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Ukraine Invasion Day 347: a major Russian offensive will end by April and will not be successful [1]

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Date: 2023-02-04

More empty threats… ‘All of Ukraine 'will burn' warns Russia’

www.understandingwar.org/…

Ukraine has introduced emergency energy shutdowns in Odesa after a “technological accident” at a high-voltage electricity substation , which has previously been damaged by Russian attacks. Half a million people are without power and officials have warned repairs could take weeks. The government said it would appeal to Turkey for help and ordered the energy ministry’s stocks of high-power generators to be sent to the city

The US attorney general, Merrick Garland, has authorised the country to begin using seized Russian money to aid Ukraine , according to US media. The money would come from assets confiscated from Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev after his April indictment for alleged sanctions evasions, he added.

The Ukrainian president has revoked the citizenship of several former influential politicians , in what he said was another step to “cleanse” the country of pro-Russian influences. Zelenskiy would not list the names, but said they had dual Russian citizenship. According to Ukrainian state media, the list includes several top politicians from the office of Viktor Yanukovych, who served as Ukraine’s pro-Russian president from 2010 until he was removed from office in 2014.

Zelenskiy spoke to UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, on Saturday. The president said he had thanked Sunak for the training of Ukrainian troops so they will be able to use British Challenger tanks.

Portugal has become the latest country to say it will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine , the prime minister, António Costa, said. An inventory has been done of its stocks, with Lisbon asking Germany for parts to help repair them so they can be deployed to Ukraine.

The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said Zelenskiy has agreed that weapons supplied by the west will not be used to attack Russian territory. “There is a consensus on this point,” Scholz told Bild am Sonntag. Scholz rejected Vladimir Putin’s comparison of the intervention of the west with Russia’s struggle during the second world war as “absurd”. “We have carefully weighed each delivery of weapons, in close coordination with our allies, starting with America,” he said, adding that such a consensus-based approach “avoids an escalation”.

Ukraine announced it had fought off a fresh Russian assault on the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut on Saturday, as it endured renewed shelling in the Donetsk region. In his evening address, Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy acknowledged that the situation was getting tougher. Russia, he said, was “throwing more and more of its forces at breaking down our defence. It is very difficult now in Bakhmut, Vugledar, Lyman and other areas”, referring to the frontline cities in the east of the country.

www.theguardian.com/...

x The next several months could be a critical turning point in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That's why the U.S., NATO, and the free world need to do more -- more & better weapons, more & better sanctions, more aid, more diplomacy- now to help Ukraine win. https://t.co/drkXJx5cbn — Michael McFaul (@McFaul) February 5, 2023

x Costa also said that Portugal is currently working with Germany to carry out a logistics operation that will allow the supply of spare parts for the restoration of some tanks.https://t.co/mhLkITAuDY — The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) February 5, 2023

x Captured Russian MT-LB near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast



The vehicle has a 2M-7 naval turret with 2 KPV 14.5mm heavy machine guns mounted atop.

📷https://t.co/fA6tRL4ucJ pic.twitter.com/0ofgfP8N7W — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 5, 2023

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian sources reported that Russian forces conducted limited offensives northwest of Svatove on February 4. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces conducted successful offensive actions near Dvorichne, Kharkiv Oblast (53km northwest of Svatove) and pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement.[25] Other Russian sources amplified the claim, although ISW has not observed any visual confirmation that Russian forces have advanced in the area.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted an attack in the direction of Stelmakhivka (15km west of Svatove).[27]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kreminna area on February 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Kreminna itself and Hrekivka (27km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), and Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).[28] Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District launched an offensive along the Chervonopopivka-Kreminna line a few days ago and advanced close to Yampolivka, Donetsk Oblast (16km west of Kreminna), where fighting is reportedly ongoing.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of positions south and southwest of Dibrova and advanced closer to Hryhorivka (11km south of Kreminna).[30] Russian milbloggers continue to make contradictory claims about Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna), with one milblogger claiming that Russian forces captured the settlement and are currently clearing it and another claiming that Russian forces are still fighting to capture Bilohorivka.[31]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut area on February 4. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces have committed a substantial portion of their forces to offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses in the past week but that they have been unsuccessful.[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bakhmut itself, within 31km northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhokamianske, Krasna Hora, and Paraskoviivka; and 6km west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske.[36] Geolocated footage published on February 4 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced west of Sil (13km north of Bakhmut).[37] Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group fighters continued assaults near Rozdolivka (17km northeast of Bakhmut) and Vasyukivka (15km north of Bakhmut), and that Russian forces attempted to advance in the direction of Spirne (28km northeast of Bakhmut).[38]Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continue offensive operations southwest of Bakhmut attempting to reach the T0504 Highway between Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut.[39] Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Minister Vitaly Kiselyov claimed that Russian forces between Ivanivske and Stupochky (12km southwest of Bakhmut) advanced to within a kilometer of the highway, although other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces were still several kilometers away from the highway.[40] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian forces being closer than 2.5km to the T0504 highway.

www.understandingwar.org/...

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian military assets in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian Tor M2DT air defense system 12km southwest of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast and 8km from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River on February 3, the second instance in two days.[51] The presence of these short-range air defense systems optimized for Arctic warfare near the riverbank suggests that the Russian 80th Separate Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet is operating close to the riverbank and has brought its own air defense systems.[52] The Tor M2DT was clearly unable to defend itself against whatever system Ukraine used to destroy it in a single shot.

www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/4/2151015/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-347-a-major-Russian-offensive-will-end-by-April-and-will-not-be-successful

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