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Atmospherics of President Biden's speech in Warsaw (with photos) [1]

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Date: 2023-02-25

Other have talked about the content of the speech, but I’d like to focus a bit on the environment in Warsaw. Warsaw was a good location for the speech: Poles like Americans; Poles support Ukraine in its defense against Russia; it’s a lot safer than Kyiv.

There are a lot of Polish Americans, who have come to the U.S. at different periods, but more and less recent. That means that a lot of Poles in Poland have ties: they may have relatives, they may have visited, the older generation remembers Ronald Reagan fondly and credits American support both during late communism and in its immediate aftermath. Many Poles follow American politics to some degree and transpose local politics undo American politics. Former President Trump paid a lot of attention to Poland (rather than to allies of longer standing such as the French and the Germans) and the current Polish government felt a sort of kinship. Supporters of the current Polish government (led by the Law and Justice Party — PiS) tended to like the Republican party: there is some congruence in terms of social values (opposition to abortion, skepticism about LGBTQI+ communities); on the other hand some of PiS’ social policies (protecting jobs of workers at state enterprises; monthly payments to families with children) don’t really fit with the Republican policies. After the US Presidential elections in 2020, Polish President Duda waiting a while before congratulating Joe Biden on a well run campaign. On the flip side, those that support the Polish opposition tend to see themselves in the Democratic party. For much of 2021, the Polish government and its supporters had a conflicted attitude towards the Biden administration: on the one hand the supporters criticized the Biden administration as being driven by identity politics; on the other, the government very much wanted high level engagement — either a visit to Washington for President Duda, or a visit to Poland by President Biden. This year (2023) is an election year, and the last US President *not* to visit Poland was Ronald Reagan. President Biden *not* coming to Poland would have been seen as a rejection of the PiS government. In terms of foreign policy, Poland and Hungary were perceived as aligned in their confrontation with the European Commission and different vision of the EU.

All this changed after February 24. Poland and Hungary parted ways in their reaction to Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine. I like to describe Poland as the most pro-Ukraine country in the world (and that includes Ukraine). Poland has been central in the response: most of the people that fled Ukraine passed through Poland, and the largest number have remained in Poland; Poland has been the main logistic hub for assistance going into Ukraine, and has played a role in getting Ukrainian grain out for export; Poland has played a political role in rallying support for EU sanctions against Russia. And attitudes towards the U.S. — already high — have gotten even more positive.

The US had been clear about the danger in the lead up to the invasion — including sending the 82nd Airborne to Southeastern Poland. President Biden came to Poland in March to make it clear that NATO is united and will defend every inch of NATO territory (which includes Poland, but not Ukraine.) Opinion polls indicate that Poles are more pro-American than at any time in the last thirty years — and the Biden administration is most popular among supporters of PiS.

Before the visit was officially announced, President Biden had responded to a Polish journalist that he might go to Poland — which started a lot of speculation. Would he go to Southern Poland near the border? Would he go to Ukraine? Even after President Biden went to Ukraine, there was speculation that Zelenskyy would join him in Warsaw. On the day of the speech, there was speculation about whether Polish President Duda would speak. (Some Poles weren’t happy that CNN announcers talked over his remarks.)

Even with the strong interest, it was by no means clear that holding an outdoor speech in February was a great idea. If you look at the disruption snow has caused across the United States at various points this winter, you know the potential problems. For several days before the speech there were high winds. The day before there was rain, snow, and I believe there was hail at one point. The morning of the speech, clouds were just flying across the sky. There was a bit of rain at one point. The day after the speech was a fair bit colder. But there is no indoor space in Warsaw that would accommodate the number of people that came to the speech. Warsaw was actually a bit empty last week because families are taking holidays during the school break. While the speech in March was on a Saturday, this year people had to take off work to be there when the doors opened to the public at 2:00 for the 5:30 speech. Getting there required a bit of walking. There isn’t much parking nearby. Major roads on two sides of the venue were closed. A lot of public transportation was suspended in the vicinity. There was still a good crowd by 2:45.

The staging was dramatic. The City of Warsaw estimates that there were 30,000 people in attendance. After the speech, as people were leaving, may of those that had been further back, worked their way to the front to fully soak in the atmosphere.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/25/2154901/-Atmospherics-of-President-Biden-s-speech-in-Warsaw-with-photos

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