his disposal. And, again, he wouldn’t need to pour in hundreds of thousands of his forces to cause major trouble in that country.
I know less about recent military aid to Georgia than i did about Ukraine before last year. They'd been somewhat helped before 2008 with anti-tank weapons and other modern Western gear. But the fight lasted just a few days, their capitulation no doubt helped by the absence of some 2000 troops who were 'keeping the peace' in Iraq at the time. (Surely, not a surprise to the Russian planners.)
For those who don't remember the 2008 invasion of Georgia, here are a few sources looking back on it after plenty of time to assess.
The August War, Ten Years On: A Retrospective on the Russo-Georgian War Michael Kofman, War on the Rocks, 17 August 2018 The Russo-Georgian War, the August War, or for some simply the “five-day war,” was an important departure point in U.S.-Russian relations, and in European security. Although few understood it at the time, this war heralded an important transition in international politics. This brief conflict presaged the return of great-power politics and the end of the post-Cold War period. In 2008, Moscow demonstrated the will and ability to actively contest the U.S. vision for European security, veto NATO expansion in its neighborhood, and challenge Washington’s design for a normative international order where small states can determine their own affairs independent of the interests of great powers. Simply put, the historical significance of the Russo-Georgian War has been underrated.
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/9/2157159/-Two-warnings-on-Georgia
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
