(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Pennsylvania State Senate Districts (2024): SD 5, SD 9, SD 11, SD 13, SD 31 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2023-03-07

Today, I am looking at the remaining five potentially competitive Pennsylvania senate districts: SD 5, SD 9, SD 11, SD 13, and SD 31. The former three districts are in the southeastern part of the state, while the latter two districts are in the southcentral part of the state. All these districts are Dem held, except for SD 31, which is Republican held.

Pennsylvania Senate District 5

PA SD 5 is located in northeastern Philadelphia. Under the pre-2024 boundaries, SD 5 has been a Democratic leaning district that seems to be trending red, at least at the presidential level, having gone from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 by a large margin of almost 27 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by a narrower 15-point margin in 2016. The district swung even further to the right in 2020, with Joe Biden carrying it by an even narrower margin of just under 10 points, despite the fact that he outperformed Clinton statewide. The State Senate races have generally not been competitive, with Democrat John Sabatina Jr. easily winning reelection by over 33 points in 2016 and running unopposed in 2020. (Note that the 2022 special election, held as a result of Sabatina taking a position on the Philadelphia County Court, was closer, with Democrat Jimmy Dillon winning by about 13 points, performing in-between Clinton and Biden. SD 5 has become a few points redder under the 2024 boundaries, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 6.5 points. SD 5 should be competitive this cycle, given the favorable trends for the GOP and the new district being slightly more Republican leaning, but the Democrats should still be favored somewhat. I’m classifying SD 5 as Lean Democrat.

Pennsylvania Senate District 9

PA SD 9 is based in Delaware and Chester Counties, just southwest of Philly. At the presidential level, SD 9 has been a fairly blue district under the pre-2024 boundaries, with Clinton carrying the seat by about 13.5 points and Biden carrying it by nearly 19 points. However, the district has been friendlier to the GOP down-ballot, with Republican incumbent Thomas Killion narrowly winning reelection here in 2016 by just under 3 points. The Democrats were able to flip the seat in 2020, though the senate race was reasonably close (unlike Biden’s performance), with Dem John Kane defeating Killion by a 4-point margin. For 2024, SD 9 has not been radically altered, with Biden’s margin remaining roughly unchanged. Kane should be heavily favored here this cycle, given that he now has the advantage of incumbency and the overall increase in polarization, but the seat is still worth keeping an eye on, considering the ancestral GOP nature of the district. I’m classifying SD 9 as Likely Democrat.

Pennsylvania Senate District 11

PA SD 11 is home to the city of Reading and other nearby communities. Under the pre-2024 boundaries, SD 11 has been a competitive district (at least at presidential level) and seems to be trending a bit to the right, with both Clinton and Biden narrowly carrying it by between 2 and 3 points, in contrast to Obama who carried it by 10.5 points in 2012. However, despite Biden’s close margin, Democrat incumbent Judy Schwank easily won here in 2020 by nearly 17 points, though it’s quite likely that the Republicans didn’t seriously contest the seat. (Note that Schwank ran unopposed in 2016.) SD 11 has become several points bluer under the 2024 boundaries, with the new district removing much of the rural parts of the old seat, while adding in more suburban areas southwest of Reading. In particular, Biden’s margin increases to just under 8 points under the new boundaries. Schwank should be fairly safe for 2024, especially considering that she has easily won in a less favorable district, but the seat does have the potential to be competitive if the Republicans run a strong candidate. I’m classifying SD 11 as Likely Democrat.

Pennsylvania Senate District 13

PA SD 13 encompasses the city of Lancaster. SD 13 has been a moderately Republican leaning district under the pre-2024 boundaries, having supported Donald Trump by just over 6 points in 2016 and by a slightly narrower margin of just under 5 points in 2020. The district was less competitive at the State Senate level in 2020, with Republican incumbent Scott Martin winning by about 11 points, after having won by a larger margin of almost 16 points in 2016, when the seat was open. SD 13 has become redder under the 2024 boundaries, with the seat expanding into rural areas to the northeast. In particular, Trump’s 2020 margin increases to nearly 12 points under the new boundaries. With a more favorable district, Martin should be fairly safe this cycle, but the district may have the potential to be competitive if Democrats end up having a really strong night. I’m classifying SD 13 as Likely Republican.

Pennsylvania Senate District 31

PA SD 31 is located southwest of Harrisburg and contains communities such as Lower Allen and Franklintown. SD 31 has generally been reliably red but is trending fairly heavily towards the Dems, having gone from supporting Trump by about 21 points in 2016 to supporting him by a narrower 13-point margin in 2020 under the pre-2024 boundaries. Republican incumbent Mike Regan was easily reelected here by about 21 points in 2020 after having won the seat by an even larger margin of 36 points in 2016 when it was open. (Note that there was a third-party candidate on the ballot in 2016 who got nearly 7% of the vote.) For 2024, the district’s boundaries have been altered a good deal, though the partisan lean has remained relatively unchanged, with Trump’s 2020 margin increasing by less than half a percentage point to about 13.5 points under the new boundaries. The GOP should be fairly safe this cycle, but the seat still warrants notice, given the promising trends for Democrats. I’m classifying SD 31 as Likely Republican.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of both the new and old districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the remaining statewide/presidential results of the old districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/7/2156694/-Pennsylvania-State-Senate-Districts-2024-SD-5-SD-9-SD-11-SD-13-SD-31

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/

You are viewing proxied material from magical.fish. The copyright of proxied material belongs to its original authors. Any comments or complaints in relation to proxied material should be directed to the original authors of the content concerned. Please see the disclaimer for more details.