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Ukraine Invasion Day 364: entering the second year of war [1]

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Date: 2023-02-21

Same war, different day. Russia continues its war of imperial expansion referred to still as a “special military operation”.

Key Takeaways Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions for the war in Ukraine, instead reinforcing several long-standing rhetorical lines in an effort to buy Putin more space and time for a protracted war.

Putin announcement of Russia’s suspension of participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) captured more attention than the relatively boilerplate content of the rest of the speech.

US President Joe Biden gave a speech in Warsaw, Poland on February 21 to reaffirm US and NATO support for Ukraine after his trip to Kyiv.

Many Russian milbloggers condemned Putin’s failure to use his speech to forward new war aims, outline new measures to support the war, or hold Russian authorities accountable for their many military failures.

International journalists reportedly obtained the Kremlin’s classified 2021 strategy document on restoring Russian suzerainty over Belarus through the Union State by 2030.

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee Central Foreign Affairs Commission Office Director Wang Yi met in Moscow on February 21 on deepening Sino–Russian cooperation.

The Financial Times (FT) reported that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s international companies continue to garner hundreds of millions of dollars in profits despite long-standing Western sanctions.

Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a limited counterattack near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued making incremental tactical gains in and around Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks near Avdiivka.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue to reinforce and build fortifications in rear areas in southern Ukraine.

The Kremlin may be directing patronage programs between Russian regions and occupied Ukrainian territory to promote socio-economic recovery and infrastructure development.

Russian President Vladimir Putin further expanded unrealistic promises of benefits for Russian soldiers in his address to the Russian Federal Assembly. www.understandingwar.org/...

x During President Putin's speech today, the UN Human Rights Office issued verified figures for civilian casualties after a year of war in Ukraine.



8,006 civilians have been killed and a further 13,287 injured. However, the UN believes the actual figures to be considerably higher. pic.twitter.com/v28rkQn5wX — Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 21, 2023

x HIGHLIGHTS FOR FEBRUARY 21:

■ 🇺🇦 airstrikes still above 7-day average

■ Troop losses slightly below 7-day average

■ 150k losses still expected on Mar 1 (see new "Russian troop losses" page)

■ Equipment losses include double-digit tankshttps://t.co/XgoVQY89lg — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) February 21, 2023

lookerstudio.google.com/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued making incremental tactical gains in and around Bakhmut. Geolocated footage taken on February 14 and posted on February 20 shows Ukrainian tanks firing at Russian infantry in the tree line along the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway, confirming that Russian forces have succeeded in cutting the E40 northwest of Bakhmut.[29] However, the fact that Russian forces interdicted the E40 a week ago and still have not forced Ukrainians to withdraw from Bakhmut suggests that it is not the vital logistics artery into the city that milbloggers often claim it is. Geolocated footage additionally indicates that Russian forces have made small advances northeast of Bakhmut near Berestove (20km northeast of Bakhmut) and in southwestern Bakhmut in the area of the Mariupolske Cemetary.[30] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Vasyukivka (11km north) and Berkhivka (4km north); and northeast of Bakhmut around Vasylivka (21km northeast).[31] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defensive lines near Yahidne (on the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut) and reached the Stupky railway station on the northern tip of Bakhmut.[32] Several Russian milbloggers noted that the Wagner Group is approaching the AZOM metal processing plant in northern Bakhmut and assessed that fighting in Bakhmut may concentrate on the territory of the plant as Wagner tries to move into the center of the city.[33] Milbloggers compared the AZOM plant to Ukrainian defensive efforts at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol and the Azot steel plant in Severodonetsk in 2022.[34] A Russian milblogger additionally claimed that Russian forces are still fighting near Ivanivske, 5km west of Bakhmut.[35] The concentration of milblogger claims regarding Russian efforts in northern Bakhmut compared to the relative silence regarding operations west of Bakhmut along the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway may suggest that Russian forces have given up on trying to encircle Bakhmut and are instead focusing on fighting into Bakhmut from the north. This effort is likely to be exceedingly costly and slow, given the dense urban environment and Ukrainian fortification systems within Bakhmut. The Russians may resume efforts to encircle Bakhmut in the coming days or weeks, however. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1- Luhansk Oblast ( Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna on February 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 21 that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Hryanykivka and Masiutivka (both 54km northwest of Svatove).[25] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a ground attack from Shyplivka (8km south of Kreminna) and gained positions in the Serebrianska forest area (roughly 11km southwest of Kreminna).[26] The milblogger also claimed that Russian forces attacked Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Terny (17km west of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna). www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization) Russian President Vladimir Putin further expanded unrealistic promises of benefits for Russian soldiers in his February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly. Putin announced a policy of regular 14-day leaves for Russian soldiers at least once every 6 months and proposed the creation of a special state fund for targeted, personal assistance to the families of fallen soldiers and veterans of the war in Ukraine.[47] Such unlikely-to-manifest promises are probably losing credibility among the Russian public, as the Russian government has already failed to deliver on a variety of financial promises to soldiers, as ISW has previously reported.[48] Putin also attempted to divert responsibility for providing for military personnel to Russia’s federal subjects, calling for all federal departments, municipalities, and beyond to pay close attention to the needs of military personnel and their families.[49] Russian authorities continue to use the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian educational institutions to support force-generation efforts. A Russian opposition source stated on February 20 that Russian priests discussed the war in Ukraine and encouraged medical college students to apply for early conscription while the students visited the Church of the Nativity in Volzhsky, Volgograd Oblast on a school trip.[50] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on February 21 that Russian authorities are taking measures to prepare for another wave of mobilization by creating “alert stations” in universities to aid the mobilization of full-time students and have already worked with the management of Novosibirsk State Pedagogical University, Tomsk Polytechnic University, and Tomsk State Pedagogical University.[51] The GUR published an intercepted document dated February 9, 2023, that apparently shows documentation of such an arrangement with the Russian Ministry of Enlightenment and Tomsk State Pedagogical University.[52] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...

