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Ukraine update: Bakhmut holds, but Russian forces have entered the city on north and east [1]
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Date: 2023-02-28
One is simply that it was never meant to be there. The UJ-22, which was covered back in the Field Guide to Drones of Ukraine, is primarily a reconnaissance drone. Yes, it can carry up to 20 kg of gear, so, in theory, a bomb could be strapped under there. However, it’s very large and slow to serve as any kind of suicide drone. It’s also pretty costly compared to a small consumer drone. It looks very much like a half-scale model of a Cessna.
The real way in which this particular drone is usually flown is at high altitude, with a pack of hi res cameras, IR cameras, and radar systems pointing down. It’s operated by a ground station that uses a HOTAS setup (think flight simulator controls) rather than the kind of controller used for smaller drones.
Operators fly the UJ-22 over an area and produce strategic mapping. They’re not using this drone to search for a Russian soldier hiding in a trench. They’re using it to see where Russia is digging new trenches—and there they are piling up ammo and gear. The simplest explanation for who the drone ended up in the snow in a part of Russia southeast of Ukraine is this: An operator, probably near Odesa, launched the drone from a runway in that area, flew it over Crimea, and lost communications somewhere along the way. The drone then kept flying until it ran out of gas and crashed. There seems to be no indication that it was shot down by Russian forces.
The presence of a gas-pressurization station in the area is a coincidence. Odds are good this drone wasn’t even carrying any sort of weapon. That’s one good theory. Here’s another one.
Last April, StopFake.org reported on how Russian sources had publicized the supposed wreckage of Ukrainian drones at two locations inside Russia. One of those drones reportedly went down near Kursk in mid-April, while the other was found in the Bryansk region, about 50 km from the Russian border, a month before. However, a quick examination showed that this was actually two sets of photos showing the same wreckage.
To give the Russian Telegram sources at least a little credit, this doesn’t seem to be the same UJ-22 that was found last April. Or maybe it is … only one has been confirmed lost since the start of the invasion. In any case, at least it’s different parts than what appeared in other images. But no one should be assuming that the location where this was reportedly found, or even the presence of a drone at all, is a given. Russian sources are not only willing to fake these events, they’ve been caught at it before.
One thing that smaller quadcopter drones can do well is this kind of flyby showing the horrifying levels of destruction in and around Bakhmut.
x This is what russia has done to Bakhmut, once a home to almost 75,000 people
Video: @den_kazansky pic.twitter.com/EyrXgLyI05 — Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) February 26, 2023
There are more reports this morning that Ukraine has pulled forces that were still east of the small river that runs north-south through the city. Fighting still appears to be going on, block by block, in the north of the city, with continued fighting near the “hell intersection” where the M03 highway and other roads come together in a set of complex exchanges north of Bakhmut.
The big concern remains a Russian push to the south a few kilometers west of the city. While some sources kept insisting on Monday that the extension of the Russian lines was a trap meant to draw Russia into that area before a Ukrainian counteroffensive, those claims seem to be coming from the same place as earlier Russian claims that Ukraine was being lured into a trap in Kharkiv or Kherson—it’s one of those things people say when things are going badly and they don’t want to accept it. Right now, there is no sign that this Russian advance has been cut off or destroyed, as some sources have claimed.
In Bakhmut, things right now are going badly. Ukrainian forces are continuing to make Russia pay for almost every block, but the time when they can be effective there, and when they can make the ratio of Russian losses many times that of Ukrainian losses, may be close to an end.
Images are now showing Wagner Group forces apparently walking without opposition through the Stupka district of Bakhmut. The Zabakhmutka and Myasokombinat neighborhoods in the east also appear to be lost.
However, Ukrainian forces still hold the center of the city.
Ukraine continues to repel Russian attempts to advance south of the city, so the “Road of Life” running west from Bakhmut through Khromove to Chasiv Yar remains open. But that push from the north and the loss of sections of Bakhmut proper are making things exceedingly difficult. Magyar seems exhausted. I’m sure he is.
So long as Ukraine was able to hold well-defended positions and fire into Russian forces trying to cross open areas or assault defended buildings, Ukraine could be certain that even a Russian “victory” in the Bakhmut area came at a lopsided cost. As the fighting grows closer and Ukraine leaves those long-held positions in the east, casualties between the two sides will likely be more even. If Russia can close the road into the city, there’s a risk of a significant force of Ukrainian troops and equipment being lost. That’s the kind of loss Ukraine does not want to take. One of the most important parts of a defense like the one Ukraine has waged in Bakhmut is knowing when to leave.
All that has to be weighed today before we can say “Bakhmut holds!” again tomorrow.
As always, the level of Ukrainian aviation operating near the front continues to be amazing.
x A mixed group of Ukrainian Mi-24s and Mi-8s head towards the front at low level. pic.twitter.com/fDdjyGnBCS — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 28, 2023
Remember this village? It’s likely to go down as one of the most important locations of the entire war. This is the point where Russia’s Izyum salient ran out of steam, and where their last push toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk from the north was broken by a much smaller Ukrainian force operating from these hills. Russia held Svyatohirske across the river. Their forces were pressing from north and west, but they could not crack this nut. A “hero village,” even if no village is left to accept the medal.
x The village of Bohorodichne in Donbas. At the southern tip of Russia's advance from Izyum last summer, it was completely annihilated by months of artillery fire. Not a building left intact. pic.twitter.com/IrggbFD9XA — Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) February 28, 2023
A breakdown of the Russian losses at Vuhledar. At this point, I honestly can’t tell you if this includes all the attempted advances there, just the last attempted advance, or something in between. But the details are incredible. It’s up to 101 vehicles lost.
x Thread about russian losses during the "offensive" in #Vuhledar pic.twitter.com/I0LIpoV6WE — Robert ✙ (@OcultaMondiala) February 6, 2023
No matter where you are in the world, money cannot buy taste.
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