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Ukraine update: Russia is so worried about Western tanks, it called on King Tankie for help [1]

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Date: 2023-01-26

Unfortunately for both Trump and Vladimir Putin, as of yesterday, we’re officially past the “will they” stage of sending Western tanks to Ukraine. All that’s left is the how many and when.

x Ukraine 🇺🇦 will be receiving Britain's 14 Challenger 2 🇬🇧 Battle Tanks at the end of March, says UK’s MoD pic.twitter.com/ggHuNbEjUs — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) January 26, 2023

The answer to the first part of that question is still changing as more and more nations sort through their collection of idle tanks and determine what they can send to Ukraine. Even Canada is considering passing along four Leopard 2A4s out of a group of 80 that it obtained secondhand from the Netherlands in 2007. The ultimate answer to the first part of that question is certainly going to be in triple digits, and is likely to be close to 200 within the next year.

Tanks on their way to Ukraine Country Tank Number First

Delivery Confirmed* United Kingdom Challenger 2 14 March Yes Germany Leopard 2A6 14 March Yes Poland Leopard 2 14 February Yes Portugal Leopard 2 4 Yes Norway Leopard 2 8 Yes Spain Leopard 2 40 No Finland Leopard 2 10 No Netherlands Leopard 2 18 No Canada Leopard 2 4 No United States M1A2 Abrams 31 July? Yes France Leclerc ? No What’s absolutely confirmed at the moment appears to be 14 Challengers, 28 Leopard 2s, and 31 Abrams. Both the Challengers and those first 28 Leopard 2s are likely to be in Ukraine around the end of March (that date was confirmed by both Germany and the U.K. this morning). Poland may actually get their tanks across the border first, but training is the real obstacle to moving faster. When the U.S. Abrams will appear isn’t known, but figure that it likely take at least six months before the first crews are sufficiently trained to operate and maintain the American tank. Also, there continue to be questions about just where these tanks will be sourced, which could push deliveries out further.

So 87 Western main battle tanks is the bare minimum heading toward Ukraine. However, it’s a long way from the maximum.

The actual number that is likely to come from Germany alone looks to be over 100. However, these tanks will be delivered in tranches as they are fitted out and repaired by manufacturer Rheinmetall (the actual number of functional tanks in German service at this point is thought to be around 300, and they’re unlikely to dip too far into that number). When it comes to Spain, newspapers have published both that number of 40 and a higher number of 53, neither of which is confirmed at this point. Overall, assuming everything gets confirmed, the number of Leopards comes up to over 200.

And that’s before you toss in the fact that several countries are also mulling sending older Leopard 1 tanks, and France is talking about sending an unknown number of its Leclerc main battle tank. Because the logistics issue in Ukraine isn’t complicated enough already. (Some papers are also pushing the idea that Denmark wants to send “20 Piranha tanks from Switzerland,” but if the Piranha is a tank, then a Bradley is also a tank.)

Take a break, dude. You’ve earned it.

If that number seems like a lot of tanks, keep in mind that Western allies have already sent Ukraine some 450 tanks in the form of refitted Soviet-era hardware, most of them some version of T-72. Still, that’s not the biggest source of new tanks for Ukraine since the war began. If you go through the numbers at Oryx, you’ll find that Russia has “donated” 545 tanks to Ukraine.

That’s right. At this point, Ukraine has obtained more tanks from Russia than from all other sources combined. The tractor brigade has been very, very busy.

But of course, the hope is that the next group of tanks to arrive on the ground in Ukraine will be far more effective than even the best of the upgraded Soviet fleet. And hopefully, much better than Russian tanks in the hands of Russian drivers.

x The second army of the world pic.twitter.com/oQmIdDLOY7 — bigSAC™ (@bigSAC10) January 26, 2023

Russian military sources seem to be aware of this, especially noting that, “Even in export versions, the Abrams M1A2 SEP v.2 variant significantly outperforms any Russian production tank.” However, those Russian experts are not really worried. Of course not. “Most likely,” experts say, “the Russian army will grind all these heavy weapons.”

