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A "Realist" view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the U.S. position [1]
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Date: 2023-01-30
Whatever the ultimate outcome of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, from the U.S. position, Russia has already lost.
The first ten major gains for the U.S. can be listed without even mentioning Ukraine:
1) NATO is united in purpose as it has not been in the last 30 years, with the goal of making aggressive warfare in Europe unprofitable;
2) A long-time U.S. goal of having Europe not be subject to Russian geopolitical blackmail over natural gas and oil has been realized;
3) the U.S. goal of NATO members spending 2% of GDP on defense will be realized, and the approximately $115 billion in additional defense spending is nearly twice Russian pre-war defense spending;
4) Probable accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO is a geopolitical benefit previously thought unlikely;
5) In order to avoid becoming cannon fodder, several hundred thousand younger and more skilled Russian men have sought opportunities outside Russia;
6) Widespread sanctions have diminished Russia's ability to build advanced weapons and to provide the civilian population with consumer goods comparable to those available in the West;
7) Western governments have frozen up to 300 billion dollars worth of Russian financial assets and have restricted Russia's ability to trade with other countries;
8) Many Western businesses have withdrawn from Russia;
9) Former Soviet Republics in Asia have shown increasing defiance of Russian interference;
10) Russian war crimes have turned Western public opinion strongly against Russia.
In addition there is the very significant degradation of Russian military capability as a result of Ukrainian opposition to the Russian invasion:
11) Ukraine has brought about the destruction of many elite Russian military units and of their equipment;
12) Ukraine has depleted Russia's vast ex-Soviet stocks of munitions and equipment;
13) Ukraine has proven the capability at scale of many advanced Western weapons, such as Bayraktar, Javelin, GMLRS/HIMARS, Excalibur shells, and NASAMS;
14) Ukraine has destroyed the image of the Russian military as a nearly invincible force, and has shown their inability to conduct the kind of air/land battle of which the U.S. showed mastery 30 years ago;
15) Russian war crimes have brought about a near-complete abhorence of Russia among Ukrainians, assuring that Ukraine will be a bulwark against Russian aggression and Russian propaganda for the foreseeable future.
In addition to these "realist" points, there are overwhelming humanitarian reasons to support Ukraine in its quest for full victory--a return to Ukraine of all territories illegally occupied by Russia since 2014.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/30/2150140/-A-Realist-view-of-the-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine-from-the-U-S-position
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