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Ukraine Invasion Day 345: I'd buy that Reaper drone for $1 [1]

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Date: 2023-02-02

'In addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict.'

In mid-January 2023, US President Joe Biden instructed the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, to check the readiness of #Ukraine and Russia for negotiations.

x ⚡️The russians are actively conducting reconnaissance and preparing for an offensive in certain directions. Despite heavy losses, attempts of offensive operations continue in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka directions, — General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) February 2, 2023

x “Moscow could be preparing to open a new front, pushing across the Russian border to recapture territory in Sumy or Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine after being driven out months ago, according to Ukrainian officials and military analysts” https://t.co/ONPhoZ4j67 — Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 1, 2023

x Instead of allowing the conflict to drag, inviting a longer & more dangerous war that can embroil the U.S., Washington should give Ukraine all the help it needs to win quickly & decisively. https://t.co/d4vxOtmKRg — Alexander S. Vindman (@AVindman) February 2, 2023

The absence of local demonstrations affects Putin’s reasons for entering the eastern provinces but it does not affect Putin’s need to control the eastern provinces. Whether or not they are sufficiently Russian to provide cover for a territorial claim, Putin needs them to dominate the “near abroad.” He, and most Russians seem with him on this, does not consider Ukraine to be a real and legitimate country, as is Poland, for example. Like Belarus, Ukraine is part of Russia, cast adrift temporarily when the Soviet Union imploded in 1991, but their return to Russia is considered just a matter of time. The eastern provinces and Crimea should be seen as just a down payment on the inevitable and, from the Russian perspective, appropriate reunion. Putin’s view is not widely shared in the west but it is probably close to a majority sentiment in the eastern border provinces. Even if Putin rigs a takeover of the four eastern provinces that still leaves the Crimea geo-strategically isolated. He still needs a strip of land along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov. This would involve the annexation of all or part of a southern Ukrainian province that is Russian speaking but is not ethnically Russian.[6] There could be no excuse here of protecting ethnic Russians. This annexation would simply be a matter of geo-strategic necessity. The Crimea would be connected by road to the rest of Russia, an absolute necessity if Putin is going to take the eastern border provinces. The government of Ukraine, holding the central and west of the country, would hardly facilitate Russian activities in the Crimea. No, if the eastern provinces are stuffed into Putin’s pockets, there must be a corridor through the oblast of Cherson to the Crimea. That corridor and the reasons for it bring into focus the fate of the rest of the Ukraine. The southern provinces along the Black Sea, including the city of Odessa, are all significantly Russian speaking, all the way to the border of Moldova. Perhaps the eastern provinces are not enough. Perhaps, in Putin’s estimation, the whole south, and Moldova as well, should reunite with Russia. Or, perhaps, merely taking the south creates an exposed southern salient, liable to invasion, cultural, economic, as well as military. Best just to take it all! And now is the time. Ukraine is weak, Europe is weaker,[7] and President Obama is weakest of all. And, Vladimir Putin, unlike Hitler, needs only one round of appeasement. With Ukraine and Moldova, he would be at the border of NATO. Putin could then say, and mean it – temporarily – that he had no further western ambitions. He had already grabbed the border states.[8] mackinderforum.org/...

x Interesting numbers. In November Russia had fewer than 100,000 troops in the field, so mobilisation has been numerically impressive. This figure also exceeds the number of *combat-capable* (not total) troops Ukraine had that month. But … equipment, training, leadership matter. https://t.co/6m5FAzTpqe — Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 1, 2023

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 2



Note from @Rebel44CZ: only 🇷🇺 losses (+58) added (48 with removal of duplicates) - 🇺🇦 to be added later



VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

3.12x losses to date

2.67x counteroffensive

2.12x 30-day average



📈 https://t.co/GsIx58OgFZ pic.twitter.com/f1bW1SBnPz — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) February 2, 2023

x NEW: A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that #Putin ordered the Russian military to capture #Donetsk and #Luhansk oblasts by March 2023, supporting ISW’s most likely course of action assessment for a Russian offensive in eastern #Ukraine. Latest: https://t.co/KVnPz0GGlB pic.twitter.com/YHHq0WKAAQ — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 3, 2023

x Two MQ-9 Reapers For $1 Offered To Ukraine, But Relevancy Questions Remainhttps://t.co/x7hamBAhc1 — The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) February 2, 2023 in for a penny, in for $10M General Atomics has offered to sell the Ukrainian government two of its flagship MQ-9 Reaper drones. While the idea of also sending the company’s MQ-1C Gray Eagle to Ukraine has been floated a number of times since Russia’s all-out invasion began, it remains unclear exactly how valuable either type’s contributions could be considering their vulnerability when operating in contested airspace. In a report published by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), which is worth its own read, the outlet revealed that it had obtained information about the General Atomics offering by reviewing “a letter.” The overall proposal, which was made by General Atomics Chief Executive Officer Linden Blue, would sell Kyiv two company-owned MQ-9 Reaper remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) and a ground control station to operate them from a disparate location for just $1. However, if accepted, WSJ said Kyiv would still have to pay about $10 million in preparation and shipping costs to get the Reapers to Ukraine, and around an additional $8 million each following year to maintain and sustain the drones. www.thedrive.com/... Tank for a Franc? Swiss Weigh Fire Sale of Arms Over Debate on How to Help Ukraine Mothballed vehicles could replace tanks going to Ukraine

Nature of Swiss neutrality shifting amid war in Europe x #FPNews#Russia planning major offensive to mark first anniversary of war: #Ukraine defence minister#UkraineWar #RussiaInvadedUkraine #RussianUkrainianWar https://t.co/WMcaiI6pBr — Firstpost (@firstpost) February 2, 2023 www.understandingwar.org/... Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast) Russian and Ukrainian sources suggested that Russian forces may be preparing offensive actions in the Svatove area. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on February 2 that Russian forces have increased the rate of shelling in the Svatove and Kremmina directions in preparation for an offensive effort in February, supporting ISW’s previous assessment that a Russian offensive effort in Luhansk Oblast is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).[21] A Russian milblogger claimed on February 2 that Ukrainian forces pulled troops to the Kupyansk area due to increased Russian forays on the Hrianykivka-Petropavlivka-Synkivka line (about 50km northwest of Svatove).[22] The milblogger also added that Ukrainian troops deployed sabotage and reconnaissance groups near Kyslivka (25km northwest of Svatove) to monitor the Russian presence in the area.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 2 that Russian forces are preparing to destroy road infrastructure and mine bridges, dams, and crossings near Tavilzhanka (50km north of Svatove on the P79 Kupyansk-Lyman Druhyi highway) in Kharkiv Oblast.[24] These attacks may suggest that Russian forces seek to disrupt Ukrainian logistics necessary for future Ukrainian advances or could be meant to isolate the Ukrainian-held territory between Kupyansk and the front line to facilitate Russian offensive operations in this sector. www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut on February 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Spirne (27km northeast), Bilohorivka (20km northeast), Vasyukivka (10km north), Blahodatne (5km north), and Krasna Hora (4km north); and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka (7km southwest).[28] Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have made incremental advances northeast of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka (15km northeast of Bakhmut) and on the northern outskirts of Bakhmut itself.[29] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Group captured Sacco i Vanzetti and Mykolaivka, two settlements about 15km north of Bakhmut, on February 1 and 2, respectively.[30] Russian milbloggers continued to claim that Wagner Group forces are trying to encircle Krasna Hora from the direction of Paraskoviivka (5km north of Bakhmut) and Blahodatne and making gains in urban areas on the northern and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.[31] Russian milbloggers additionally reported that Ukrainian troops are holding their positions in Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut along the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway) and claimed that Wagner fighters have advanced to within two kilometers of the T0504 highway.[32] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian concentration areas and logistics in southern Ukraine. Social media sources amplified geolocated footage on February 2 that shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian surface-to-air missile systems near Oleskhy, Kherson Oblast, reportedly belonging to the 80th Separate Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Northern Fleet.[38] Geolocated footage published on February 2 shows the aftermath of a reported Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian ammunition depot near Novoukrainka, Zaporizhia Oblast.[39] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/2/2150782/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-345-I-d-buy-that-Reaper-drone-for-1

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