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Democrats consistently overperforming in special elections early in the 2024 cycle [1]

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Date: 2023-02-23

Wisconsin Supreme Court race : In the technically nonpartisan primary, two left-leaning candidates split 54% of the vote and two right-leaning candidates split 46% of the vote. That bodes well for the left-leaner, Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz, who on April 4 will go head-to-head against right-leaner and former Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly to decide the seat.

The special election in Virginia’s 4th Congressional District finds Democrat Jennifer McClellan leading her GOP opponent by 49 points . That's a 13-point improvement on President Joe Biden's already commanding 36-point win in VA-04 in 2020. It also suggests a dramatic rebound for Democrats after the party’s 2021 gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe only won the district by 13 points and the late Democratic incumbent Rep. Donald McEachin in 2022 (30 points).

Kentucky Democratic state Senate candidate Cassie Chambers Armstrong prevailed by 54 points in a district Biden won by 30 points.

New Hampshire Democrat Chuck Grassie managed to win a tie-breaker election for state House by 11 points (568-451) after he and his GOP opponent locked horns in November at 970 votes each. GOP control of the chamber has now been whittled down to just four seats.

Earlier this month, Pennsylvania Democrats won victories in three state House special elections in suburban Pittsburgh, securing a 102-101 majority in the lower chamber. Democratic wins were expected in each race but the landslide victories in each case considerably overperformed Biden's 2020 margins.

The extent to which Democrats continue to outperform Biden in various regions of the country, including some key battleground states, could signal that Democrats have the upper hand heading into next year's presidential race. At the very least, the results suggest that Democrats are currently in good position, although there's still a mind-boggling eternity to travel between now and Election Day 2024.

But these are exactly the signals that pundits and analysts ignored last year as they doubled down on historical trends that ultimately proved very misleading.

Bottom line: Parties want to win special elections. It shows momentum. While several elections in the 2022 cycle yielded mixed results before the Supreme Court overturned 50 years of abortion precedent, Democrats consistently beat expectations in special elections following the ruling.

As the presidential draws closer, continued Democratic momentum would be an encouraging sign, though it's certainly not solely determinative of general election outcomes.

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Youngkin won by keeping Trump at bay. Congressional Republicans can't possibly replicate that

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/23/2154653/-Democrats-are-consistently-overperforming-in-special-elections-early-in-the-2024-cycle

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