x Ukraine 🇺🇦 will be receiving JDAM-ER GPS-guided Long-Range bombs from USA 🇺🇸 that were modified for Soviet jets to launch them (Bloomberg)



JDAM-ER kits can be put on unguided bombs with warheads ranging from 500 to 2,000lb. The JDAM-ER is then airdropped and can glide up to 72km pic.twitter.com/9c47ysKt4O — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) February 21, 2023

Gepper Gepard @Gepard_36 Replying to @Damian_Kanarek @ukraine_map

M31 rocket $168k. JDAM $20- $30k. Each of UA's birds has at least 9 hard points. Each JDAM goes to a different target. Can do 2000lb JDAM bombs for bridges, but without Wild Weasels on rail and road NW Crimea would allow nap of Earth.

x We have 3 Programs for military aid to UA



(All of them are until 09/30).



PDA, USAI and L&L.



All what UA received from US ($30 Billion so far), were via PDA and USAI, none of them via L&L. Means-gifts.https://t.co/erCLntgAeT — 27 MWE (@UnknownIsPain) February 21, 2023

x As a child in London Ontario, siren tests filled the neighborhood with an eerie chill.. on our street a German family, Holocaust survivors, and Dad, a WW2 vet and POW.

This video, Biden and Zelenskyy walking Kyiv amid an attack, reminds us all:

STAY brave. pic.twitter.com/gXrWqK825W — Barb ☕ Antifascism 🍁🇨🇦 Independent Researcher (@barbetta1) February 21, 2023

x Greenpeace: RT @GreenpeaceEU: 🌳 Nature restoration is going to be a key part of #Ukraine's recovery



🗺️ @Ecodiya and @GreenpeaceCEE created a map of environmental destruction in Ukraine



⚠️ The war has damaged 1.24 million hectares of nature reserves… https://t.co/2bXJUr4xkJ — HBCU Green Fund (@HBCUGreenFund) February 21, 2023

x #Ukraine #Russia



Russian Wagner mercenaries were recorded recently. On that occasion they complained regarding ammunition supplies from the Russian Defence Ministry: https://t.co/sT2P1mdhvb https://t.co/LVeZdlrlHs — David Kime (@CyberRealms1) February 21, 2023

The challenge for NATO is that a two-speed approach to Ukraine within the alliance increases the potential for disagreement and fracture. Conversely, given the reticence of some West European nations to lead the response to Russian aggression, it’s incumbent on the Baltic States, Poland and others to do so. Ultimately, those predicting a swift end to Russia’s war in Ukraine are likely to be as disappointed in 2023, as they were 12 months earlier. The past year has taught us much: about how the weak can resist the powerful; about the dangers of peace at any price; and about the hubris of believing autocrats can be bought off with inducements. But perhaps most importantly it has taught us to question our assumptions about war. Now, one year into a conflict in Europe that many thought impossible, we are likely about to rediscover just how world-shaping wars can be. theconversation.com/…

x Russia is planning to seize the airport in Moldovan capital Chisinau for Transfer of Russian Troops - Moldovan Prime Minister Recean#Ukraine #Russia #Putin pic.twitter.com/VxWgwDWL1J — UKRAINE LIVE 🇺🇦 (@defensesentinel) February 22, 2023

x Convoy of Armed forces of Ukraine were spotted in the very close to the borders of Transnistria. #Ukraine #Russia #Putin pic.twitter.com/J1dA43iPiF — UKRAINE LIVE 🇺🇦 (@defensesentinel) February 22, 2023

x In an indirect, long-distance debate, President Biden and Vladimir Putin gave speeches offering radically different accounts of who was at fault in Ukraine, and how the war will go. https://t.co/QbxLKSIj1D — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) February 22, 2023

[END]
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