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Pennsylvania State Senate Districts (2024): SD 45, SD 37, SD 15, SD 49 [1]

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Date: 2023-03-07

Continuing with my state legislative series, I thought it would be interesting to look at the Pennsylvania State Senate. Currently, the balance of a chamber is 28R – 22D, meaning that the Democrats need a net gain of at least three seats for control of the chamber. (A net gain of exactly three seats would produce a tied chamber, giving the Dems control, as Lieutenant Governor Democrat Austin Davis serves as tiebreaker). Note that the PA senate has staggered terms, with half of the chamber on the ballot every two years, meaning that this election, 2024, will be the first time that the new (post-redistricting) boundaries will be used for these seats, as these seats were last up in 2020. Also, unlike in VA and some other states, the PA election results for the old districts are fairly useful here, as the district numbers on the new map roughly correspond to the district numbers on the old map, with the boundaries generally not having been drastically altered. I should also note that I currently don’t have any election results for the new districts, apart from the 2020 presidential results. Given that the 2024 election is over a year away, these ratings are especially preliminary. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection.

Today, I am going to be looking at four districts: SD 45, SD 37, SD 15, and SD 49. All these districts are Republican held, except for SD 45, which is Dem held.

Pennsylvania Senate District 45

PA SD 45 encompasses some of Pittsburgh’s eastern suburbs, such as Monroeville and McKeesport. Under the pre-2024 boundaries, SD 45 has been a very competitive district at the presidential level, with Donald Trump very narrowly carrying the seat by less than a percentage point in 2016 and Joe Biden carrying it by about 2 points four years later. The district also had a very close senate race in 2020, with Democrat incumbent Jim Brewster just barely winning reelection by less than 100 votes. (Note that the Republicans did not contest the seat in 2016.) However, under the new 2024 boundaries, SD 45 has become several points bluer, with Biden’s margin increasing to a little more than 7 points. In particular, the new district removes much of the solidly Republican areas contained in the northeastern part of the old district, such as the community of New Kensington. The district should be competitive this cycle, considering the close 2020 results, but Brewster should have an edge, given the more favorable boundaries. I’m classifying SD 45 as Lean Democrat.

Pennsylvania Senate District 37

PA SD 37 contains Pittsburgh’s western suburbs, such a Moon Township and Bethel Park. SD 37 has been trending heavily towards the Democrats under the pre-2024 boundaries, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney in 2012 by a fairly large 12-point margin to supporting Trump in 2016 by a narrower margin of just under 6 points to supporting Biden by about a percentage point. Republican incumbent Guy Reschenthaler was easily reelected here in 2016 by over 20 points, but Dem Pam Iovino was able to flip the seat, winning by 4 points, in a 2019 special election, which was held because Reschenthaler resigned to become a member of U.S. Congress. However, the seat flipped back to the GOP in 2020, with Republican Devlin Robinson defeating Iovino by a margin of just over 4 points, despite Biden narrowly carrying the district. The 2024 boundaries have made the district slightly redder, with the new district removing the highly Dem leaning community of Mt. Lebanon, among other changes. In particular, the district would have narrowly supported Trump by about a percentage point under the new boundaries. SD 37 should be highly competitive this cycle. Even with the new district being very slightly more favorable to the GOP and Robinson having the advantage of incumbency this time around, assuming he runs again, the Democrats still have a decent shot of winning the seat, given the promising trends and the overall increase in polarization (making ticket-splitting in favor of the Republicans down-ballot less likely). I’m classifying the seat as a Toss Up.

Pennsylvania Senate District 15

PA SD 15 is based in the Harrisburg area. SD 15 has been a closely divided, slightly Republican leaning district under the pre-2024 boundaries, having supported Trump by between 4 and 5 points in 2016 and by less than a percentage point in 2020. The recent senate races have also been close, with Republican John DiSanto narrowly winning the seat by between 3 and 4 points in both 2016 and 2020. (Note that he flipped the seat in 2016, defeating incumbent Democrat Rob Teplitz.) However, under the 2024 boundaries, SD 15 is now heavily Dem leaning, with the new district removing solidly Republican rural areas north of Harrisburg, while adding in Dem-leaning suburbs just south of the city. Specifically, the new district would have easily supported Biden by nearly 14 points. SD 15 should be an easy pick-up for Dems, given how much more favorable the new district is, but the seat still has the potential to be somewhat competitive, given that the Republicans do have the advantage of incumbency. I’m classifying SD 15 as Likely Democrat, though I could see potentially moving it to “Safe Democrat” if DiSanto ends up not running.

Pennsylvania Senate District 49

PA SD 49 is based around Erie County, containing the city proper. SD 49 swung fairly heavily to the right in 2016 at the presidential level under the pre-2024 boundaries, with Hillary Clinton just narrowly carrying the seat by less than 2 points, after Obama had carried it by a considerably larger 18.5 margin four years prior. In addition, Republican Dan Laughlin managed to flip the seat in 2016, as he defeated incumbent Democrat Sean Wiley by nearly 7 points despite Clinton carrying the district. As a GOP-held district that Clinton won, the seat was seen as a top pick-up opportunity for Dems in 2020. However, the State Senate race ended up not being close at all, with Laughlin winning reelection by nearly 20 points, even with Biden winning the seat by nearly 5 points, a few points better than Clinton. Apparently, the 2020 Dem candidate, Julie Slomski, made a statement that made it sound as though she wanted an entry tax to Presque Isle, a popular tourist attraction in the district, which may have (at least partially) explained her poor performance. The 2024 boundaries have not drastically altered the district, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 2.5 points. (The new district expands further south into more Republican leaning areas). With a (presumably) stronger Democratic candidate this time around, SD 49 should be considerably more competitive this cycle. Still, I’m giving Laughlin the edge for now, considering that his 2020 overperformance is likely at least somewhat due to his strengths as a candidate, in addition to his opponent’s weaknesses. I’m classifying SD 49 as Lean Republican, though I could see potentially shifting the seat to “Toss Up”, if the Dems nominate a really strong candidate, such as state house member Ryan Bizzarro, who has consistently overperformed in his house races. The seat would also automatically become a “Toss Up” (or better) for Dems if Laughlin ends up not running.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of both the new and old districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the remaining statewide/presidential results of the old districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/7/2156692/-Pennsylvania-State-Senate-Districts-2024-SD-45-SD-37-SD-15-SD-49

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