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Congratulations, Sapiens, on ushering in the lowest global sea ice extent in the satellite record [1]

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Date: 2023-02-05

So, why should I waste my beautiful mind on something like that? Barbara Bush

Since 1978 when sea ice measurements were first taken by satellite, the sea ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic has reached a record low. The consequences will be severe for all of us in the near term and deadly for most in the near and long term; if you think the climate crisis is dangerous now, you just ain’t seen anything yet.

Despite heroic efforts by many in raising climate awareness and building a green energy transition economy over decades, it hasn’t been enough to prevent deglaciation, not for the overwhelming scale of the crisis.

And El Nino is coming. Most will ignore the devastation because they believe they are immune because of air conditioning, a pantry stocked with food, and freshwater flowing from the faucet. Like the rest of us are in for a rude awakening.

There will be no do-over.

Arctic

Losing the remaining Arctic sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego. At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions. It would consequently speed up the arrival of a global threshold of warming of 2ºC beyond temperatures the world experienced before the Industrial Revolution. Scientists and analysts, including the authors of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report released in October 2018, have stated that the planet runs the risk of catastrophic damage ranging from more intense heat waves and coastal flooding to extinction of terrestrial species and threats to food supply if that threshold is passed. The results were published June 20 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. In “Radiative Heating of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean,” former Scripps graduate student Kristina Pistone, now with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute based at NASA Ames Research Center, and Scripps climate scientists Ian Eisenman and Veerabhadran Ramanathan used direct satellite observations to assess the impact of a potential ice-free Arctic Ocean. The authors of the study conclude that the loss of sea ice will add a globally-averaged 0.7 watts per square meter (W/m2) of solar heating to the Earth system, 0.21 W/m2 of which has already occurred between 1979 and 2016. The amount of additional heat introduced into the Earth system because of Arctic melt is equivalent to an increase in CO 2 concentration from 400 to 456.7 parts per million. “Losing the reflective power of Arctic sea ice will lead to warming equivalent to one trillion tons of CO2 and advance the 2ºC threshold by 25 years. Any rational policy would make preventing this a top climate priority for world leaders,” said Ramanathan, a professor of atmospheric and climate sciences at Scripps.

Antarctica

The giant donut of ice encircling Antarctica is volatile. This ring of sea ice around the continent -- which grows each winter and largely melts each summer -- had been gradually increasing in size for 36 years, since reliable satellite measurements came online in 1979. But in late 2014, things changed dramatically. Between 2014 and 2017, the average sea ice extent plummeted, each year losing an area of ice (280,000 square miles) larger than the size of France. "It’s just a huge decrease," marveled NASA scientist Claire Parkinson, who for over 40 years has used satellites to track sea ice trends in Earth’s frigid polar worlds. On Monday, Parkinson published(Opens in a new window) a new, comprehensive analysis of Antarctic sea ice in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The research emphasizes how unpredictable the floating ice around Antarctica can be, and perhaps more so, raises questions about what’s driving the change. The sudden drop, after years of consistent growth, seems puzzling. "I can assure you it’s been puzzling for the scientists also," said Parkinson

His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, President-Designate for COP28, Yes, you read that right, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO is presiding over the United Nations Conference of the Parties on Climate Change.

I don’t believe anyone has the right to call us doomers again.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/5/2151178/-Congratulations-Sapiens-on-ushering-in-the-lowest-global-sea-ice-extent-in-the-satellite-record

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