(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Virginia House of Delegates Districts (2023): HD 94, HD 96, HD 97, HD 99 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2023-02-15

Today, I’m looking at four more districts in the Virginia House of Delegates (HoD): HD 94, HD 96, HD 97, and HD 99, all of which are located in the Hampton Roads area, specifically within the cities of Virginia Beach and Norfolk. HD 94 and HD 96 are Dem held, while HD 97 and HD 99 are Republican held.

Virginia House District 94

VA HD 94 encompasses the northern part of Norfolk. HD 94 has been a decently Dem-leaning district, with Hillary Clinton carrying it by 11 points and Joe Biden carrying it by a larger margin of 16.5 points. In the 2017 Governor’s race, Democrat Ralph Northam carried the district by 19 points, slightly outperforming Biden (despite the reverse being true statewide), while in the 2021 Governor’s race, Dem Terry McAuliffe carried the district by a close 4-point margin. HD 94 is open this cycle, as no incumbents have been drawn into the district. As of now, two Democrats are running: Phil Hernandez, who previously ran for HD 100 in 2019 but narrowly lost, and educator Mike Pudhorodsky, as are four Republicans: attorney Amy Chudzinski, Navy veteran Ken O’Brien, Andrew Pittman, and Antonio Respass. HD 94 should be fairly safe for Dems, but the seat still warrants notice given that it’s open this cycle and that the 2021 Gov result was close. I’m classifying HD 94 as Likely Democrat.

Virginia House District 96

VA HD 96 covers central parts of the city of Virginia Beach. HD 96 has been a fairly safe district for Democrats, with Clinton carrying the seat by just over 12 points and Biden carrying it by a larger margin of just under 20 points. Northam easily carried the district in 2017 by around 22 points (again slightly outperforming Biden) while McAuliffe carried it in 2021 by a narrower margin of almost 8 points. HD 96 is open this cycle, as no incumbents have been drawn into the district. There are currently three Democrats running for the seat: Susan Hippen, who has previously run for multiple offices (but lost the primary or general in all cases), Brandon Hutchins, who previously ran for the Virginia Beach City Council (and lost), and Air Force veteran Sean Monteiro. No Republicans are currently running for the seat. HD 96 should be an easily hold for the Democrats this cycle, but just to be on the safe side, I’m classifying it as Likely Democrat, given again the somewhat close 2021 Gov result and the lack of an incumbent. If the Republicans don’t end up running a credible candidate, I could see taking the district off the board entirely (moving it to “Safe Democrat”).

Virginia House District 97

VA HD 97 is located immediately to the north of previously covered HD 96 and is also based in Virginia Beach. HD 97 has been a competitive district that has trended to the left recently, having gone from just narrowly supporting Clinton by less than a percentage point to supporting Biden by a larger 12-point margin. Northam also performed fairly well here in 2017, carrying the district by about 9.5 points, while in 2021, McAuliffe narrowly lost the district by about 2 points. HoD incumbent Republican Karen Greenhalgh, who has been representing HD 85, has been drawn into the new district, giving the GOP the advantage of incumbency (assuming she runs again). HD 85 is very similar partisan-wise to HD 97, having gone for Biden by roughly the same margin. HD 85 had been Democratic held, but very narrowly flipped to the GOP in 2021, when Greenhalgh defeated incumbent Democrat Alex Askew by a razor-thin margin of 115 votes. (Askew won the seat by between 3 and 4 points in 2019, when it was open.) There is currently one Democratic challenger for HD 97: Air Force veteran Michael Feggans. The district should be highly competitive this cycle, and the Democrats have a decent shot to flip the seat back, perhaps being even slightly favored to do so (given that Greenhalgh barely won in 2021). Still, I’m going to cautiously classify HD 97 as a Toss Up.

Virginia House District 99

VA HD 99 covers the northernmost part of Virginia Beach. HD 99 has traditionally leaned fairly heavily Republican, but has moved towards the Democrats in recent years, having gone from supporting Donald Trump by a decent 14-point margin in 2016 to a considerably smaller margin of just over 4 points in 2020. The district was also somewhat close in 2017, with Northam losing the district by just under 6 points, but not in 2021, with McAuliffe losing the district by a very large margin of almost 18 points. The GOP will presumably have the incumbency advantage here, as Republican Anne Ferrell Tata, who has been representing HD 82 since 2021, has been drawn into the new district. HD 82 is very similar politically to HD 99, if not very slightly bluer, with Trump (in 2020) performing about a percentage point worse in the former district. The 2021 house race (for HD 82) was not close at all, with Ferrell Tata winning by a large margin of almost 19 points, nor were the previous two cycles, which saw Republican incumbent Jason Miyares winning by roughly the same margin. On the Democratic side, tattoo company owner Melissa Lukeson is running this cycle. Ferrell Tata should be heavily favored (assuming she runs), but the district has the potential to be competitive, given the close 2020 presidential result and the overall increase in polarization. I’m classifying HD 99 as Likely Republican.

Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2023 districts), cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), and VPAP (for the remaining statewide results of the new districts).

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/15/2153091/-Virginia-House-of-Delegates-Districts-2023-HD-94-HD-96-HD-97-HD-99

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/

You are viewing proxied material from magical.fish. The copyright of proxied material belongs to its original authors. Any comments or complaints in relation to proxied material should be directed to the original authors of the content concerned. Please see the disclaimer for more details.