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Daily Bucket: Weather weirding leads to phenological peculiarity this winter [1]

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Date: 2023-03-09

Status of spring

x A neat graphic from @USANPN shows just how fast spring vegetation is advancing thanks to our warm February. According to their Spring Leaf Index Anomaly, we are greater than 20 days early with some parts of our region seeing the earliest spring on record!https://t.co/jYLyICQSM1 pic.twitter.com/wKS8lHhLZw — NWS Charleston, WV (@NWSCharlestonWV) February 28, 2023

More than 130 cities from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes could set new records for daily and monthly high temperatures this week. Highs will climb up to 80 degrees as far north as Ohio and West Virginia — certainly unusual, but becoming less so in the warming climate. Here’s a stark example: Before this decade, Charleston, West Virginia, had only hit 80 degrees before March three times in more than 100 years of record-keeping. But this week’s incredible warmth will mean that four of the last six years will have logged temperatures of 80 degrees, which is its normal high on June 1, in February. [...] Great Lakes ice is on a downward trend, NOAA scientists report. A recent study found a 70% decline in the lakes’ ice cover between 1973 and 2017. The decline in Great Lakes ice each winter may not seem like it has any harmful impact, but that ice acts as a buffer for large, wind-driven waves in the winter, scientists have reported. Without the ice, the coastlines are more susceptible to erosion and flooding.

x "According to the USA NPN (National Phenology Network) The pollen season started about 3 weeks early and will produce higher pollen rates than it used to (like 42% more). I am sure most of you have been feeling it for a while."

A message from my allergist, and yes I know. — Wisty (@SimplyWisty) March 8, 2023

x Status of Spring update: Spring leaf out continues north. Indianapolis & Philadelphia are 20 days ahead of normal (period of 1991-2020). The map shows how often we see a spring like this. Dark green is earliest on record, dark green latest. Follow spring: https://t.co/IBXIxQmQiw pic.twitter.com/cqkuXnKqRE — USA National Phenology Network (@USANPN) March 6, 2023

Spring came late to the Sonoran Desert

Parts of Arizona are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple splotch on the above map).

x Signs of spring here in the Sonoran Desert...my ocotillo has teeny leaves! #phenology pic.twitter.com/o9Co2sEirb — Theresa Crimmins (@TheresaCrimmins) March 4, 2023

Some of the U.S. has near-record-setting early spring

x Spring officially begins in 12 days! 🌸☀️



However, parts of the SE, lower Midwest, Plains & mid-Atlantic are seeing either the earliest spring on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years w/early blooms.



Info/graphics from the USA - National Phenology Network pic.twitter.com/pDHF0p6Nrq — Cassie Nall (@CassieNall_Wx) March 8, 2023

x The very early start to spring in the south & eastern US is reflected in #phenology reports coming in to @USANPN. So far, observers have reported many events earlier this year than in any other year since 2009 (when NN launched). What are you seeing where you are? pic.twitter.com/WyfGiTU16C — Theresa Crimmins (@TheresaCrimmins) March 1, 2023

North Carolina

x In NC, we are experiencing a similarly early spring!



May have to start our #BugsOnBranches surveys early this year. #phenology 🐛🐞🦗🕷️🪲 https://t.co/UXUjoCGgtK — Caterpillars Count! (@CaterpillarsCt) March 6, 2023

It’s impossible not to be terrified about all this. I worry that winter will come roaring back to blast all these flowers and all these baby birds. I worry that this early spring is the harbinger of a brutal and everlasting summer. I worry most that careless human beings continue to be so careless and that profit-mad corporations continue to be so mad. For the life of me, I cannot understand the politicians who keep behaving as though what is happening to the climate isn’t an existential threat. But I also can’t help delighting in these tiny flowers reaching for the sun, and I make no effort to beat back my pleasure in this season of beginnings. I surrender to the thrumming promise in the springtime air.

Washington D.C.

x Just in: Cherry blossoms have already hit stage 3 -- extension of florets -- second earliest on record. Cooler weather should slow things down but our peak bloom forecast of March 25-29 may need to be adjusted earlier. https://t.co/ug0RM5F5nj — Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) March 7, 2023

New York City

After a snowless winter, the first real snowfall in NYC coincided with cherry blossoms.

x It may be snowing but cherry blossoms are already in bloom in Brooklyn! 🌸 pic.twitter.com/pUAFyy9yvD — Rebecca Greenberg (@RebeccaGNews) February 28, 2023

Indiana

x Giant ragweed emergence in Central Indiana. 17 days ahead of 14-year average, and 2nd earliest observation in those 14 years. Only 2017, March 5, was earlier #spring #weeds #plant23 #phenology pic.twitter.com/zRvybFDWhM — OTT Eric Ott (@EricOtt19) March 6, 2023

Wyoming is bearly on schedule

The first Yellowstone grizzly bear was observed to emerge from hibernation this year on the same date as last year, March 7th.

