(C) Daily Kos

(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .

Ukraine Invasion Day 376: "Painful and difficult battle in the Donbas" [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2023-03-05

"A Russian is on an airliner heading to the US, and the American in the seat next to him asks, “So what brings you to the US?” The Russian replies, “I’m studying the American approach to propaganda.” The American says, “What propaganda?” The Russian says, “That’s what I mean.” A pluralistic system, while in some ways making it more difficult for propaganda to prevail, also offers the propaganda that does prevail good camouflage." (Responsible Statecraft)

Kyiv has said it is holding off attacks from Russian forces still attempting to surround Bakhmut, a near-destroyed eastern Ukrainian city that Moscow has been trying to capture for months.

Ukraine has pledged to defend “fortress Bakhmut” but has faced Russian troops determined to take the city that has become a political prize as the battle drags on.

“The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signalled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement,”

x Russian forces are attacking Bakhmut from three directions in a persistent attempt to encircle Ukrainian troops, the Ukrainian military said Sunday, maintaining pressure on the city that has become the focal point of Moscow’s offensive in eastern Ukraine. https://t.co/tz7TKxx0ku — The New York Times (@nytimes) March 5, 2023

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete withdrawal from the city. Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from their positions on the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River given recent geolocated footage of the destruction of the railway bridge over the river in northeastern Bakhmut on March 3. [1] Russian war correspondents and milbloggers claimed that Russian forces captured eastern, northern, and southern parts of Bakhmut on March 5 and claimed to be reporting from positions in eastern Bakhmut, but ISW cannot independently verify these claims at this time. [2] Geolocated footage showed that Wagner Group forces continued to make advances in northeastern Bakhmut and advanced near the Stupky railway station on March 5. [3] A Ukrainian serviceman told a Ukrainian outlet that Russian forces have yet to cross the Bakhmutka River into central Bakhmut as of March 4, and Russian milbloggers claimed that the Wagner Group pushed Ukrainian positions back to central Bakhmut. [4] It is unclear if Ukrainian forces are planning to hold positions on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River. The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties. Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare. Russian forces are unlikely to quickly secure significant territorial gains when conducting urban warfare, which usually favors the defender and can allow Ukrainian forces to inflict high casualties on advancing Russian units—even as Ukrainian forces are actively withdrawing. The Bakhmut city center is located on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River, and Russian forces will need to fight through the area if they are unable to advance directly north or south of Bakhmut to the west of the city center. Such urban conditions and river features may benefit Ukrainian forces if Ukrainian forces are able to hold the line from Khromove (a settlement on Bakhmut’s northwestern outskirts) south to the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway. Russian milbloggers noted that Ukrainian forces are retaining the ability to defend Khromove and are continuing to repel Russian attacks on Ivanivske and on the T0504 highway to the south. [5] The Ukrainian defense of positions near Khromove and on the T0504 could force Russian forces to fight through the urban terrain of central Bakhmut, which could impose significant delays and losses on Russian forces and accelerate the culmination of Russia’s offensive. Urban warfare in Bakhmut may further degrade already exhausted Russian mixed forces in a fashion similar to that caused by Ukraine’s fighting withdrawal from the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line, which effectively ended Russian offensive operations in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the summer of 2022. www.understandingwar.org/...

The likely imminent culmination of the Russian offensive around Bakhmut, the already culminated Russian offensive around Vuhledar, and the stalling Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast are likely setting robust conditions for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces had regained the initiative in Ukraine as of February 8, but Russian forces have since failed to capitalize on that initiative to secure any operationally significant gains. [32] Russian forces will likely lose the initiative in Ukraine within the coming months due to the likely culmination of their three main offensive efforts. Ukrainian forces previously seized the initiative after the culmination of the Russian offensive to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in July of 2022 and conducted counteroffensives operations a few months later that resulted in the liberation of large swathes of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts. The culmination of Russia’s current three offensive efforts will likely allow Ukrainian forces to launch counteroffensives anywhere along the frontline that they deem best suited for such operations. The high manpower and equipment costs that the Russian military has spent in failed offensive operations in Luhansk and western Donetsk oblasts and on the operationally insignificant city of Bakhmut will benefit these likely upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensives. Key inflections in ongoing military operations on March 5: The Ukrainian Air Force Command and Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reported that Russian forces began using new UPAB-1500V aerial bombs against Ukrainian targets. [33]

Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks northwest and south of Kreminna. [34]

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Avdiivka and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City. [35] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces advanced to Pervomaiske, 8km northwest of Donetsk City. [36]

The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report that Russian forces are attempting to create conditions for the transition to an offensive in some areas of the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions. [37] ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to launch sustained offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian Deputy Prosecutor General Viktoriya Litvinova reported that Russia deported about 16,000 children of whom 307 were able to return to Ukraine. [38] The Ukrainian Presidential Commissioner for Human Rights Daria Herasimchuk reported that Russian officials use coercive tactics to separate Ukrainian children from their parents in order to deport them. [39]

Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska reported that Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating 171 cases of sexual assault committed by Russian Forces against Ukrainian citizens.[40] www.understandingwar.org/...