How that “grinding” will happen isn’t clear. The big call appears to be for the Russian defense industry to get off their collective ass and start cranking out more weapons for Russia, especially more advanced anti-tank weapons capable of taking out Western tanks (because it's doubtful the ones now deployed in Ukraine can do the job). There’s also this delightful paragraph.

Now Russian tanks use old Soviet shells in their ammunition, - says Pukhov. - Their capabilities are sufficient to defeat tanks such as T-64, T-72, T-80 at relatively short distances of tank battles. But the emergence of Western tanks with powerful guns, modern armor-piercing shells and fire control systems can lead to a sharp increase in the distances of tank battles. In such a duel, we may find ourselves in disadvantageous conditions. The lack of old shells may also affect. Very few new ones have been produced so far.

Sounds like there will definitely be some grinding ahead … only maybe not of those Western tanks.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense knows how to break your heart with a single image.

x Since the beginning of the large scale russian invasion, at least 459 children in Ukraine have been killed, and 917 have been injured.@GP_Ukraine #russianwarcrimes pic.twitter.com/JJOeleCBgN — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 26, 2023

For the last several days, pro-Russian sites have been pushing the idea that Russia is making significant advances in the area of Vuhledar, on the southern part of the front about 50km southwest of Donetsk. Though Russian sites are claiming that they “liberated” the town, it’s unclear that any Russian forces have actually come within kilometers of Vuhledar. Instead, they’ve been bombarding the town with artillery, TOS thermobaric bombs, and over the last hours with drones and missiles as part of a nationwide wave of attacks apparently meant to punish Ukraine for their success in obtaining Western weapons.

x The Russians published a video in which they destroy the Ukrainian town of #Vuhledar with the help of multiple rocket launcher TOS-1A with thermobaric warheads.

Civilians, including children, still live in the town. Russians like to destroy Ukrainians' homes with families inside. pic.twitter.com/Za9iMs6dCc — Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) January 25, 2023

So far as I’ve been able to determine, actual lines of control in the area have moved only slightly, with Russia taking a small area south of the town that Ukraine took at the beginning of winter, then almost immediately losing that area again. This appears to be part of the whole illusory “big Zaporizhzhia offensive” that Russia supposedly mounted around the start of the year and which has been the centerpiece of pro-Russian Telegram and Twitter for weeks. So far, Vuhledar looks to be the only part of that “big offensive” that actually exists on the ground.

As of Thursday, Russian efforts to actually enter Vuhledar appear to have generated another military disaster for Russia, with at least seven APCs and dozens of infantry lost as they tried to cross open fields. It’s unclear if they have forces on hand to make another run.

Even though Russia hasn’t taken the town, the damage being done to Vuhledar by the combination of ranged weapons is severe, and the loss of civilian lives is thought to be high. As usual, Russia seems intent on liberating Vuhledar from existence. As usual, they’re paying an enormous cost.

As usual, Moscow seems to find this a perfectly acceptable tradeoff.

Ukrainian forces in the woods just south of Kreminna repelled an attempted Russian counterattack on Wednesday, turning back Russian forces and burning through a lot of .50 cal ammo in the process.

However, Ukraine reportedly lost two M777 artillery guns to a strike by Russian Lancet drones, which continue to give Russia a weapon that can outrange the D30 howitzer deployed along much of the front.

x 🤡 The propagandists suddenly started barking at each other because the Ukrainians are not afraid of the Russian occupiers. pic.twitter.com/thzqJnuNZY — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) January 26, 2023

Markos and Kerry are joined by University of St. Andrews Professor of Strategic Studies, Phillips P. O’Brien. O’Brien, an expert in military history, explains how we got to where we are right now, what is unique about the world’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the parallels between the conservative movement’s isolationism in World War II and now.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/26/2149365/-Ukraine-update-When-all-else-fails-Russia-can-still-depend-on-Donald-Trump-to-spread-weakness

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