x (News Release) On Tuesday, March 7, a Yellowstone National Park wildlife biologist on a radio telemetry flight observed the first grizzly bear of 2023 to emerge from hibernation. Learn more: https://t.co/a8Njlt8geD pic.twitter.com/0qZWMKiouo — Yellowstone National Park (@YellowstoneNPS) March 7, 2023

Mexico’s monarch migration is on schedule

x While the western monarch population is still in place kept by turbulent weather, the eastern monarch population is on the move. ➡️ https://t.co/1wpWlfGcZq

📸 📸 Estela Romero 📸 📸 Diana Magor pic.twitter.com/eayPCsiRen — Journey North (@journeynorthorg) February 28, 2023

x Spring migration is underway! Ms. Romero reports ~ 75% of the monarchs have departed the sanctuaries in Mexico. Ms. Morris writes monarchs show signs of activity. ➡️ https://t.co/wxCZR7UKut 📸 Marylou, Pismo Beach, CA 📸 Kathy, Montgomery pic.twitter.com/UE1yZ8Waj5 — Journey North (@journeynorthorg) March 7, 2023

In California, monarchs are still avoiding wind, rain, and snow

x Western Monarch New Years Count data reveals a 58% seasonal decrease in the overwintering western monarch population. While numbers typically decrease between Thanksgiving & New Years for various reasons, 58% is higher than trends in recent years. https://t.co/SFC83TJVjS — The Xerces Society (@xercessociety) March 2, 2023

In California, late fall and winter has been wet—rain rain rain in the lowlands and snow snow snow in the foothills and mountains, snow also fell on beaches. We don’t get snowy beaches, have you seen photos of snow on the beach dunes? No. It happens although rarely snow falls without sticking longer than a moment. But now it does.

x California in October 2022 versus March 2023.



From being entrenched in a multi-year extreme drought to having one of the deepest snowpacks on planet Earth. pic.twitter.com/OyEFcNxMxP — Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) March 3, 2023

x Here’s snow on the beach yesterday morning in Santa Cruz! pic.twitter.com/9OtmLj7s5o — oneofthegoodkarens (@mattresstagging) February 25, 2023

Outside my home in the Sacramento Valley (north end of Central Valley), the almond trees bloomed in early Feb, a couple weeks ahead of normal, while the peach tree in my yard has just started to open flower buds, over a week later than usual. For first-hand California snow reports, check out funningforest’s photo story from 3,342 feet elevation in the northern Sierra, The Daily Bucket. Snow's all I got, s'know what I mean? More snow from Quincy, CA, and TheProgressiveAlien’s snowed-in story from 4,613 feet in the San Bernardino Mountains outside Los Angeles: Snowmageddon, The Snowpocalypse, Holy Heck, We're Snowed In.

The Carson Pass (CA-88) elevation 8,652 near Tahoe, shown in the photo below, has even more snow right now and more coming.

x My cousin sent me this picture going up to Tahoe from Reno. In my entire life, I have never seen this in Reno. It’s just a big Wow. #snow #slammed #crazy pic.twitter.com/4tUo7QWAgJ — Jennifer Harman (@REALJenHarman) March 3, 2023

All this snow would be a big help in mitigating drought and summer wildfire risks if the snow persisted, melting slowly until late spring/early summer as was once normal. Instead, we may be facing floods again soon as a Pineapple Express type of atmospheric river begins Thursday and snow levels rise to 6,000 feet. How much snow will melt and runoff downslope is uncertain before the snow level drops back lower in the next storm.

So, partial melt, rain, then freezing again? In a winter of weird weather in California, is the next weirdness deep snow encrusted with ice?

x A storm arriving Thursday will bring a threat of flooding from a combination of heavy rain and snowmelt to lower elevations and foothills in California, especially below 5000 feet. And heavy, wet snow at higher elevations will lead to difficult travel and impacts from snow load. pic.twitter.com/TMlr8Ev0tA — NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) March 8, 2023

x Snow levels will fluctuate a bit over the next several days, starting off around 4000-5000 ft Thursday but quickly rising by early Friday, and then lowering again over the weekend. Stay tuned with us here on social media or at https://t.co/WjKBsJmSfA for forecast updates! #CAwx pic.twitter.com/QUCbjdG3t5 — NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) March 8, 2023

THE DAILY BUCKET IS A NATURE REFUGE. WE AMICABLY DISCUSS ANIMALS, WEATHER, CLIMATE, SOIL, PLANTS, WATERS AND NOTE LIFE’S PATTERNS.

WE INVITE YOU TO NOTE WHAT YOU ARE SEEING AROUND YOU IN YOUR OWN PART OF THE WORLD, AND TO SHARE YOUR OBSERVATIONS IN THE COMMENTS BELOW.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE PURPOSE AND HISTORY OF THE DAILY BUCKET FEATURE, CHECK OUT THIS DIARY: DAILY BUCKET PHENOLOGY: 11 YEARS OF RECORDING EARTH'S VITAL SIGNS IN OUR NEIGHBORHOODS

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