KYIV, Ukraine – Russia will run out of "military tools" to achieve its war aims in Ukraine by the end of the spring, Ukraine's top military intelligence official predicted in a USA TODAY interview. Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov's forecast comes amid considerable uncertainty about what the next phase of the war will look like as it moves into its second year. For weeks, Ukrainian officials had signaled that Russia was planning a major new offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. A notable new offensive has yet to materialize. "Russia has wasted huge amounts of human resources, armaments and materials. Its economy and production are not able to cover these losses. It's changed its military chain of command. If Russia's military fails in its aims this spring, it will be out of military tools," Budanov said in his heavily guarded, fortified Kyiv office, which he shares with two pet frogs, poisonous-gas detecting canaries and a range of ammunitions. www.usatoday.com/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAR 5

13:0 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by Oryx's @Rebel44CZ (+ corrections, backlog from previous day)

VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

3.13x losses to date ➡

2.74x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ⬆

3.34x 30-day average ⬆

📈 https://t.co/21P9Wc7qOe pic.twitter.com/RoAyPzpILE — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) March 5, 2023

We are in the midst of a perilous moment in world history, one that demands a robust debate about the motives and actions of powerful nation states. There should be more debate, not less. Groupthink does a disservice to a democratic society, particularly when the world is closer to the threat of nuclear war than at any time in recent history. [...] Questioning the current U.S. policy is not appeasement or Russian puppetry, particularly because the false choice — let Putin conquer Ukraine completely, or flood Ukraine with Western weapons — is so insidiously and dishonestly pushed by the elite power structure in Washington D.C. and Europe. The fact is that prominent U.S. officials and pundits have stated from the very early stages of this war that Ukraine is a convenient battleground to debilitate Russia and hopefully end Putin’s reign, which is very different from a “moral” duty to protect the defenseless. theintercept.com/...

x Ukrainian pilots are in U.S. to determine fighter jet skills

Yet the U.S. still does not plan to send F-16s to #Ukraine, for now.

https://t.co/8F4HKtOGNq — chris wynnyk wilson 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 (@CWynnykWilson) March 5, 2023

Military experts say that Russia’s offensive is being fought at five or six points along a front line that stretches about 100 miles from the town of Kreminna in Luhansk to Vuhledar in Donetsk, where Moscow suffered heavy losses in a tank battle in recent weeks. While Russian forces have not made significant territorial gains in their renewed offensive, they have been tightening the claw around Bakhmut. Last month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine vowed that Ukraine would not give up on Bakhmut, calling it “our fortress.” But in recent days, Ukrainian officials have been preparing the public for the possibility of a retreat. [...] The ultimate goal of Ukraine’s spring push, according to a senior Ukrainian official and military experts, could be to sever the land bridge in the south of the country between Moscow’s forces in Russian-occupied Crimea and other territory that Russia has seized. But experts also caution that it is difficult to predict the precise location of Kyiv’s next drive. Russian and Ukrainian forces have spent months preparing for their renewed offensives. As Ukraine awaits the arrival of new, sophisticated weapons from Western allies, the government in Kyiv could gain an advantage because Russia has effectively launched its offensive first, according to Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute focused on national security. “Ukraine is much better off receiving this Russian offensive, having the Russian military exhaust itself, then launching their major operation later in the spring perhaps, very likely, in the south in Zaporizhzhia,” he said last month on the War on the Rocks podcast. www.nytimes.com/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... A Russian cargo ship slipped quietly into the Black Sea with a suspected load of war supplies for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The ship, Sparta IV, was loaded in Syria and sailed with a Russian Navy escort. Although Turkey closed the waterway between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to Russian warships, the flow of military supplies continues. www.navalnews.com/... www.understandingwar.org/... But there are two things about the Institute for the Study of War that you may not know. First is the extent of its influence. Since war broke out in February, ISW has been the elite media’s go-to think tank for information and analysis. Barely a day goes by that it isn’t cited by a reporter in either the New York Times, the Washington Post, or the Wall Street Journal. In the past six days—the first six days of this month—it has been cited in at least ten articles that appeared in one of those outlets. The second thing you may not be aware of is how ideological the academic-sounding Institute for the Study of War is. It has neoconservative roots and is run and staffed by pretty extreme hawks. Over the years it has gotten funding from various corners of the arms industry—General Dynamics, Raytheon, lesser known defense contractors, and big companies, like General Motors, that aren’t known as defense contractors but do get Pentagon contracts. Before saying more about ISW, I want to emphasize that I’m not claiming to have caught it in some capital crime. The Institute doesn’t spread untruths, even if it’s selective about the truths it promotes and tactical in how it arranges them. That’s part of my point: One reason propaganda often flies under the radar in America is that it can be subtle. Another claim I’m not making is that ISW has exerted pivotal influence in the case of Ukraine. I’m not even saying the larger network of hawkish think tanks it’s part of has been pivotal. When a big country run by a famously ruthless autocrat invades a smaller neighbor that’s a democracy, Americans will naturally (and rightly) side with the country that got invaded and will favor giving it support. In that sense, the Institute for the Study of War, along with other voices that advocate robust military spending, has been pushing on an open door. responsiblestatecraft.org/...

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/5/2156413/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-376-Painful-and-difficult-battle-in-the-Donbas

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/